1. Adele Menniti and Maura Misiti CNR Irpps - Institute for Population Research and Social Policies Fertility Preferences and Intentions : Some Results from an Italian Study

2. The Italian Study zThe general aim: to reach a better understanding of Italian fertility through the collection of information on women with regard to particular aspects (the desired family size, the short-term fertility intentions, attitudes towards postponement at 1 st child, childless, out-of wedlock births)

3. The Italian Study zEach year two separate, but related, interviews have been conducted First interview: The respondents are representative of Italian women living in a couple and aged between 20 and 39 years, telephone survey (C.A.T.I. System), quota sampling (3 age groups and 3 geographical divisions). The sample size is 1500. Re-interview on the same respondents two years later. Size ~ 950. z The study started in 1998.

4. This presentation focuses on: consistency between the fertility intentions referred during the 1st interview and the subsequent behaviour the stability over time of fertility intentions z Data used: 2001-2002 survey and corresponding re-interview (N= 1926)

5. Characteristics of respondents z Age: 22-41 (average=33) z Union duration = average 11 years z N. children 0=12%; 1=29%; 2=47%; 3+=11% z Education: low (32%), medium (55%); high (13%) z Employed women =57%; housewives =39%; open-ended contract=86%; full timers =65% z partners are slightly lower educated and enjoy a better occupational status

6. Changes occurring between 1st and 2nd interview zfew respondents changed the type of union/partner (5%). z 80% remained in the same occupational status In the remainder, there are more women who found work than those who lost their job. z 96% of male partners remained in the same occupational status.

7. The drop-out

8. IRPPS Questions zTwo separate questions on fertility expectations: long-term: “How many children would you like to have in total, including those that you already have or are about to have?” short-term: “Do you intend to have a child in the next two years?” zReason of the inconsistency: “When we contact you in the previous survey, you said that you had (not) the intention to have a child: there have been specific reason for not realizing your plan?”

9. Fertility intention and subsequent behaviour consistent intended mothers: women who intended to have a child within 2 years at the 1 st interview and had the child or were pregnant at the 2 nd interview inconsistent intended mothers: women who intended to have a child and did not achieve their plan consistent non-intended mothers women who did not intend to have a child and accomplished their plan inconsistent non-intended mothers women who did not intend to have a child and had a child or were pregnant Other two groups: respondents who answered “I don’t know” to the question on fertility intentions (8%).

10. Fertility intention and subsequent behaviour % consistent intended mothers 10 inconsistent intended mothers 17 consistent non-intended mothers69 inconsistent non-intended mothers 4 Overall consistency: 79% Among the “uncertain” women, the number of those who did not have children is higher than women who did (76% vs. 24%)

11. The consistent intended mothers zWomen achieving their short-term fertility intentions are: young respondents, with low parity and short union duration; respondents who are furthest from reaching the desired family size and those whose desired family size is 2 children; respondents who increased/unchanged the desired family size; workers, teachers and clerks. z Consistency rate exceeding 50% is not reached in any group of women, thus confirming a rather weak relationship between the short-term positive fertility intentions and subsequent births.

12. The inconsistent intended mothers zwomen who encounter greater difficulties in achieving the birth they intended are aged >30 years, with an union duration >10ys, and with 2 children; respondents who have reduced their desired family size; employed in high-status jobs (professionals, managers and entrepreneurs), housewives, low educated; respondents who had stated that their partner did not intend to have a child in the short term.

13. Differences between consistent intended mothers and inconsistent intended mothers z The consistent intended mothers are women who have had a partner for a short time, young, childless (or if they are already mothers have young children), employed in medium- or low-status jobs and either maintain or increase the desired family size. z The inconsistent respondents are at the near-end of their reproductive life, “weak” respondents (low educated/ housewives), women with demanding jobs and respondents who have reduced their desired family size. z The desired family size is subject to change throughout the life. It is important to take into due account this aspect when analysing data on fertility expectations/gap between desired and realised fertility.

14. The inconsistent intended mothers: reasons for not having the intended child Health24 Work 18 Economic 11 Not feeling ready 11 Couple 9 Age of the child (too young) 6 Age of the respondent 2 Satisfied 3

15. The inconsistent intended mothers. Do they Postpone or Renounce? zThe “early postponers”: women that at the re-interview declared they want to have a number of children higher than the one they have had, and intended to have the next child within 2 years (48%). zThe “late postponers” : women who at the re-interview declared they want to reach a number of children higher than the one they already had, but did not intend to have the next child within 2 years (24%). zThe “renouncers”: respondents who have reduced the number of children they wanted to the level they have already reached (28%).

16. The profile of the postponers and renouncers Early postponers Late postponers Renoucers -Age 30-34 20-29 35-39 -Education high - low -N.children 0.6 1.0 1.5 -Status employed- housewive -Type of Occupation teacher/clerk worker professional/manager/entrepr. -Union duration low mediumhigh -Desired Family Size 2.07 2.2 1.5 -Change in the Desired unchanged Family Size & increase unchanged decreased -Reason for work & couple & economic inconsistency health age of child. Women’s age

17. Postponers & renouncers For women their age, working position, the number of children already had, the marital condition seem to be determining factors to maintain or modify their reproductive strategy. An higher age can definitively alter the fertility intentions of the inconsistent intended mothers (and depressing their fertility). A younger age often involves a postponing attitude, both in the short (for women around 35) and in the medium term (for the younger respondents). The time required to have the (additional) child seems to be influenced by the number of children the women already have. Those who are not yet mothers intend to achieve their desire for motherhood in the short term, those who already have a child postpone the birth of the next one to better time, when the commitment for the child already born is lightened, when they have better economic conditions or when they have a stronger couple relationship.

18. Cont’ Postponers & renouncers The women involved in jobs requiring significant commitments of time and responsibility, and the housewives, are classified in the sub-group of renouncers; the former might have problems of reconciliation between work and family life, while the latter suffer economic problems. The respondents with medium- or low-status jobs are accounted for among women who postpone the birth of the child, and are to be found respectively among the “early” postponers and the “late” postponers.

19. The consistent non-intended mothers z 95% of respondents with negative expectations, had no child within the 2-year. The prediction value of the negative fertility intentions is very high. z The group shows all the characteristics of the women who do not intend to have children in the short term: high marital-union duration, 2 children, and having the eldest child who already grown up.

20. Some conclusive comments The Italian survey showed that the consistency between fertility expectations and behaviour varies according to the type of intention. Among the non-intended mothers the consistency is high -95%- and in line with the results obtained from other studies. The motivations inducing the women to state that they do not want children are stronger than those leading them to declare that they want children. The result for the women who had expressed positive fertility intentions is less comforting, since many of them do not achieve their expectations.

21. Some conclusive comments In our study, a relevant decision we adopted concerned the time interval to be considered in the short-term fertility expectations. Our analysis highlights that the majority of the inconsistent intended mothers did not renounce the idea of having an (additional) child. This finding emphasizes the relevance in studies on fertility expectations of the timing for the birth of the intended child. The level of inconsistency of the intended mothers may have been influenced by the contingent/specific causes (the worsening of the economic situation, the lack of effective family policies). The drop-out rate, which is higher for women who are young and with low parity, may have contributed to raising the percentage of inconsistent intended mothers.

22. The Desired Family Size Changes z The desired family size is the result of a range of interlinked factors and respond to both external conditioning, social pressure and to personal conditions and prerogatives. z Our study shows that women who want 3 or more children are the ones who most often change their wishes; this aspect, together with the fact that the 2-child family increasingly corresponds to the aspirations of Italian women, makes a significant rise in families with more than 2 children unlikely in the future.