HYSPLIT Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model Radionuclide Applications Roland Draxler NOAA Air Resources Laboratory This presentation.

HYSPLIT Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model Radionuclide Applications Roland Draxler NOAA Air Resources Laboratory This presentation is intended for those interested in using HYSPLIT to conduct simulations with radionuclide pollutants to create air concentration, deposition, and dose output. Some familiarity with basic procedures in configuring and running HYSPLIT is expected. The presentation will focus on various programs related to processing HYSPLIT output for radionuclide simulations, the required calling sequence, and their command line options. Examples will be presented using realistic parameters related to the Fukushima accident. This presentation is available for download from

Air Resources Laboratory
HYSPLIT Overview HYSPLIT is not just a transport and dispersion model but a complete system for computing trajectories, dispersion, and deposition Can be applied to different air quality problems Specific applications depend upon configuration of input files and the use of pre- and post-processing executables Executable library contains over 100 applications This presentation is a highly technical focus on configuring the model for radiological applications This presentation was developed as a reference document The typical HYSPLIT installation consists of a Graphical User Interface (GUI) to configure the model and provide a limited number of simulation scripts to automate tasks. In addition, each application accessed through the GUI contains a context sensitive help file linked to that application or program. In addition to the basic trajectory and dispersion model, the HYSPLIT executables directory contains over 100 different pre- and post-processing (that is before or after the main HYSPLIT model) programs to manipulate the input or output data or convert the results to PostScript graphics. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

HYSPLIT Computational particle is a surrogate for a radionuclide gas or particle A single computational particle may represent one or more radionuclides A particle follows the mean motion of the spatially and temporally varying wind field Random velocities are added to the mean motion to represent turbulence All subsequent examples will focus on the period of March 2011 during the Fukushima accident HYSPLIT is a three-dimensional Lagrangian particle model which uses externally generated temporally- and spatially-varying gridded meteorological data to transport and disperse pollutant gases and particles. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

133Xe Example Radionuclide mass is assigned to each particle Mass is decayed after it is released A user defined three-dimensional grid covers the domain Particle masses are summed in each grid cell The mass sum is divided by the grid cell volume to obtain air concentration Each particle is assigned some fraction of the pollutant mass released and as those particles pass over the computational domain their masses are summed and divided by a grid cell volume to obtain air concentration. The resolution of the concentration grid is user defined and independent of the resolution of the meteorological data driving the particle transport and dispersion. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Meteorology HYSPLIT requires data in a special direct-access fixed record format NCEP operationally produces forecast files and they are available for FTP Top left shows the highest resolution routinely available (4 km) at every 20th grid point Bottom, zoomed over the Washington DC area showing every grid point Forecast and archive data for the CONUS and globally are available: ftp://arlftp.arlhq.noaa.gov/pub/ All the Fukushima examples use results from our own 4-km WRF-ARW simulation In addition to the URL quoted in the slide, current forecast meteorological data in a HYSPLIT compatible format are available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) server ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hysplit/prod. The Fukushima examples shown here used meteorological fields generated at NOAA-ARL using the WRF-ARW model at 4-km resolution and with a 20-min output frequency. The WRF simulations used NOAA’s global model for initial and boundary conditions. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

HYSPLIT Availability Platforms Windows MAC OS LINUX Web Interface Tcl/Tk Command line restricted user access for nuclear configuration options The HYSPLIT package with executables for Windows and MAC OS is available for download from There are two flavors, a trial version and a registered version. They are identical in all respects except that the trial version does not permit calculations using forecast meteorological data. Yesterday’s forecast is not considered a forecast in terms of the restriction on the use of the trial version. Registered user’s can request the LINUX distribution which must be locally compiled. HYSPLIT can be run through its Graphical User Interface (GUI) or from the command line. The GUI is used primarily to configure the input files for each simulation. However, the GUI also contains scripts to automate certain applications. Only a few of the radiological applications presented in the following examples can be executed through the GUI. In addition to the local version of HYSPLIT, for official use only applications certain radiological simulations can also be run through the web from the URL indicated in the slide. However, the web version contains many restrictions in terms of run duration, meteorological data, grid resolution, and number of pollutants, to limit the computational demands on the server. The downloaded versions have no run-time restrictions. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

HYSPLIT Assumptions Minimum model integration time step = 1 minute Then minimum resolution: 5 m/s * 60 s = 300 m Standard simulation decay starts at the time of emission Different radioactive decay scenarios must be treated in the post-processing step In the following Fukushima examples the emission were decay corrected to the reactor shutdown time: UTC 11 March Daughter products are not handled directly Currently the minimum HYSPLIT integration time step is one minute which when assuming an average wind speed of 5 m/s results in a minimum spatial resolution of about 300 m. Although HYSPLIT can be used over finer spatial scales, the concentration patterns will be the result of linear interpolation between the 1-minute data points. When radioactive decay is defined in a simulation, the decay always starts at the time the pollutant is emitted. Therefore, the emission amount must be decay corrected to the time of emission. Furthermore, once a pollutant has deposited, it is no longer decayed after that time period has been written to the output file. As will be shown in subsequent examples, for more realistic simulations, especially those using short half-life pollutants, decay should be applied as a post-processing step to the HYSPLIT output. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Simple Computational Framework input model output post-processing
control namelist meteorology HYSPLIT CONCPLOT binary air concentration and deposition CON2STN C2DATEM TIMEPLOT In a typical HYSPLIT simulation, the model is configured through a CONTROL file with various simulation parameters and a namelist file, usually called SETUP.CFG, which determines the interpretation of some of the parameters in the CONTROL file, and can be used to change some of the model physics options. In addition, a gridded meteorological data file is also required. The HYSPLIT air concentration and deposition output file is a binary file (big-endian). Post-processing programs are required to extract predictions at a point (CON2STN, C2DATEM), plot maps of concentration or deposition (CONCPLOT), or a time series of air concentrations (TIMEPLOT). These programs can be called through the GUI or from the command line. All executables reside in the /hysplit4/exec directory. Executing a program without any command line options will bring up a simplified help display listing each command line option. All the following examples have been configured for demonstration purposes and computational speed! 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

