1. HR Planning MANA 4328 Dr. Jeanne Michalski michalski@uta.edu

2. How many people do we need?  Product Demand X Labor Productivity  Turnover Where are they coming from?  Internal Labor Market  Existing employees  External Labor Market  Potential employees HR Planning

3. Considerations in HR Planning  Demographic trends  Strategies that affect staffing  Product demand  Diversity goals  Legal mandates (e.g. licenses and regulations)  Special programs (e.g. quality improvement initiatives)  Cyclical workload factors  Changes in technology or work process  Budget constraints  Growth of team-based organizations  Geographic differences

4. HR Forecasts  Labor demand  Strategic Planning  Succession Planning  Managing Retention  Labor supply  Labor markets  Specific shortages Labor SupplyLabor Demand

5. Forecasting Labor Requirements  Total labor requirements  Productivity and FTE employees  Scheduling and shifts  High volume / traffic times  Internal Labor Market An internal survey of Houston Police Department officers eligible for retirement in 2004 found that 534 plan to leave that year - a 300% increase over recent years that translates into 1 in 10 officers.  External Labor Market  CVS disclosed in its annual report that it was forced to cut pharmacy hours in 2003 due to lack to qualified pharmacists.

6. Some Skilled Workers Hard to Find Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said on Monday that U.S. employers were witnessing a clear shortage of certain types of workers. “They like to say if you can walk and chew gum in the oil services sector and in the chemical engineering sector, you can get a job. We need to teach a lot of people how to walk and chew gum," he said. "In Texas City, for example, they were offering a welder in the oil patch $19 an hour at the beginning of the year. They're now offering $25 a hour, with a hundred dollar show up bonus, just to show up for work, and a completion bonus for your work," he said. Fisher specifically mentioned welders, plumbers, truck drivers, and workers in the hospitality industry as jobs which are going begging nationwide. 11.13.06 Reuters

7. Forecasting Labor Requirements Railroads are preparing for a major shortage of engineers and are trying to hire more of them to meet the demands of the next decade. The railroad industry engineers average age 46, average years of service 28. Railroad retirement provides full benefits at age 60 with 30 years of service. (2004) How do they predict engineer demand in 2012? How do they know engineers will be in short supply? What is driving the shortage of engineers? Can anything be done today?

8. Forecasting Labor Requirements How many engineers do we need? Revenue growth of 20% per year translates into 8% more train starts. What determines supply of engineers?  Training pipeline for engineers (conductor positions)  Retirements have grown to 6 % per year and age demographics indicate that a larger percentage becomes eligible for retirement every year. What is driving the shortage of engineers?  Retirements  Lack of hiring during the 80’s due to little or flat year over year revenue growth.

9. Number of Train Service Employees by Age

10. Forecasting Labor Requirements Airlines are preparing for a major shortage of pilots and are trying to hire more of them to meet the demands of the next decade. The airline industry is looking to hire 65,000 pilots by 2012 — including 12,000 this year. Washington Times 8.20.07 How do they predict pilot demand in 2012? How do they know pilots will be in short supply? What is driving the shortage of pilots? Can anything be done today?

11. Forecasting Labor Requirements How many pilots to we need? Commercial air travel has grown 8 percent in the past five years, from 683 million passengers per year in 2001 to 740 million in 2006, and the FAA expects that number to jump to 1.2 billion passengers by 2020. What determines supply of pilots?  Training pipeline for new pilots  Retirements (mandatory retirement at age 60)  After 9/11, many of the 10,000 pilots who were furloughed opted to take early-retirement packages, change professions or sought jobs with international carriers. What is driving the shortage of pilots?  Competition from overseas carriers  Competition from U.S. carriers  U.S. military needs

12. Forecasting Techniques  Budgeting  Statistical Techniques  Trend analysis  Regression  Probability models  Qualitative Techniques  Ask the experts / Delphi Technique  Needs are then compared to current workforce to identify gaps and decide staffing actions.

