1. Developing a Framework for Modeling and Simulating Aedes aegypti and Dengue Fever Dynamics Tiago Lima (UFOP), Tiago Carneiro (UFOP), Raquel Lana (Fiocruz), Cláudia Codeço (Fiocruz), Raian Maretto (INPE), Liliam Medeiros (UNESP), Leandro Silva (UFOP), Leonardo Santos (INPE), Isabel Reis (Fiocruz), Flávio Coelho (FGV), Antonio Miguel Monteiro (INPE)

2. Controlling dengue fever and its vector is a public health challenge Disease presents a complex temporal-spatial dynamic - Meteorological variables interfere in developmental stages of the vector - Social and demographic aspects could help to increase dengue incidence - unplanned urbanization - precariousness of garbage collection and water supply Introduction

3. Several models have being developed aiming to - understand the dynamics of vetor population and disease transmission - predict epidemic outbreaks - analyze and evaluate the impact of control strategies - but they are not easily applicable to other contexts and studies There are some generic frameworks focusing on diseases spread on global scale we need solutions with focus on dengue and targeting local dynamics at intra-urban scales Introduction

4. A tool for helping the designing of site-specific and population-specific control strategies for dengue To reach this goal, a framework should provide - integration with GIS - a collection of built in models - a modeling language that supports both population models and individual-based models - a friendly GUI for easy building and configuration - a flexible and extensible architecture to allow contribution from users DengueME (Dengue Modeling Environment) framework an open source tool aiming to support modeling and simulation of spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue fever and its vector Objectives

5. Framework should provides services to support the development of models and evaluation of intervention scenarios applied to real case studies support communication with geographical databases enable development of multi-scale models and use of different paradigms offer a common and easy to use language for model implementation offer a basic library of built-in models which can be customized and combined to generate specific models provide a friendly graphical user interface for creating, configuring and running built-in and user defined models extensible - enable adding of new models to its library DengueME Framework: requirements and design

6. DengueME Framework: architecture

7. TerraME - a software platform for environmental modeling and simulation DengueME architecture: TerraME

8. Dynamics of dengue is governed by a complex interaction between humans, mosquitoes, viruses, on a heterogeneous landscape Vector Models population dynamics of Aedes aegypti with differential equations modeling variation stock at each life stage under the influence of environmental carrying capacity and the climate Host Models demographic dynamic of the human population in the study area differential equations describing the stock of individuals or individual-based model Transmission Models Virus transmission process depends on the amount of susceptible and infected (people or mosquitoes) DengueME architecture: Models

9. Mobility Models Describes the mobility and commutation of humans and vectors spread of viruses and vectors is facilitated by the flow of individuals from a no mobility or random mobility to a complex model based on real data Landscape Class Models Urban landscape interferes in the dynamics of dengue transmission as it introduces heterogeneity in the availability of breeding sites for Aedes aegypti landscape component provides a landscape classification model to describes the space from a homogeneous space to sophisticated techniques for segmentation and classification DengueME architecture: Models

10. Potential end-users of DengueME are not experts in programming techiniques reduce barriers related to using programming languages and facilitate the framework utilization DengueME Visual Development Environment provide services to help users to perform the required steps for developing models and defining scenarios allows to configure built-in or imported models helps to create scenarios through the selection and combination of sub-models and their parameterization DengueME architecture: VDE

13. The work is under development - design and implementation of framework - build-in models - three vector models implemented and applied to a case study - a host and transmission models implemented and applied to a case study - visual development environment Results

14. Using DengueME to evaluate the impact of local interventions on dengue vector density Results

15. Using DengueME to study epidemic scenarios Results

18. Despite the success of mathematical models in explaining Aedes aegypti spatial dynamics and dengue transmission, there is still a need to stimulate their use to assist the planning of dengue control interventions model reuse is still a challenge models and tools can not require experience in programming or great expertise in modeling development, database management and model-data integration it is required to understand the model assumptions to correctly use them DengueME framework services for modeling and simulation dynamics of dengue in urban environments a library of built in models a visual development environment that provides friendly graphical user interface an open and extensible architecture Final remarks

19. developing and incorporating new models into the framework enable addition of new models Future works Model.lua Config.xml

20. Questions? Suggestions? Acknowledgments