1. VTRA CASE B: DRIFT ROUNDING RESULTS Assessment of Oil Spill Risk due to Vessel Traffic Docking at Cherry Point (BP), Washington GWU Personnel: Dr. Jack R. Harrald, Dr. J. Rene van Dorp, Dr. Greg Shaw, Dr. Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Adil Caner Sener, Christian Salmon RPI Personnel: Dr. Martha Grabowski, Zhi Zhou, Zhuyu You, Michael Steward VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick, Christina Werner July 14, 2008

2. © GWU-RPI-VCU November 20072 When a Tanker or Tug underway or Tug underway and assuming it and assuming it continues drifting, continues drifting, There is the potential of drift potential of drift grounding within 5 hours 5 hours 41% of the time Remaining 37% Only Average Grid Cell Potential Number of Drift Grounding Interactions per Year (BP - Vessels)

3. © GWU-RPI-VCU November 20073 Average Return Time: 85 years 1 Grounding in 11 Years of Data Remaining 8% Only Average Grid Cell Potential Number of Drift Groundings per Year (BP - Vessels) 0.26% of total BP accident rate

4. © GWU-RPI-VCU November 20074 Remaining 43% 5.5 Cubic Meters On Average Per Year due To Drift Grounding Average Yearly BP: Total Oil Outflow Only Average Grid Cell Potential Volume of Total Outflow per Year (BP - Drift Groundings) 1.69% of total BP & IV Oil Outflow

5. © GWU-RPI-VCU November 20075 Remaining 44% Average Yearly BP: Persistent Oil Outflow Only Average Grid Cell Potential Volume of BP Persistent Outflow per Year (BP - Drift Groundings) 5.3 Cubic Meters On Average Per Year due To Drift Grounding 1.66% of total BP & IV Oil Outflow

6. © GWU-RPI-VCU November 20076 Remaining 14% Average Yearly BP: Non- Persistent Oil Outflow Only Average Grid Cell Potential Volume of BP Non-Persistent Outflow per Year (BP - Drift Groundings) 0.2 Cubic Meters On Average Per Year due To Drift Grounding 0.03% of total BP & IV Oil Outflow