1. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Mauro del Longo, Andrea Montani, Tiziana Paccagnella, Silvano Pecora and Giuseppe Ricciardi ARPA Emilia Romagna - Italy Use of the COSMO-LEPS ensemble for hydrologic forecasts in the Warning Operational Center of Emilia Romagna (Italy) www.arpa.emr.it

2. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) A combination of probabilistic meteorological inputs and scheduling of hydrologic/hydraulic models within the system give us a lot of information needing a more complex OPERATIONAL interpretation. It can be useful to fulfill the recent ITALIAN CIVIL PROTECTION law linking forecast activity and probable risk scenarios. A conservative approach can consist in choosing the heaviest rain, the highest peak or the earliest one, or the maximum discharge volumes forecast; however, i.e. due, in some cases, to underdispersivity of probabilistic meteorological forcasts, it can not eliminate all missed alarms while it can generate too many false alarms. An alternative approach can consist in combining all informations in real time, to discern among different forecast scenarios and to give each scenario a “Subjective weight” (subjective forecast), expecially by mean of COSMO LEPS. Aim of this work

3. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Introduction Meteorological products (Cosmo suites - Leps, I7, I2 N2-RUC) Hydrological and hydraulic products (Mike-NAM/HD, HEC-HMS/RAS, Topkapi/Sobek) Scheduling and operational use Operational System Activities Methodology Case studies Conclusions Spatial Resolution Temporal Resolution Runs per day Lead time Cosmo - LEPS/LM- DET 7 km3 h2120 h CosmoI77 km1 h272 h CosmoI22.8 km1 h248 h RUC2.8 km1 h818 h Hydrological modelHydraulic model Mike11 HD- NAM Lumped model Average basin area about 100km 2 11.000 sections 100- 500 m 1D, “Quasi” 2D HEC HMS-RAS Lumped model Average basin area about 100km 2 11.000 sections 100- 500 m 1D, “Quasi” 2D Topkapi-Sobek Distributed model Grid size 250m or 500m 11.000 sections 100- 500 m 1D, “Quasi” 2D Mike11 NAM- HD HEC HMS- RAS Topkapi-Sobek Cosmo - LEPS/LM-DET Every 6 hours 17 ensemble members runs in parallel Every 12 hours 17 ensemble members runs in parallel Every 12 hours 17 ensemble members runs in parallel CosmoI7Every 3 hours CosmoI2Every hour Not yet implemented RUCEvery hour Not yet implemented

4. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) COSMO-LEPS (run at ECMWF) COSMO Consortium d-1 dd+5 d+1d+2 d+4d+3 older EPS younger EPS clustering period 00 12 Cluster Analysis and RM identification 4 variables Z U V Q 3 levels 500 700 850 hPa 2 time steps Cluster Analysis and RM identification European area Complete Linkage 16 Representative Members driving the 16 COSMO-model integrations (weighted according to the cluster populations) Using either Tiedtke or Kain- Fristch convection scheme (members 1-8 T, members 9- 16 KF) + Perturbations in turbulence scheme and in physical parameterisations COSMO- LEPS clustering area suite runs twice a day (00 and 12UTC) as a “time-critical application” managed by ARPA- SIMC on behalf of COSMO consortium; Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; fc+132h; COSM0 v4.26 since January 2013; computer time (30 million BUs for 2013) provided by the ECMWF member states in COSMO. COSMO- LEPS Integration Domain Montani Andrea NWP4 Room 102 Friday, 13 Sep

5. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Time (hours) 6121824303642485460667278849096102108114120 Meteorological modelling LEPS/LM Det COSMO I7 COSMO I2 RUC Hydrological/hydraulic modelling Mike NAM-HD11 Hec HMS-RAS Topkapi - Sobek Elements of modeling system FEWS Observation network Modeling tools and suites Discharge field measurements Monitoring network : water level gauges (blue triangle) raingauges (green dots) thermometers (green dots) dams (violet)

6. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) From: time of forecast comparison among models consistency scales season meteorological phenomena We define the variability and reliability of inputs to hydrological-hydraulic chains The reliability judgment on models and the use of ensembles give informations about the uncertainty Meteorological Hydrological From: reliability of hydrological-hydraulic chains comparison among outputs catchment, river network and hydraulic devices conditions hydrological phenomena post correction, manual forecast judgment on outputs warning level Probabilistic Bulletin Activities We define the variability and reliability of hydrologic flood forecast

7. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) We present the activity of the Flood Warning Center of Emilia Romagna on some events occurred in the last year and we propose a methodology for a deeper analysis. Methodology Members exceeding thresholds Time at threshold exceeding / Peak timeThreshold exceeding duration All members median of maximum levels Maximum level range Present activity We look at 5-day forecast to identify: the probability of exceedance of a hydrometric threshold the number of members exceeding the threshold the forecast consistency in the prediction at the ranges +5, +4, …. +1day

8. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Date 10-11/11/2012 624 and 694 km 2 Lead time 120 h Date 10-11/03/2013 Catchment: 694 km 2 Lead time 120 h Date 14-20/05/2013 Catchment: 41.000 km 2 Lead time 144 h LARGE Lead time: 48 - 120 h Spatial scale: 30.000 - 5.000 km 2 REGIONAL Lead time: 24 - 48 h Spatial scale: 5.000 -1.000 km 2 MULTICATCHMENT Lead time: 12 - 24 h Spatial scale: 1.000 - 500 km 2 SINGLE CATCHMENT Lead time: 6 - 12 h Spatial scale: 500 - 200 km 2 Case studies CASE3 CASE2 CASE1

9. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Case 1: Po at Piacenza Case 2/3: Parma at Ponte Verdi and Secchia at Lugo GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATIONS OF CASE STUDIES

10. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Total precipitation 15 may 00:00 - 20 may 00.00: 135 mm Partial precipitation 15 may 00:00 17 may 12.00 80 mm 18 may 12:00 19 may 12:00 45 mm Forecast Discharge 5.500- 6.000 m3/s Peak time 18th may from 00:00 to 12:00 Observed Discharge 5.300 m3/s Peak time 18th may at 10.00 Case 1: Po at Piacenza Meteosat image on European-Atlantic area on 17 th May 2013 at 08:00 LTC

11. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Case 1: Po at Piacenza Consistency of the ensemble forecast (red dashed spaghetti plot) from 13 th to 16 th May show: -the consolidation of the meteorological dynamic system -the rotation and reduction of thickness of the band of threshold exceedings (see left diagrams) Observed flood (continuous blue line) peak on 18 th May h max = 5.96 m Second observed peak on 21 st May h max = 6.50 m 2013 05 15 Piacenza Maximum level frequency analysis 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.95 0,02,04,06,08,010,0 h [m] 1- P

12. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Case 2: Parma at Ponte Verdi and Secchia at Lugo Total site precipitation from 10th to 11th Nov 2012 Parma basin: Bosco di Corniglio station 180 mm Secchia basin: Ospitaletto station 183 mm Reflectivity maps from operational ARPA-SIMC radars on 11 th Nov 2012 05.30 UTC (up) 06.00 UTC (down)

13. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Case 2: Parma at Ponte Verdi and Secchia at Lugo Deterministic forecast driven by Cosmo I7 From 8 th to 10 th Nov: the variability of the signal decreases the peak values first increase and than decrease peak timing is consistent Observed flood peak on 11 th Nov 11:00 LTC Parma h max = 3.18 m Q max = 500 mc/s Lugo h max = 2.40 m Q max = 535 mc/s

14. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) From 8 th to 10 th Nov shift and slight reduction of thickness of the band. The number of threshold exceedings after a first increase falls down Case 2: Parma at Ponte Verdi and Secchia at Lugo - FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 10 th Nov: Ponte Verdi 0 members exceed L3 10 th Nov: Lugo 1 members exceed L2 Deterministic and probabilistic meteorological analisys are not sufficient. What if we add a probabilistic hydrological analisys?

15. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) 10 th Nov: Ponte Verdi 9 members exceed L3 Cosmo I7 (green line) driven run still underestimates Parma at Ponte Verdi and Secchia at Lugo - SOBEK ANALYSIS at + 48 hours 10 th Nov: Lugo 7 members exceed L2

16. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) Forecast consistency between +72 and +96 hours 11 th March 12 th March 13 th March Case 3: Parma at Ponte Verdi – FALSE ALARM 13 th March abrupt dump of the signal without threshold exceedings 11 th March forecast gives threshold exceedings between 14 th and 15 th March 12 th March forecast consistency with fair fading

17. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) CASE1 Deterministic Ensemble m1,m2…. Observed CASE2: Deterministic Ensemble m1,m2…. Observed CASE3 Deterministic Ensemble m1,m2…. Observed Conclusions 1_Joint use of deterministic and ensemble forecast helps to reduce MISSED ALARM compared to the deterministic only case (e.g. Case 2). 2_Ensemble predictions providing thresholds exceeding several days in advance, even for small basins (e.g. Case 2 and 3), gives forecasters MORE TIME TO UNDERTAKE ANALYSIS, useful for false alarm case (e.g. Case 3). 3_Coupling the meteorological ensemble with a hydrological/hydraulic multi model gives forecasters more information too. Only the PROFESSIONAL SKILL can give a “subjective weight” to the forecast. 4_It is therefore necessary to know the limits of forecasting systems. Verification through statistical analysis and comparisons between forecast from skilled operator and observations are essential to test and improve the quality of forecasts, allowing a “ DIAGNOSTIC ” on hydrometeorological models and a self assessment on forecast products.

18. 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) | 09 – 13 Sep.2013 | Reading, United Kingdom ASI – AS19 Interfacing hydrological and meteorological models in forecasting systems (Monday, 9 September 2013) To test and improve forecast quality we are going to extend the presented work: building the forcasted hydrogram setting a set of constraints and separately analizing each variable (e.g. peak time, peak discharge …) using other events implementing statistical analysis analyzing QPF, discharges, time at threshold exceeding and duration comparing subjective forecasts and observations considering performance indicators Future step Thank you for attention 100 th Anniversary of Italian Hydrographic Istitute www.arpa.emr.it