1. 6.1.1 - Climate Change Impacts on the Energy Sector Project has combined two projects : 1) Critical Aspects of Changes in Sea Ice Cover on Oil and Gas Development and Transportation 2) Impacts of Evolving Sea ice Conditions on Energy Production This work concentrates mainly on the Canadian Arctic (mainly the Arctic Islands)

2. 6.1.1 - Climate Change Impacts on the Energy Sector Project Objectives: 1. Critical assessment and interpretation of recent sea ice trends in the Canadian Arctic 2. Best estimate of future sea ice trends under global warming (latest ice trends + regional climate models) 3. Guidance to the oil and gas industry on expected future ice trends and possible impacts (25 years)

3. Outline: Regional differences in sea ice trends on the Eurasian and Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean from satellite passive microwave How the additional information that we get from CIS digital ice charts can help understand what is happening in the Arctic Islands What the implications this might have on Arctic marine transportation in the next 25 years or so

4. Strong Regional Differences - -2002 summer in the Canadian Arctic was above - long term trends on Eurasian side versus the Canadian side are different -Consistent with trend to positive NAO Satellite Passive Microwave -Decrease of 3% per decade -Probability that this has occurred by chance is 1/1000 - Decrease of 7% per decade in summer - 2002 summer lowest ever recorded

6. September Median Sea Ice Cover (1961-90)

7. Mean Sea Ice Motion

8. CIS Ice Charts Sverdrup Channel Nansen Sound Satellite Passive Microwave

9. East Arctic Chart Ice Covered Area by Ice Type (in million sq. km) 98 9995 96 97 2000

10. Differences in Summer Sea Ice Cover Trends

11. SUMMARY Although summer ice cover is decreasing on the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean and over the hemisphere, no change has occurred in the Canadian High Arctic Islands. This is attributed in part to large scale sea ice dynamics The influx of pack ice played an important role in the recovery from record low ice in the QEI in 1998 suggesting that fast recovery from light ice years in the QEI is due in part to the removal of landfast ice and ice plugs in the most northern channels allowing pack ice from the Arctic Ocean to enter in greater amounts. In a sense the High Arctic Islands act like a gigantic trap collecting pack ice from the Arctic Ocean.

12. SUMMARY This suggests that the Arctic Islands will be one of the last regions of the northern hemisphere to loose its ice cover under a warmer climate provided ice dynamics remains the same Greater sea ice variability and intrusions of pack ice from the Arctic Ocean under a warmer climate especially if these ice plugs are no longer present Requires a regional climate model of the Arctic Islands which can resolve the main waterways and include detailed sea ice dynamics To better assess impacts on marine navigability, implement a marine navigability model using least cost analysis

13. Recent Publications: T. A. Agnew and S. Howell, 2002. Comparison of Digitized Canadian Ice Charts and Passive Microwave Sea-ice Concentrations, Proc. of the International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS'02), July 24-28,2002, Toronto, Canada. T. A. Agnew and S. Howell, 2002. Climatic analysis of operational digitized ice charts and comparison with passive microwave ice concentrations data., submitted to J. of Geophy Res.- Oceans Jeffers, S., T. A. Agnew, B. Taylor Alt, R. De Abreu, and S. McCourt, 2001. Investigating the Anomalous Sea Ice Conditions in the Canadian High Arctic (Queen Elizabeth Islands) During the Summer of 1998. Annals of Glaciology, vol. 33, 507-512, IGS Symposium on Sea Ice and Its Interactions with the Ocean, Atmosphere and Biosphere, June 19-23, 2000, Fairbanks, Alaska. James A. Maslanik, Mark C. Serreze, and Thomas Agnew, 1999. On the Record Reduction in Western Arctic Sea-Ice Cover in 1998: Characteristics and Relationships to Atmospheric Circulation, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 13, 1905-1908. Agnew, T., B. Alt, R. De Abreu, and S. Jeffers, 2001. The Loss of Decades Old Sea Ice Plugs in the Canadian Arctic Islands, Sixth Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 14-18 May 2001, San Diego, CA.