The CONTROL file 2 51 1 /meteorology/wrf_arl/ W03_ bin CPAR 5.887E+13 51.0 ./ fdnpp.bin 0 100 E E-05 0.0 Average emissions in layer m AGL Average emission rate Cs-137 in Bq/h for a duration of 51 hours Although the Fukushima accident atmospheric emissions continued for over one month, most of the contamination of the Japan land areas occurred over only three periods. The first of which was between March 14 – 16, This slide shows the CONTROL file for the base simulation that will be used in most of the subsequent examples. The calculation starts at 0900 UTC on the 14th and continues for 51 hours through 1200 UTC on the 16th. Particles will be emitted uniformly in a layer from 1 to 100 m above ground level (AGL) and the average emission rate for Cs-137 particles (CPAR) over this 51 h period will be 5.887x1013 Bq per hour (according to UNSCEAR). The output file will be called FDNPP.BIN and contain two levels, a deposition level at 0 m and an air concentration layer from 0 to 100 m AGL. Both dry (0.001 m/s) and wet (8x10-5 /s) deposition will be included in the simulation. Binary output file Dry and wet deposition Decay (days) 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

The namelist file: SETUP.CFG &SETUP delt = 5.0, Time step = 5 minutes khmax = 24, Delete particles after 24 h numpar = -2500, Release 2500 particles / h / 5.887E+13 Bq/h / 2500 p/h = 2.355E+10 Bq/p 2.355E+10 Bq / 5000 m / 5000 m / 100 m = Bq/m3 The minimum concentration for one time-step without deposition: The simulation configuration used here was primarily intended to provide quick results for demonstration purposes. A more realistic simulation would use a greater particle number release rate (to lower the minimum predictable concentration) and only delete particles when they are no longer in the computational domain. Note a negative value for NUMPAR sets the |value| as the particle release rate rather than a positive value which indicates the total number of particles to be released. The complete namelist file is shown below. Note some of the values (RHB, RHT, VSCALE) are optimized for the high resolution WRF meteorological data. &SETUP delt = 5.0, initd = 0, khmax = 24, numpar = -2500, maxpar = , efile = '', krand = 1, vscales = 5.0, vscaleu = 200.0, kmix0 = 150, rhb = 100, rht = 80, / Now just run HYSPLIT: ..\exec\hycs_std 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Post-Processing C2DATEM -ifdnpp.bin input = HYSPLIT output file -oTokai.txt output = text file at Tokai-Mura -mJAEA_C137.txt match model to measured data -c convert Bq to mBq -z2 use level=2 of input file TIMEPLOT -iTokai.txt model predictions input text file -sJAEA_C137.txt measured data file CONAVGPD -ifdnpp.bin -odeposit.bin binary output file deposit.bin -a b between period March -m convert Bq to kBq -r1 sum values=1 rather than average=0 CONCPLOT -ideposit.bin plot binary deposition file -h37.0: g0:500 force map 500 km radius centered -ukBq force units label -c4 -v force contours After the HYSPLIT simulation has completed, the four post-processing programs shown above will be applied to the model calculations. First, C2DATEM will extract the model predictions corresponding to each measurement in the file JAEA_C137.txt (measurements by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency at Tokai-mura) and the results will be written to Tokai.txt. Second, the time series of measured and calculated concentrations will be generated by TIMEPLOT. Third, the accumulated concentrations (both ground and air) for the computational period will be created by CONAVGPD as a binary file converted from Bq to kBq. However, we are only interested in the accumulated deposition. Accumulated air concentration has no specific application. However, if the accumulated air concentration were to be divided by 17 (the number of time periods) using a conversion factor –m0.0588, then the output would be the average air concentration for the period. Finally, the deposition is plotted on a map using CONCPLOT forcing the map domain and contour values. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

