1. www.lirneasia.net Forecasting mobile teledensity Pakistan Example

2. www.lirneasia.net Mobile Teledensity Current Trend

3. www.lirneasia.net Maximum mobile penetration Population > 15 = 66.41% % that own more than 1 SIM - SEC A,B & C : 14% - BOP : 12% - Weighted Average : 12.6% Maximum mobile teledensity = 66.41(1.126) = 75% Maximum mobile penetration = 0.75

4. www.lirneasia.net 2008 Forecast Using T@BOP data 59% of BOP will have a mobile phone by year 2008

5. www.lirneasia.net Pakistan Population BOP Target population = 77 million i.e. 77 million = 58.06% of BOP population Population > 15 = 66.41% Therefore population > 15 = 88 million 59% of this 88 million will have a mobile by 2008 The vertical growth is 8,315,721 (88 million x 59%) + 8,315,721 people at BOP will have a mobile by 2008 60,461,045 people at BOP will have a mobile by 2008

6. www.lirneasia.net 2008 Forecast SEC A,B & C The total population age>15 = 21,323,599 Number of respondents in the sample = 685 Sampling error = 3.24% The same technique can be used for SEC A,B & C 19,096,953 people at SEC A,B & C will have a mobile phone by 2008

7. www.lirneasia.net 2008 Forecast Summary Mobiles at BOP= 60,461,045 Mobiles at SEC A,B & C= 19,096,953 Total number of mobiles= 79,557,998 Total population estimate= 164,741,924 Mobile teledensity= 48.29%

8. www.lirneasia.net Trend line with 2008 forecast The trend has a logistic function !

9. www.lirneasia.net The logistic function

10. www.lirneasia.net Estimating “a” : The upperbound for the mobile teledensity Population > 15 = 66.41% % that own more than 1 SIM - SEC A,B & C : 14% - BOP : 12% - Weighted Average : 12.6% Maximum mobile teledensity = 66.41(1.126) = 75% a = 0.75

11. www.lirneasia.net Fitting the logistic function

12. www.lirneasia.net Assumptions  Age of the population is normally distributed with a mean of 22.9 and a standard deviation of 18.6  No one below age 15 will use mobile phones  Population growth rate is 1.8%  All the people who have only a fixed phone will buy a mobile since they can afford  Maximum mobile teledensity will be 75%