1. Using Regression Discontinuity Analysis to Measure the Impacts of Reading First Howard S. Bloom MDRCHoward.bloom@mdrc.org

2. About this Talk Introduce key elements of regression discontinuity design and analysis Introduce key elements of regression discontinuity design and analysis Use the Reading First Impact Study to illustrate the approach Use the Reading First Impact Study to illustrate the approach Consider the conditions necessary for internally valid results Consider the conditions necessary for internally valid results Consider the conditions affecting external validity Consider the conditions affecting external validity

3. About the Study Mandated by Congress Mandated by Congress Funded by IES Funded by IES Conducted by Abt Associates, MDRC, and Westat Conducted by Abt Associates, MDRC, and Westat To provide rigorous impact estimates in a purposive but diverse sample of sites To provide rigorous impact estimates in a purposive but diverse sample of sites

4. About the Program A cornerstone of No Child Left Behind A cornerstone of No Child Left Behind Roughly $1 billion annually Roughly $1 billion annually Based on scientifically validated approaches to teaching reading in lower grades (K – 3) Based on scientifically validated approaches to teaching reading in lower grades (K – 3) Promotes the five basic elements of scientifically-based reading instruction Promotes the five basic elements of scientifically-based reading instruction Goal is for all kids to read at grade level by third grade Goal is for all kids to read at grade level by third grade Treatment comprises money, professional development and requirements to base instruction on reading research Treatment comprises money, professional development and requirements to base instruction on reading research Funding process: Funding process:  Feds fund state proposals  States fund district proposals  Districts fund schools

5. Initial Evaluation Design Focus of the Reading First Impact Study Focus of the Reading First Impact Study  Impacts on reading instruction  Impacts on reading achievement  Relationships between instruction and achievement Original Study Design Original Study Design  Randomize 60 schools  From 6 to 10 districts  Half to the program and half to a control group Barriers to the Original Design Barriers to the Original Design  Many states and districts were funded already  Reading First promotes purposive selection

6. Final Evaluation Design 17 RDDs plus 1 cluster-randomized experiment 17 RDDs plus 1 cluster-randomized experiment 18 sites from 13 states 18 sites from 13 states 17 school districts plus 1 state 17 school districts plus 1 state Schools from just above and below local cut-point Schools from just above and below local cut-point 50/50 treatment and comparison group mix 50/50 treatment and comparison group mix

7. Rating Distributions for Selected Sites

8. Regression Discontinuity Analysis For a Single Study Site

9. RDD Model for A Site where: Y i = outcome for school i, T i = one for schools in the treatment group and zero otherwise, R i = rating for school i, e i = random error term for school i, which is independently and identically distributed

10. Necessary Assumptions Outcome-by-rating regression is continuous function (absent program) Outcome-by-rating regression is continuous function (absent program) Cut-point is determined independently of ratings Cut-point is determined independently of ratings Ratings are determined independently of cut-point Ratings are determined independently of cut-point Functional form of outcome-by-rating regression is specified properly Functional form of outcome-by-rating regression is specified properly

11. Variance of Impact Estimator  2 = variance of mean student outcomes across schools in treatment group or comparison group treatment group or comparison group R 1 2 = square of correlation between school outcomes and ratings within treatment groups ratings within treatment groups R 2 2 = square of correlation between school treatment status and ratings ratings = total variation in treatment status across schools = total variation in treatment status across schools

12. Implications of Variance For Sample Size RDD requires 3 to 4 times as many schools as corresponding experiment RDD requires 3 to 4 times as many schools as corresponding experiment

13. Estimating Impacts for the Pooled Sample Treating sites as fixed effects Treating sites as fixed effects Accounting for clustering Accounting for clustering Using covariates Using covariates

14. Estimating Impacts for the Full Sample The estimating equation provides site-specific coefficient estimates, includes a pretest and accounts for clustering of students in classrooms in schools

15. Specification Tests Using the RDD to compare baseline characteristics of Reading First schools and comparison schools Using the RDD to compare baseline characteristics of Reading First schools and comparison schools Re-estimating impacts and sequentially deleting schools at each site with highest and lowest ratings Re-estimating impacts and sequentially deleting schools at each site with highest and lowest ratings Re-estimating impacts and adding for each site: Re-estimating impacts and adding for each site:  a treatment status/rating interaction  a quadratic rating term  interacting the quadratic with treatment status Conducting a pooled graphical analysis Conducting a pooled graphical analysis

16. Outcome Measures and Data Sources Classroom instructional practices Classroom instructional practices  Direct observation Student achievement Student achievement  SAT-10 reading comprehension test