HYSPLIT predictions at Tokai-mura DATEM formatted output from program c2datem fdnpp.bin year mn dy shr dur Lat Lon mBq/m id The measurement data (JAEA_C137.txt) are shown below. Particulate Cs-137 at JAEA (mBq/m3) year mn dy shr dur Lat Lon mBq/m3 stn ident E jaea E jaea E jaea E jaea E jaea E jaea E jaea E jaea The measured data file JAEA_C137.txt looks just like the file contents shown above except the concentration values are measured rather than model predictions. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Simulation Results using Constant Emission rate
Model Although we know the emissions were quite variable in time, the simulation using WRF data and using a constant emission rate captured the double peaks in air concentration shown at Tokai-mura as the plume swept from the south to the west and back to the south during this period. Measured concentrations are shown in black and model predictions in red. With respect to deposition refer back to the measurements shown in slide 6. set PGM=c:\home\hysplit4\exec %PGM%\c2datem -ifdnpp.bin -oTokai.txt -mJAEA_C137.txt -c z2 ECHO 'TITLE^&','Cs-137 time series at Tokai-mura^&' >LABELS.CFG ECHO 'UNITS^&',' mBq^&' >>LABELS.CFG %PGM%\timeplot -iTokai.txt -sJAEA_C137.txt -p2 -r2 -y %PGM%\conavgpd -ifdnpp.bin -odeposit.bin -a b m r1 ECHO 'TITLE^&','Cs-137 deposition %RUN% ^&' >LABELS.CFG ECHO 'UNITS^&',' kBq^&' >>LABELS.CFG %PGM%\concplot -ideposit.bin -z95 -m1 -h37.0: g0:500 -ukBq -b0 -t0 -k2 -c4 -v Measured 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Simulation using Time-Varying Emissions
Define emissions file with namelist variable: efile = 'EMITIMES' Turn off emissions in the control file: 1 CPAR 5.887E+13 51.0 1 CPAR 0.0 Note the Cs-137 emission rate is highly variable during this two day period due to planned ventings and unplanned explosions. Therefore, rather than defining a constant emission rate in the CONTROL file (the only option), an external emission file can be defined in the SETUP.CFG file. The values defined in this file (next slide) will supersede the emission rate defined in the CONTROL file. However as a precaution, it is highly recommended that the CONTROL file emission values should be set to zero because if the emissions are not defined correctly in the EMITIMES file, the model will default to using the CONTROL file values. This default substitution would only be evident to the most experienced users as indicated by the lack of any messages in the MESSAGE file indicating the reading of values from EMITIMES. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Extract from the EMITIMES file for time-varying emissions YYYY MM DD HH DURATION(hhhh) #RECORDS YYYY MM DD HH MM DURATION(hhmm) LAT LON HGT(m) RATE(/h) AREA(m2) HEAT(w) E E E E E E E E E E + 12 more time periods! doi: /acpd ). The EMITIMES file format is such that an emission record is required for each location in the CONTROL file, hence the same emission values at 1 and 100 m AGL. The complete EMITIMES file follows: For the most recent emission estimates see Katada et al., 2014 (Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 14, 14725–14832, 2014 YYYY MM DD HH DURATION(hhhh) #RECORDS YYYY MM DD HH MM DURATION(hhmm) LAT LON HGT(m) RATE(/h) AREA(m2) HEAT(w) E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Simulation Results using a Variable Emission Rate
These results are comparable to the constant emission rate results shown in slide 13, however note the improved performance of the mode at the beginning and end of the simulation period. As noted earlier, the drop in concentrations in the middle was due to the winds moving material away from Tokai-mura. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Converting Concentration to Dose
For Cs-137 (published multiple sources): E-11 (rem/h) / (Bq/m3) for air concentration E-12 (rem/h) / (Bq/m2) for deposition CONCPLOT command line add: -x3.34E-05 to convert air concentration to -rem/h -y1.08E-06 to convert deposition to -rem/h -r2 to time-accumulate deposition Cloud shine dose not accumulate like ground shine in this simple approach (using CONCPLOT) Without any additional software, the concentration plotting program, or any post-processing program with a data conversion option can be used to compute dose. Using well established (and published) dose conversion factors for 137Cs and a units conversion factor to go from rem to -rem, the conversion factors are just added as another option to the CONCPLOT command line. Note that the –r2 flag causes the model to accumulate the deposition field between time periods, so that the last time period contains the total deposition which can then be used to compute the ground-shine dose. Note this simple approach to dose conversion works best with long half-life radionuclides, otherwise decay is not properly accounted for in the deposition field. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Dose rates at +12 h and +48 h Cloud-Shine Dose rates for both ground- and cloud-shine are shown 12 hours into the simulation and at the end of the simulation. Note that after 12 h not much has yet deposited resulting in rather low dose rates. At the end of the simulation, the ground-shine dose is very similar to the deposition pattern shown in slide 16. To compute the total dose, both doses need to be added together using the post-processing program CONCSUM. This will be discussed in more detail in a later section. Ground-Shine 2100Z March 14 1200Z March 16 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

CON2DOSE: Legacy Dose Conversion
HYSPLIT simulation for a single species; includes emissions and decay Species ID must match entry in con2dose.dat table Binary file output with nine different doses: immersion, inhalation, bone, lung, thyroid, acute, long-term, effective, total Table conversion units in m-rem/h per Ci/m3 (mrem/hr) Inhalation ( ) Air Depos. Depos. Depos. (uCi/m**3) Submersion Ext. Exp. Ext day dose Acute Acute CDE Ext. EDE Rate EDE Non-arid/Resusp Nuclide CEDE Bone Lung Thyroid (mrem/hr)/ (mR/hr)/ (mrem/hr)/ (mrem)/ Name year day 30-day 50-year (uCi/m**3) (uCi/m**2) (uCi/m**2) (uCi/m**2) ALL VALUES FROM FRMAC (1995) C E E E E E E E E+00 C E E E E E E E E+00 C E E E E E E E E-01 I E E E E E E E E-01 I E E E E E E E E-02 I E E E E E E E E-01 I E E E E E E E E-02 I E E E E E E E E-01 X E E E E E E E E-02 Kr E E E E E E E E-03 Another approach to computing dose from a simple single species HYSPLIT simulation is to use the CON2DOSE program. This is a legacy application and it has been superseded by more complex approaches. This program is not part of the executable distribution although it is part of the source code library. It does have some unique features in that it will compute nine different doses from a single simulation. However, as will be seen in subsequent sections, the decay corrections need to be applied in the post-processing phase rather than during the HYSPLIT simulation. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

