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Forecasting Demand for Services. 2 Learning Objectives Recommend the appropriate forecasting model for a given situation. Recommend the appropriate forecasting.

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Presentation on theme: "Forecasting Demand for Services. 2 Learning Objectives Recommend the appropriate forecasting model for a given situation. Recommend the appropriate forecasting."— Presentation transcript:

1 Forecasting Demand for Services

2 2 Learning Objectives Recommend the appropriate forecasting model for a given situation. Recommend the appropriate forecasting model for a given situation. Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise. Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise. Describe the features of exponential smoothing. Describe the features of exponential smoothing. Conduct time series forecasting using exponential smoothing with trend and seasonal adjustments. Conduct time series forecasting using exponential smoothing with trend and seasonal adjustments.

3 3 Delphi Forecasting Exercise In what future election will a woman become President of the United States?

4 4 Year1 st Round2 nd RoundFinal Round 2004 20122 201642 2020222 2024322 2028342 2032234 2036234 2040224 2044343 Never123

5 5 Delphi Method Nuclear Power Industry Example 165615356 No jdgmt. Strongly disagr. Disagr. Disagr. Somewh. Uncert. Agree somewh. Agree Strongly agree Round 1 Round 2 Round 3

6 6 Historical Analogy

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