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1D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Debriefing FishBanks An example of game debriefing Dennis Meadows Uppsala University; 11/5/2015.

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Presentation on theme: "1D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Debriefing FishBanks An example of game debriefing Dennis Meadows Uppsala University; 11/5/2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 1D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Debriefing FishBanks An example of game debriefing Dennis Meadows Uppsala University; 11/5/2015

2 2D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Reflecting on the Game Video of an actual fishing system (optional) Performance of the teams Alternative strategies Why did that happen? What can be done?

3 3D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Summary of Game Behavior 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FISHCATCHSHIPS

4 4D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Typical Game Behavior Fish Catch Ships 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR

5 5D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Typical Game Behavior - Fleet

6 6D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Typical Game Behavior - Catch

7 7D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Typical Game Behavior - Fish Population

8 8D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Does fish depletion happen in real life? Pacific sardine fishery Peruvian anchovy fishery North Sea Herring Georges Bank Cod fish

9 9D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Pacific Sardine Catch

10 10D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Peruvian Anchovy Catch

11 11D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows North Sea Herring Catch Mark Wise, Common Fisheries Policy of the European Community, New York, Methuen, 1984.

12 12D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Georges Bank Codfish Catch

13 13D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Total World Fish Catch Source: Fisheries of the United States. US Dept. of Commerce.

14 14D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Global Fisheries Depletion Region Northwest Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Southeast Atlantic Northwest Pacific Northeast Pacific Southeast Pacific Total Species Cod Haddock Capelin Herring Pilchard Salmon Halibut Perch King Crab Anchoveta Potential 1,350 100 500 300 2,250 600 350 38 210 40 2-5,000* 10,738 1988 Catch 643 36 110 284 1394 66 258 43 33 10 2,877 5754 Loss 707 64 390 16 856 534 92 -5 177 30 2,123 4,984 Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, "Review of World Fishery Resources," Rome 1990. *Potential use to be 9,-11,000,000 tons before the collapse in the 1960s. The new potential is more likely 2- 5,000,000 tons, but the stock is highly variable. Thousands of Tons

15 15D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows New England Fisheries - Hard Times I remember catching 5,000 pounds of fish in eight nets. Today, it might take up to 80 nets. Back then, the average codfish in the spring would probably be 25 to 40 pounds. Now, it's 5 to 8 pounds." - Peter Morse "Go down to the docks and talk to the guys down there," said John Nelson, chief of the Marine Fisheries Division of the state Fish and Game Department. "Most of them have their boats for sale. If they could sell their boats and do something else, they would. Source: Clare Kittredge, "N.H. Fish Story Is Not a Happy One," Boston Globe. February 4, 1990.  

16 16D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Present Value of the Fishery The maximization of the present value of the fishery by employing an optimum dynamic strategy need not but can imply extinctions of the fishery. Does this mean that economists would recommend the extinction of fish species under appropriate market conditions? Social decisions take place in a multiple-objective or multiple-criterion framework of which economic net benefits are but one criterion. The responsible economist would generate information on the present values of the fishery under different schemes of management. If the highest present value of net benefits appears to be generated by a pattern of fishing that eventually would exterminate the fish stock, this would be stated, along with the information on other schemes that would preserve a viable fish stock. The decision makers then would understand the tradeoffs involved and could proceed with their decision. Source: Charles W. Howe, "The Management of Fisheries," in Natural Resource Economics, John Wiley & Sons, 1979.

17 17D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Dietary Importance of Fish Population At present, fish comprise 34 percent of the animal- protein for the world's population; in developing nations, more than 40 percent. Source: "Assaulting the Seas: Rising Human Tide Overwhelms Oceans," The ZPG Reporter, July 1991. 

18 18D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Other Importance of Fish Population provides export earnings for poor nations important source of jobs and income foundation for the culture of many regions and towns supports a diverse ecosystem

19 19D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Alternative Strategies 1 2 3 Maximum Sustainable Catch TIME CATCH - - - -

20 20D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows What Happened? What caused the overshoot and collapse? Who was responsible?

21 21D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Causes of Overshoot poor understanding of the level and the causes of the limit science is inadequate, market prices confuse the issue, those with a short-term vested interest misrepresent the situation momentum in the system long delays in deciding, responding, affecting

22 22D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Causes of Collapse Collapse happens when the process of overshooting lowers the limit, and it takes a long time for the system to recover.

23 23D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Examples of Collapse drinking too much alcohol cutting too many trees abusing trust and good will - phone marketing relying on debt building too many offices or residences misleading accounting ozone layer, ground water, agricultural soils

24 24D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Avoiding Collapse understand the limit reduce the momentum or look ahead speed up response avoid the destruction of the system in ways that lower the limit. what is the role of technology?

25 25D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness - - - - -

26 26D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows The Fisheries System: Fish

27 27D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows The Fisheries System: Catch

28 28D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows The Fisheries System: Investment +,-

29 29D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows The Fisheries System Structure +,-

30 30D Fish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows What can be done? Partition the seas Establish quotas Farm fish Move down food chain Change consumption preferences Reduce destruction and pollution of fisheries Limit ship fleets, technology Develop better methods to assess stock Change social values and economic incentives

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