HYSPLIT Simple Configuration Summary
Emissions must be decay corrected to the time of release Multiple species can be tracked in the same simulation Decay is applied only during the calculation phase Once written to the output file it no longer decays Dose conversion factors can be applied to the output For total dose, concentration and deposition can be added The longer the half-life the lesser the concern about decay In the simple HYSPLIT radiological configuration, the species characteristics, emission rate, and decay must be specified for each simulation. For deposition and air concentration decay is only applied during the calculation. Once the data have been written to the output file, decay can no longer be applied. This can be mitigated by writing deposition to the output file only at the end of the simulation. However, the subsequent dose calculation will not include the fact that the average deposition during the exposure period must be some larger value than the final value written to the file. This is the primary reason why post-processing of dose calculations is recommended. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Transfer Coefficient Matrix (TCM) Configuration
Each emission time is treated as an independent simulation Manually configured (no limits) Automatically configured (one species) A unit source emission rate is required Time-varying emissions are treated in the post-processing Dose can be computed from multiple radiological species Source terms can be computed from measurement data This approach permits air concentrations to be recalculated without rerunning the dispersion model as new emission estimates are developed When the simulation is divided in such a way that each emission period is its own independent calculation, then the results can be organized in matrix form such that we can represent each emission time as a column and each concentration grid point or downwind location (or measurement site) on a row. Then the row sum represents the total calculated concentration while the column sum represents the contribution of that emission period to all downwind locations. The term Transfer Coefficient Matrix indicates how much mass is transferred from the columns to each row. If each emission period corresponds to the time interval over which the emissions have been defined and the dispersion calculation was run with a unit emission rate, then we can multiply the coefficient values for each column by its source term to obtain the calculated air concentration values. Multiple source term scenarios can be investigated without rerunning the dispersion model. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Multi-File TCM Computational Framework input model output post-processing control namelist meteorology CONDECAY CONMERGE HYSPLIT binary TG_{MMDDHH} CONDECAY applies time varying source and decay to unit-source dispersion model calculations CONMERGE combines all the emission time simulation files into a single output file There are two approaches to computing the TCM. The first approach is manual, identical to the simple configuration, but instead of a continuous emission, the model is run with only a 3 h emission period but for the full duration of the simulation. Each subsequent simulation starts 3 hours later and has a duration of 3 h less than the previous one and all simulations have a unique output file where the name indicates the start time of the emission (TG_{MMDDHH}). Post-processing programs will be used to create the air concentration and deposition output. Note: although we call this the manual method, in practice this approach would be scripted and multiple simulations can be run at the same time in a multi-processor computing environment. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

The First Two and the Last CONTROL File 2 51 1 /meteorology/wrf_arl/ W03_ bin CPAR 1.0 3.0 ./ TG_031409 2 48 1 /meteorology/wrf_arl/ W03_ bin CPAR 1.0 3.0 ./ TG_031412 2 3 1 /meteorology/wrf_arl/ W03_ bin CPAR 1.0 3.0 ./ TG_031609 This slide shows the changes to the basic CONTROL file (slide 9) in terms of the start time (red), duration (blue), and output file name (red) for each simulation. Note the emission rate and duration (green) are fixed at one unit per hour for three hours. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

CONDECAY processing HYSPLIT output CONDECAY output CONDECAY -3:1: :C137 +ecfactors +t031106 DG_031409 DG_031412 DG_031415 DG_mmddhh TG_031409 TG_031412 TG_031415 TG_mmddhh The emission rate in column 3 (Cs-137) of cfactors.txt is multiplied by species #1 in each TG file cfactors.txt should contain an emission rate corresponding with each start time of the TG files Decay is set to days and is started at 6Z of March 3rd Deposition and air concentration are decayed by default Once all the HYSPLIT simulations have been completed, 17 in this example, the output files are processed by the CONDECAY program which associates each dispersion file with the emission rate defined in the CFACTORS.TXT file for the time corresponding to the file name. The command line of CONDECAY associates each pollutant species in the file (in this case only one) with the appropriate column of CFACTORS.TXT, in this case column #3 for cesium. The half life is set as well as the 4-character pollutant ID that will be written to the output file for this conversion. Multiple species can be created in the same output file (DG_mmddhh) if there are multiple –(:::) entries on the command line. The CONDECAY program will automatically search for all input files consistent with TG_mmddhh wild card pattern from the times found in the CFACTORS.TXT file. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

The CFACTORS.TXT emissions file YYYY MM DD HH I131g I131p C137p E E E+12 E E E+13 E E E+13 E E E+13 E E E+13 E E E+13 E E E+13 E E E+13 E E E+14 E E E+13 E E E+12 E E E+12 E E E+13 E E E+14 E E E+13 E E E+13 E E E+13 Selecting the column in CONDECAY determines which species is represented by the HYSPLIT dispersion calculation Multiple species can be assigned to the same dispersion calculation Units of the emissions file are in Bq/h and in this case they are defined every three hours. The first two columns are for gaseous and particulate I-131, respectively. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

