1. MANA 4328 Dr. George Benson benson@uta.edu
HR Planning
MANA 4328
Dr. George Benson 1

2. HR Planning How many people do we need? Where are they coming from?
Product Demand X Labor Productivity
Turnover
Where are they coming from?
Internal Labor Market
Existing employees
External Labor Market
Potential employees

3. HR Forecasts Labor demand Strategic Planning Succession Planning
Managing Retention
Labor supply
Labor markets
Specific shortages
Labor Demand
Labor Supply

4. Forecasting Labor Requirements
Total labor requirements
Productivity and FTE employees
Scheduling and shifts
High volume / traffic times
Internal Labor Market
An internal survey of Houston Police Department officers eligible for retirement in 2004 found that 534 plan to leave that year - a 300% increase over recent years that translates into 1 in 10 officers.
External Labor Market
CVS disclosed in its annual report that it was forced to cut pharmacy hours in 2003 due to lack to qualified pharmacists.

5. Forecasting Techniques
Budgeting
Statistical Techniques
Trend analysis
Regression
Probability models
Qualitative Techniques
Ask the experts / Delphi Technique
Needs are then compared to current workforce to identify gaps and decide staffing actions.

6. Trend Analysis of HR Demand
BUSINESS  LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCES FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEMAND
YEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS) (SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES)
1997 $2,
1998 $2,
1999 $2,
2000 $3,
2001 $3,
2002 $3,
2003 $3,
2004* $4,
2005* $4,
2006* $4,
*Projected figures

7. Forecasting Supply of Employees
Staffing Tables
Markov Analysis
Skill Inventories
Replacement Charts
Succession Planning

8. Forecasting Internal Labor Supply
Staffing Tables
Graphic representations of the number of employees currently occupying certain jobs and future (monthly or yearly) employment requirements.
Markov Analysis
A method for tracking the pattern of employee promotions up through and organization.

9. Markov Analysis for a Retail Company

10. Internal Demand Forecasting Tools
Skill Inventories
Databases of employee KSA’s, education, and used to match job openings with employee backgrounds.
Replacement Charts
Listings of current jobholders and persons who are potential replacements if an opening occurs.
Succession Planning
The process of identifying, developing, and tracking key individuals for executive positions.

11. Replacement Charts

12. Forecasting Databases
PeopleSoft, SAP and Many Others
“Army Leads the Way in Forecasting Its Hiring Needs” Washington Post April 29, 2001
(WASS) Workforce Analysis &Support System
WASS holds 25 years' worth of data on Army civil service jobs and can be used to analyze long-term workforce trends.
(CIVFORS) Civilian Forecasting System
Computerized Forecasting System
Army hires 25,000 people annually by 2007

13. CIVFORS Projections Based On:
Life-cycle modeling of the civilian workforce based on:
Promotions
Reassignments
Retirements
Separations
Time series forecasting techniques used to compute probabilities of events such as retirement and turnover.
Historical data and personnel characteristics are used as predictors of future behavior.

14. Shifting Age Distributions in the Civilian Workforce
Since 1989
Significant decrease in age groups less than 44
Build-up of retirement eligibles
Strength
FY89
Median Age 42
FY01
Median Age 48
The aging issue has been predicted for sometime - in large part it is a result of how we downsized - not replacing behind losses we went from an median age of 42 in FY 89 to an median age of 48 in Sep FY 01 and built-up retirement eligible populations
STOP! Hand out and review Stat Terms slide 2 (“averages”).
Chart shows Age Distribution and how it has changed over time (FY89 vs 00). The aging issue has been predicted for sometime - in large part it is a result of how we downsized - not replacing behind losses we went from an median age of 42 in FY 89 to an median age of 48 in Sep FY 00 and build-up retirement eligible populations
Ask: How might age distribution affect our workforce? (experience levels, retirement eligibility, higher grade levels, etc.). Continuity of the workforce could be a problem.
Data for this charts came from WASS. The chart was developed in Excel. You will duplicate this chart using WASS for your population of interest (cmd, car prog, etc).
Age
U.S. Citizen, Direct Hire, Appropriated Fund, Military & Civil Functions

15. Staffing Actions Recruiting new employees
Developing existing employees
Retaining key employees
Restructuring or redeployment
Outsourcing functions
Using contingent employees
Reassigning shifts

16. Forecasting for Shift Coverage
Employees are needed to be present at all times.
Examples: Retail stores, call centers, nurses etc.
Need to account for productivity, peak demand, and time off to determine how many people to hire.
“Vacancy Factor”

17. “Vacancy Factor”
Indicates how many persons it takes to fill a position for a single shift, taking into account vacation, sick leave, training days, and other types of leave.
Total the number of days-off for all dispatchers including days off per week, vacation, sick time, training days etc.
Divide the total by the number of employees to obtain an individual average days-off per employee.
Subtract the above figure from 365 (days in a year) to estimate the average "days-on” per employee.
Divide 365 by the above number to obtain the vacancy or factor call centers average between 1.4 to 1.7.