13. Trend Analysis of HR Demand 2003$2,35114.33164 2004$2,61311.12235 2005$2,9358.34352 2006$3,30610.02330 2007$3,61311.12325 2008$3,74811.12337 2009$3,88012.52310 2010*$4,09512.52327 2011*$4,28312.52342 2012*$4,44612.52355 BUSINESS  LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCES FACTORPRODUCTIVITYDEMAND YEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS)(SALES/EMPLOYEE)(NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES) *Projected figures

14. Forecasting Supply of Employees  Staffing Tables  Markov Analysis  Skill Inventories  Replacement Charts  Succession Planning

15. Forecasting Internal Labor Supply  Staffing Tables  Graphic representations of the number of employees currently occupying certain jobs and future (monthly or yearly) employment requirements.  Markov Analysis  A method for tracking the pattern of employee promotions up through and organization.

16. Markov Analysis for a Retail Company

17. Internal Demand Forecasting Tools  Skill Inventories  Databases of employee KSA’s, education, and used to match job openings with employee backgrounds.  Replacement Charts  Listings of current jobholders and persons who are potential replacements if an opening occurs.  Succession Planning  The process of identifying, developing, and tracking key individuals for executive positions.

18. Replacement Charts

19. Forecasting Databases PeopleSoft, SAP and Many Others “Army Leads the Way in Forecasting Its Hiring Needs” Washington Post April 29, 2001  (WASS) Workforce Analysis &Support System  WASS holds 25 years' worth of data on Army civil service jobs and can be used to analyze long-term workforce trends.  (CIVFORS) Civilian Forecasting System  Computerized Forecasting System  Army hires 25,000 people annually by 2007

20. CIVFORS Projections Based On:  Life-cycle modeling of the civilian workforce based on: Promotions Reassignments Retirements Separations  Time series forecasting techniques used to compute probabilities of events such as retirement and turnover.  Historical data and personnel characteristics are used as predictors of future behavior.

21. Strength FY89 Median Age 42 FY89 Median Age 42 Age U.S. Citizen, Direct Hire, Appropriated Fund, Military & Civil Functions Shifting Age Distributions in the Civilian Workforce Since 1989 Significant decrease in age groups less than 44 Build-up of retirement eligibles FY01 Median Age 48 FY01 Median Age 48

22. Staffing Actions  Recruiting new employees  Developing existing employees  Retaining key employees  Restructuring or redeployment  Outsourcing functions  Using contingent employees  Reassigning shifts

23. Forecasting for Shift Coverage  Employees are needed to be present at all times.  Examples: Retail stores, call centers, nurses etc.  Need to account for productivity, peak demand, and time off to determine how many people to hire.  “Vacancy Factor”

24. 911 Call Center Staffing  Call center handles a peak of 720 calls per hour.  Average call lasts 1 minute. How many dispatchers do I need to answer 720 number of phone calls per hour?  Must be fully staffed 24 hours a day taking into account variations in activity by hour and day. How many employees do I need to staff a certain number dispatchers per shift?  Take into account the usual absence rate, including sick leave, vacation and other leave.

25. 911 Call Center Staffing How many dispatchers do I need per shift?  Peak of 720 calls per hour and 1 minute per call = 12 dispatchers How many employees do I need to staff 12 per shift?  Three 8 hour shifts X 12 dispatchers = 36 dispatchers for 24 hour coverage  “Vacancy factor” is used to account for time off.  36 x 1.7 = 61.2 employees

26. “Vacancy Factor” Indicates how many persons it takes to fill a position for a single shift, taking into account vacation, sick leave, training days, and other types of leave. 1. Total the number of days-off for all dispatchers including days off per week, vacation, sick time, training days etc. 2. Divide the total by the number of employees to obtain an individual average days-off per employee. 3. Subtract the above figure from 365 (days in a year) to estimate the average "days-on” per employee. 4. Divide 365 by the above number to obtain the vacancy or factor. 911 call centers average between 1.4 to 1.7.