CONMERGE to create a single file conmerge -imergelist.txt -ofdnpp.bin Samples -> 1409 1412 1415 1418 1421 1500 DG_031409 xxxx DG_031412 DG_031415 DG_031418 DG_031421 DG_031500 mergelist fdnpp.bin The last step requires merging each of the individual emission time files, each with concentration and deposition output every three hours into a single file. This is done using the program CONMERGE that will add together the concentrations for the same output times for all the files defined in the input file MERGELIST.TXT (see below). The resulting binary output file FDNPP.BIN contains the column sums as indicated by the table shown. Only the first six output time periods are shown. The contents of file mergelist.txt: DG_031409 DG_031412 DG_031415 DG_031418 DG_031421 DG_031500 DG_031503 DG_031506 DG_031509 DG_031512 DG_031515 DG_031518 DG_031521 DG_031600 DG_031603 DG_031606 DG_031609 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Simulation Results using the manual TCM Approach
The results are very similar to slide 16, but not identical due to seed differences in the random number generated dispersion between the original single simulation and multiple simulations required by the TCM approach. set PGM=c:\home\hysplit4\exec %PGM%\condecay -3:1: :C137 +ecfactors +t031106 dir /b DG_?????? >mergelist.txt %PGM%\conmerge -imergelist.txt -ofdnpp.bin 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Single-File TCM Computational Framework input model output post-processing control namelist meteorology HYSPLIT single binary output file with each release time in its own array TCMSUM The previous process to create a dispersion simulation for each emission time period can be accomplished in one simulation. HYSPLIT will automatically cycle the 3 hour emission periods, but the particles released during each emission period will be tagged with a unique number that will be used to replace the pollutant index in the concentration array. Therefore, each release time will have its own concentration output, but within the same output file. The limitation of this approach is that only one pollutant species is permitted during a simulation because the pollutant array index has been replaced by the emission time index. The TCMSUM post-processing program can be used to extract the final concentration and deposition fields. The current code configuration limits each simulation to a single pollutant species 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

CONTROL SETUP.CFG HYSPLIT input 2 51 1 /meteorology/wrf_arl/ W03_ bin CPAR 1.0 3.0 ./ fdnpp_tcms.bin &SETUP delt = 5.0, initd = 0, khmax = 24, numpar = -2500, maxpar = , efile = '', krand = 1, vscales = 5.0, vscaleu = 200.0, kmix0 = 150, rhb = 100, rht = 80, qcycle = 3, ichem = 10, / A new emission cycle is started every 3 hours A concentration array element is created for each emission cycle; the element replaces the species index To run the single-file TCM calculation only a minor modification to the CONTROL and SETUP.CFG files is required. The CONTROL file is almost identical to the original except that a unit emission for a duration of three hours should be specified (green). In the SETUP.CFG file the emission cycling variable QCYCLE=3 and the flag ICHEM=10. The emission cycling starts a new 3 hour emission cycle every 3 hours and increments the emission index tag. The ICHEM flag forces the code to assign the particle’s emission time tag to the pollutant index of the concentration array, thereby permitting the output to be separated by emission time. An emission cycle consists of a release of one unit per hour for a duration of 3 h 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

TCMSUM processing HYSPLIT output TCMSUM -ifdnpp_tcms.bin -ofdnpp -t031106 -h -c3 -scfactors.txt -pC137 TCMSUM output fdnpp.bin fdnpp_tcms.bin select column 3 of the emissions file decay start time half-life days emissions file 4-character pollutant ID label in output file The TCMSUM program reads the HYSPLIT output file and associates column #3 of the cfactors.txt emission file with the unit source dispersion calculations for the appropriate emission times. The half-life, decay start time, and output pollutant ID are required just as in the CONDECAY program discussed previously. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Simulation Results using automated TCM Approach
set PGM=c:\home\hysplit4\exec %PGM%\tcmsum -ifdnpp_tcms.bin -ofdnpp -t h c3 -scfactors.txt -pC137 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Using a Multi-File TCM to Estimate the Emission Rate input model output post-processing control namelist meteorology C2ARRAY TCSOLVE HYSPLIT binary TG_{MMDDHH} C2ARRAY post-processing not yet available for single file TCMs TCSOLVE uses singular value decomposition to solve the coefficient matrix In the previous TCM examples the matrix attributes of the simulation were not really utilized to their full extent. Given a measurement data vector, in this case a time series of measurements at Tokai-mura, using linear algebra methods, we can find the source term vector that provides the best fit to the measurement data. In the context of linear algebra, we are solving the coefficient matrix. Two post-processing programs are required. The first program C2ARRAY converts the multiple unit source input files (single file TCM is not yet supported) into a Coefficient Matrix (CM) file so that each column represents a release time and each row a measurement location. Then TCSOLVE is used to find the emission rate vector. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

C2ARRAY processing converts multiple TCM files into a single coefficient matrix (CM) for the sampling locations defined in JAEA_C137.txt C2ARRAY -imergelist.txt -oc2array.csv -mJAEA_C137.txt -z2 list of unit source input files (TG_*) comma delimited CM output file DATEM formatted measured data at Tokai-mura Process level 2 (air concentration) of the input files The C2ARRAY program will extract the predicted concentrations for each emission time that correspond to the measurement time period at the location of the measurement as defined in the DATEM formatted input file and put that value into the appropriate row and column of the comma delimited output file. The DATEM format is a standard format used at NOAA-ARL for a variety of different measurement data. Most NOAA sponsored historical tracer experiments used for model verification are available in this format - 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

C2ARRAY.CSV 40617 40618 1.30E-12 9.79E-14 0.00E+00 1.03E+04 1.67E-13 5.85E-13 5.41E-13 1.10E+04 2.06E-13 6.65E-13 1.50E-12 1.47E-12 1.87E+05 5.27E-15 2.65E-15 1.06E-13 6.08E-14 3.83E+03 4.72E-15 1.03E-14 1.33E-14 4.05E+02 6.54E-15 2.62E-15 1.39E-15 4.35E-17 3.55E+02 5.80E-14 1.39E-13 3.29E-13 1.64E-13 4.00E-15 5.43E-15 2.25E-14 5.81E+03 1.51E-14 5.88E-14 3.52E-14 2.95E-15 3.36E+02 The column emission time headings are consistent with the date structure in most spreadsheet and plotting programs. The units of the measurement data are arbitrary, but unit differences between the model dispersion factors (Bq) and the measurements (mBq) need to be applied to the source term vector solution. Blue column headings time in days from the year 1900 Red column gives measurement data vector (mBq/m3) Each row gives TCM values for each release (column) time contributing to that measurement (non-zero=yellow) 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

