1. Historical Demography at the Open of the Early Modern Period Models, Methods, Sources, Facts

5. London’s Population Lists of taxpayers in lay subsidy rolls –1292, 1319, 1332: 1,636 - 1,820 –(doesn’t include ‘foreigners’, women, those with less than 6s 8d or 10s. of movable property 1300: 40,000 at least (Ekwall, subsidy rolls) 1340: 60,000 (Russell) 1340: 100,000 (Keene, Cheapside property) General estimate: London’s population before plague was c. 45,000

6. Demographic History Facts At least 80 percent of the population lived in the countryside and were directly engaged in farming the land Ratio of people to land was of “overwhelming significance to the economy” and it changed over time Break point is mid 14 th century (Black Death)

7. Population Before Black Death (1348-50) Population doubled or trebled between end of 11 th century and beginning of 14 th –E.g. manor of Taunton, Somerset rose 228 percent from 1212-1312 Peak population 6 million Major reduction by famines 1315-17 Late 15 th century – c. 2 million people in England

9. Why the Population Decline? Subsistence crises of 1515-17 Plague (mortality estimates vary from 20 to 50 percent)

10. Sources J. Hatcher and M. Bailey, Modelling the Middle Ages (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001) Steven Inwood, A History of London (NY: Carroll & Graff, 1998) Larry Poos, A Rural Society after the Black Death (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991) Martha Carlin, Medieval Southwark (London: Hambledon, 1996) Zvi Razi, Life, Marriage and Death in a Medieval Parish (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980)

17. Halesowen, West Midlands