1. “Flood Risk, I know it when I see it” …or not… Policy Considerations when Quantifying Flood Risk National Flood Risk Policy Summit July 13, 2009 Cambridge, MD Doug Plasencia, P.E., CFM

2. Do we have a common understanding?  RELIGION  FLOOD RISK

3. A Flood Risk Management strategy has broad implications  Introduces “risk continuum” vs. “at risk or not at risk”  Opens the door for considering a series of actions that increase or decrease risk  Should allow the ability to benchmark and monitor risk at various levels  Can and should be more than flood damage

4. A Robust Risk strategy includes  Property  Environment  Health and Safety  Recognition that risk perception is influenced by changing world views and cultural norms  Other

5. To be meaningful a risk strategy should  Benchmarks and monitors risk  Is predictive vs. reactive  Includes a focus on modifying risk behavior

6. Questions to resolve in quantifying risk  Which management outcomes?  Which method(s) to be used?  Is consistency between agencies required ?  Is consistency between agencies desirable?  Is risk a single number?  At what level(s) do we quantify and monitor?

7. How we quantify will influence reporting  Single Number “Dow Jones” like indicator?  Dash Board  Monitor multiple management objectives  Report Card  Perhaps most reactive technique

8.  3 rd Gilbert F. White Flood Policy Forum & Symposia  Symposia 1 - Quantifying Flood Risk (September 2009)  Symposia 2 - Communicating Flood Risk (November 2009)  Forum - Managing Flood Risk (March 2010)

9. To Quantify Risk we Should…  Consider our management outcomes  Evaluate risk quantification methods and strategies against specific outcomes  Adapt the method (s) in order to best support these management outcomes  Coordinate, collaborate, and strive for a reasonable degree of consistency in approach and outcomes  Recognize that risk management will evolve with changing needs

10. QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION National Flood Risk Policy Summit July 13, 2009 Cambridge, MD Doug Plasencia, P.E., CFM

11. What is flood risk?  Single or discrete event- Probability of Flood Event X Damage or for 100-year event (P100*D100)  Perhaps allows consideration of residual risk  Probabilty Exceedance X damage or (PE100 X Damage)  (P100*D100)+(PE100*D100)  Continuous distribution – Sum of ((P1*D1) + (P10*D10) +….P500*D500))  Perhaps annualized  Other Measures of Risk  Non Monetized Impacts- (loss of life or casualties)?  Days of disruption?  Environmental Degradation?