TCSOLVE solution to the coefficient matrix Dij Si = Rj concentration at receptor R is the linear sum of all the contributing sources S times the dilution factor D between S and R Si = (Dij)-1 Rj the linear relationship between sources and receptors can be expressed by the inverse of the coefficient matrix TCSOLVE -ic2array.csv input CM array (D = Bq/m3) -u0.001 convert R from mBq to Bq -otcsolve.txt source term solution in Bq Normally one would not always expect a solution due to model and measurement errors or matrix singularities, measurement data that have no contributions from any emission period. In addition, the matrix may be ill-defined, either too many equations or too few equations (measurement data). It may be necessary to manually edit the CM prior to attempting a solution. If the matrix is square, it can be solved in EXCEL using the inverse and multiplication functions. Alternate Approach: Edit the CM file into a square matrix Use EXCEL functions MINVERSE() and MMULT() 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

TCSOLVE.TXT Date, Result, , E+13, , E+13, , E+13, , E+13, , E+13, , E+14, , E+13, , E+14, , E+14, , E+16, , E+14, , E+00, , E+00, , E+00, , E+00, , E+00, , E+00, The source term vector, corresponding to each column of the CSV file is written to the output file TCSOLVE.TXT. The source term solution vector is shown in red while the actual source term used in the previous calculations is shown in green. The negative values show solutions are not possible for those time periods. Those times also roughly correspond with the plume moving away from the monitoring location resulting in greater uncertainty in the model predictions as well as whether those measurements are directly from the source or the result of previous emissions not modeled. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

HYSPLIT Transfer Coefficient Matrix Summary
Emissions must be decay corrected to the same time One simulation per emission time period Time-varying emissions are applied during post-processing Decay is applied during the post-processing phase For both air concentration and deposition Post-processing permits a single computational species to represent multiple radionuclides Depositing particles Depositing gases Noble gases without deposition Gravitational settling Note that a simulation could consist of multiple computational species, such as noble gases, water soluble particles, and particles of different sizes. Each radionuclide could be applied to the computational particle most representative of its characteristics. In the example simulation shown here all species were contained on a single computational particle. This assumption is valid as long as all species have the same atmospheric transport pathway. For instance, species with large settling velocities should not be on the same computational particle as gaseous species. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Dose Calculations Combining Multiple Radionuclides
Simple approach: single time period constant unit dispersion and multiple species emissions combined to compute total dose Computational footnote: a nuclear detonation Complex approach: multiple time period constant unit dispersion files and time-varying multiple species emissions combined to compute total dose All the following examples show dose rate but a simple command line flag converts output to accumulated dose The remaining examples show how dose can be computed using emissions from multiple radionuclides and just a few transport and dispersion simulations. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Dose Calculations using Constant Unit Emission 2 RNUC 1.0 51.0 NGAS 1 ./ fdnpp_unit.bin 0 100 E E-05 0.0 Mass Nucl T1/2 Emission Cloudshine Groundshine Inhalation Hr= sec Bq rem/h Bq/m3 rem/h Bq/m2 rem/Bq 95 Nb E E E E E-06 110 Ag E E E E E-06 132 Te E E E E E-07 131 I E E E E E-07 133 I E E E E E-07 133 Xe E E E E E+00 134 Cs E E E E E-07 137 Cs E E E E E-07 140 Ba E E E E E-07 140 La E E E E E-07 activity.txt file CONTROL file HYSPLIT CON2REM: unit dispersion to dose -ifdnpp_unit.bin -ofdnpp_dose.bin For dose rate calculations, CON2DOSE has been replaced by the more general program CON2REM, which reads a unit source HYSPLIT concentration output file and a file called ACTIVITY.TXT that defines each radionuclide to be included in the dose calculation. In its current configuration, CON2REM supports two computational species; a generic particulate radionuclide “RNUC” and a non-depositing noble gas “NGAS”. A total dose is computed for both species which consists of the sum of the product of the emissions, dose conversion factors, and dispersion/deposition coefficients. Nobel gases are identified by the zero value for the ground-shine dose conversion factor in the ACTIVITY.TXT table and these are all associated with the NGAS dispersion coefficients. All other radionuclides listed in the table are linked with the RNUC dispersion-deposition coefficients. In this example the ACTIVITY.TXT file lists the top-ten radionuclides (also depends upon the time after fission termination) and the maximum emission rate (Bq/h) for each of these during the Fukushima accident. The maximum rates may not have occurred at the same time! In the last step, the program CONCSUM is used to add together the doses from RNUC and NGAS from both the air and ground contributions. NGAS= 133Xe + 85Kr + … RNUC= 95Nb + 110Ag + … CONCSUM: ground and cloud-shine -ifdnpp_dose.bin -ofdnpp_sums.bin -L -pDOSE 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Dose Rates at Tokai-Mura using the maximum rate for each of 10 radionculides Cloud Ground mBq/m3 mBq/m3 R/h The time series of dose rates are shown in red while the air concentration time series at Tokai-mura is shown in black as a reference. Note the air doses track the air concentration while the ground-shine dose slowly increases with time. R/h 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Dose Rates at Tokai-Mura using the maximum rate for each of 10 radionculides mBq/m3 Total R/h using conavgpd The final total dose represents a sum of both air and ground contributions (previous slide). The dose rates shown on the map were time averaged over the two day period. CON2REM can output the dose rate (-d0) or the total dose (-d1) which includes decay over each sampling period. Decay can be computed to the end of each sampling period (-g0) or time-averaged over each sampling period (-g1). Decay is applied to both air concentration and deposition from the start time of the simulation. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

