1. Gifted Presentation Mike Nicholson, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation

2. Fundamental Consideration of Growth Growth = Observed - Baseline

3. Mean Gain Model Because the prior year’s scale is consistent with the current year’s, value-added can be figured in terms of gain. Though superficial observations may assume this methodology is a simple pre- test / post-test algorithm, further study of the approach reveal similar rigor as the SOAR process. How often do schools have students who never move or who always have complete test records? Students with more complete testing histories count more in the estimated yearly means. BaselineObservedGrowth

4. Scaled Score Units for Expressing Growth If the distributions of achievement across grades within a subject area are generally equivalent, then the units for reporting growth can remain in scaled scores. –The inference is that for students to maintain their place in the distribution of achievement, no matter their starting point, the progress they would need to make is the same Low Achiever’s needed growth to maintain position across years High Achiever’s needed growth to maintain position across years

5. Normal Curve Equivalent

6. Fixing the Growth Standard Student Takes Test Test score is converted to state NCE, given the conversion values of the fixed year. 123 New NCE is compared to prior year’s NCE to estimate growth. Growth=new NCE – prior NCE

7. Viewing a school report in a mean gain model

8. Baseline Observed School Effect

9. Viewing a school report in a mean gain model Baseline Observed School Effect

10. Upward Shed Pattern

11. Reverse TeePee Pattern

12. TeePee Pattern

13. Downward Shed Pattern

14. Copyright ©2006. Battelle for Kids. How does a student’s growth rate compare to other groups of students? Student Report  SAS Institute Inc. Used with permission.

15. School A School B School D School F School H School J School L School N School P School C School E School G School I School K School M School O SAMPLE

16. Student predictions to Advanced on 5 th grade OATs are based on the most information available

17. Gifted Hot Topics Ceiling Effect Regression to the Mean Evaluating Programming Options – Shared instructional responsibility? Adequately Challenging High Achieving Students Placement of Students / Cluster Grouping AYP and VA are not the same thing Etc.

18. How often do students score within the Top 3 Scaled Score Points two years in a Row? SubjectStudents Considered Percentage of students scoring within the top three scaled scores on OAT two years in a row 4 th Gd. Reading26,5110.18% 4 th Gd. Math26,5110.15% 5 th Gd. Reading26,6950.12% 5 th Gd. Math26,6950.21% 6 th Gd. Reading26,7180.04% 6 th Gd. Math26,7180.05% 7 th Gd. Reading26,6990.04% 7 th Gd. Math26,6990.01% 8 th Gd. Reading27,9190.19% 8 th Gd. Math27,9190.05%

19. How did the Suburban Districts Do, in particular? The highest percentage of students scoring within the top three scaled scores two years in a row was a little over 2%. Five wealthy Ohio suburban school districts had the following highest (district best) rates of students scoring within the top 3 scaled scores 2 years in a row: –District A – 2/172 (1.16%): 8 th gd. Reading –District B – 7/612 (1.14%): 5 th gd. Math –District C – 5/266 (1.88%): 4 th gd. Math –District D – 1/77 (1.30%): 4 th gd. Math –District E – 1/58 (1.72%): 5 th gd. Math –These were the highest rates these districts saw for any grade for students repeating top-3 scaled score performances across years within an OAT subject

20. Evaluating Gifted Programs? Need to Verify Rosters?

21. Demonstrating Relationship between Random Error and Observed Scores