ACTIVITY.TXT file at the initial time of fission Mass Nucl T1/ U235H U235T Pu239H Pu239T Cloudshine Groundshine Hr= sec Bq Bq Bq Bq rem/h Bq/m3 rem/h Bq/m2 66 Ni E E E E E E E-14 66 Cu E E E E E E E-11 67 Cu E E E E E E E-11 67 Ga E E E E E E E-11 68 Ga E E E E E E E-10 69 Zn-m E E E E E E E-10 69 Zn E E E E E E E-12 69 Ge E E E E E E E-10 70 Ga E E E E E E E-11 71 Zn-m E E E E E E E-10 72 Zn E E E E E E E-11 72 Ga E E E E E E E-10 72 As E E E E E E E-10 73 Ga E E E E E E E-10 73 As E E E E E E E-12 74 As E E E E E E E-10 75 Ge E E E E E E E-11 75 Se E E E E E E E-10 76 As E E E E E E E-10 167 Ho E E E E E E E-10 167 Tm E E E E E E E-11 169 Er E E E E E E E-14 169 Yb E E E E E E E-10 170 Tm E E E E E E E-12 171 Er E E E E E E E-10 171 Tm E E E E E E E-13 172 Er E E E E E E E-10 172 Tm E E E E E E E-10 172 Lu E E E E E E E-10 Normally an ACTIVITY.TXT file would be manually edited to create the desired emissions profile. However, there is a supplemental program that we use to create this file for any time after fission based upon published data of fission products for 239Pu and 235U. There would be over 200 radionuclides in the complete table, a sample (beginning and end) of which is shown in this slide. The program to create this file is not part of the HYSPLIT distribution. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

6 06 1 C:/hysplit4/working/ hysplit.t06z.namf 3 P005 0.0 0.1 P010 P015 ./ cdump 2 0 100 CONTROL and EMISSIONS for a nuclear detonation CONTROL YYYY MM DD HH DURATION(hhhh) #RECORDS YYYY MM DD HH MM DURATION(hhmm) LAT LON HGT(m) RATE(/h) AREA(m2) HEAT(w) EMITIMES 3 0.0 Although the calculation will not be demonstrated, the ACTIVITY.TXT file with the complete fission inventory can be used to compute the doses from a nuclear detonation. In this situation, the emissions in the CONTROL file are defined at six (red) levels, each level contains three (blue) different particle sizes with a defined settling velocity. The emissions duration for each particle size is one tenth of an hour (green) and therefore the emission rates (1/h – last non-zero column) in the EMITIMES file must add to ten resulting in a total emission of one unit. During CON2REM processing the resulting unit-source concentrations are multiplied by the activity (Bq) in each species to obtain the total concentration in each particle size range. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Fission and Dose References for CON2REM The radionculide yield per 100 fissions was taken from: T.R. England and B.F. Rider, Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-UR ; ENDF-349 (1993) digitally tabulated and available from Not part of the HYSPLIT distribution, but an activity.txt file can be created for any time after the time of fission using England and Rider Radionuclide inventories were computed using the rate of 1.45E+23 fissions per kT for nuclear detonations. For thermal reactions we assume 3000 MW-hours equals 2.58 kT The external dose rate for cloud- and ground-shine is computed from the factors given by Eckerman K.F. and Leggett R.W. (1996) DCFPAK: Dose coefficient data file package for Sandia National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Report ORNL/TM-13347 C:\Hysplit4\exec>con2rem USAGE: con2rem -[options(default)] -a[activity input file name (activity.txt) or {create|fdnpp}] -b[Breathing rate for inhalation dose in m3/hr (0.925)] -c[Output type: (0)-dose, 1-air conc/dep] -d[Type of dose: (0)=rate (R/hr) 1=dose over averging period (R)] -e[include inhalation dose (0)=No 1=Yes] -f[fuel (1)=U235 2=P239] -g[normal decay=0 (used only with c=1), time averaged decay (1)] -h[help with extended comments] -i[input file name (cdump)] -n[noble gas 4-char ID (NGAS)] -o[output file name (rdump)] -p[process (1)=device 2=reactor] -q[convert dose from rem=0 to sieverts=(1)] -s[sum species (0), 1=match to input, 2=output species] -t[no decay=0 input already decayed, or decay by half-life (1)] -u[units conversion Bq->pCi, missing: assume input Bq] -w[fission activity in thermal mega-watt-hours, replaces -y option] -x[extended integration time in hours beyond calculation (0)] -y[yield (1.0)=kT] -z[fixed integration time in hours (0)] 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Dose from Time-Varying Unit Emission Files TG_mmddhh  CG_mmddhh  DG_mmddhh  SG_mmddhh  dose.bin + cfactors.txt + activity.txt + mergelist.txt CONDECAY CON2REM CONCSUM CONMERGE creates an concentration array element for each species on command line Converts concentration to dose for each species assuming no decay and a unit emission Adds dose for air and ground and species to obtain total dose for each release time In the previous example, a time-invariant unit source calculation was used to demonstrate the dose calculation using CON2REM. In this case, we use the previously generated unit source TG files for each emission period. CONDECAY is applied with multiple species defined on the command line and a time-varying emissions file to create concentration files with multiple species for each emission time period. CON2REM is then applied to each of these files to create doses for each radionuclide using the option to match each entry in the ACTIVITY.TXT file with a radionuclide in the concentration file. An emission rate of one must be defined for this step. Finally the doses are added by CONCSUM and a single output file is created by CONMERGE. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

CONDECAY processing cfactors.txt CONDECAY -1:1: :C137 -3:1: :I131 -4:1: :C134 -5:1: :I133 -6:1: :B140 -7:1: :L140 -8:1: :T132 -9:1: :A110 -10:1:3.0200:NB95 -14:1:5.2474:X133 +ecfactors +oCG_ +t031106 YYYY MM DD HH Cs-137 I-131g I-131p Cs-134 I-133 Ba-140 La-140 Te-132 Ag-110m Nb-95 Mo-99 Tc-99m Sn-113 Xe-133 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+15 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+16 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+16 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+17 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+17 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+17 E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+17 In this application CONDECAY has 10 radionuclide species defined on the command line which means that each TG dispersion coefficient will generate 10 species in the CG output file using the emission rates defined in CFACTORS.TXT. In this example, the emission rates are the ones used by UNSCEAR for their assessment of the Fukushima accident. The 4-character species labels are critical because in the CON2REM step they will be matched to the dose conversion factors with the same 4-character ID. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

CON2REM and CONCSUM processing for %%H in ( ) do ( CON2REM -iCG_03%%H -oDG_03%%H -s1 match to input -t0 no decay CONCSUM -iDG_03%%H -oSG_03%%H -l -pDOSE label output ) CONMERGE -imergelist.txt -ofdnpp.bin Mass Nucl T1/2 Emissions Cloudshine Groundshine Inhalation Hr= sec Bq rem/h Bq/m3 rem/h Bq/m2 rem/Bq 0001 NB E E E E E-06 0002 A E E E E E-06 0003 T E E E E E-07 0004 I E E E E E-07 0005 I E E E E E-07 0006 X E E E E E+00 0007 C E E E E E-07 0008 C E E E E E-07 0009 B E E E E E-07 0010 L E E E E E-07 activity.txt: note that all emissions = 1.0 The 4-character radionuclide label in the activity.txt file must match the input species ID in the CG_* input file created by the command line options of condecay. The next step involves processing each concentration file (CG) and matching it to the same radionuclide ID (-s1 option) in the ACTIVITY.TXT file. Decay is not applied in this step because it was already applied in the CONDECAY processing step. Also note that the emissions in the ACTIVITY.TXT file were manually edited to be set to one. Also in this slide as well as one of the previous ones (slide 37), the ACTIVITY.TXT file shows only one column for emissions (to fit within the display window). A correctly formatted file would show four emission columns as is shown in slide 40. The –f and –p command line options of CON2REM are used to select which emission column to use in processing the data file. The dose output file (DG) is then summed by CONCSUM to obtain the total dose for each release period. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Final Dose using Time-Varying TCM Approach
mBq/m3 Using a realistic emissions time profile, dose rates are about a factor of ten less than when using a constant maximum emission rate. R/h 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Summary Current distribution: condecay, con2rem, conavgpd, concsum, conmerge, c2array, tcsolve Source code only: con2dose October 2014 distribution: tcmsum Revised wet deposition (Fukushima optimized) Other relevant applications not discussed Time-of-arrival products (isochron) Peak values (conmaxv) Use the web interface to configure local version The TCM approach avoids the requirement for a new simulation for each source term variation The configuration of various input files for HYSPLIT and post-processing programs was reviewed to demonstrate how the modeling system can be applied for radionuclide and dose simulations. Most of these applications are available with the current HYSPLIT version, except for the single-file TCM processing option, which has been released in October The October release also contains a significant modification to the wet deposition algorithm to provide more consistent results for the Fukushima accident when conducting simulations using different meteorological data sources. Many other HYSPLIT features, although developed for other purposes could be used for radiological applications such as creating maps of plume arrival times as well as maps of maximum concentration (or dose). One significant improvement with the upcoming distribution is to automatically create a simulation that consists of independent pollutant release times. This file can be post-processed with the actual emissions data to obtain a time series of air concentrations. Multiple emission scenarios can be evaluated without rerunning HYSPLIT. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

137Cs Deposition Example Standard and Fine Resolution The fine grid will always show higher values near the source! 0.05 degree grid 0.005 degree grid All the previous examples used a 0.05 degree resolution (~5 km) concentration/deposition grid. However, HYSPLIT can be run at much finer resolution and the graphic to the right shows the same calculation (constant emission rate) but with a grid resolution of degrees (~500 m). The resolution of the meteorological data driving the dispersion calculations was 4 km and 20 minutes. Fine resolution dispersion calculations can be made using coarser resolution meteorological data. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

Through the WEB: Various radionuclide simulations can also be run over the web through the ready site ( Certain user restrictions apply for web-based radionuclide simulations. In addition, all web simulation have some restrictions regarding run duration, number of species, grid resolution, and various other options to limit impact on the server. However, the web can also be used in conjunction with the PC or LINUX versions, in terms of providing guidance in configuring a simulation. At the completion of a web simulation, all the HYSPLIT input files (CONTROL, SETUP.CFG, EMITIMES) are available for download. Note not all users have access to same options. 4/24/2017 Air Resources Laboratory

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HYSPLIT Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model Radionuclide Applications Roland Draxler NOAA Air Resources Laboratory This presentation.

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