1. Prudence Philosophy

2. Aquinas' Virtues ✦ Prudence-defines good ✦ Justice-realization of reason in human affairs-effects this good, since it belongs to justice to establish the order of reason in all human affairs ✦ Temperance--removing the obstacles to the establishment of justice in human affairs due to pleasure ✦ Fortitude-removing the obstacles to the establishment of justice in human affairs due to sorrow

3. SCAR S elf-Reliance for balancing the risks arising from dependence and independence C ritical Awareness for balancing the risks arising from homogeneity and heterogeneity A daptability for balancing the risks arising from continuity and discontinuity R esilience for balancing the risks arising from unity and plurality

4. Adaptability Adaptability closely related to Aquinas' virtue of prudence Adaptability-->responsiveness, flexibility, malleability, deformability, plasticity, and active responsiveness. Adaptability is the ability to easily modify when and where needed oneself, one's actions, and/or one's circumstances in response to environmental change so as to maintain one's course of action.

5. Adaptability Active adaptability—to adjust the circumstances to your actions –Creates an adaptive posture, a repertoire of controlled environments and adaptive actions Passive adaptability—to adjust one's actions to the circumstances –Creates an adaptive state, a repertoire of passive powers that allow the organism to modify itself in order to adapt to changing conditions

6. Adaptability In a non-equilibrium world in which infinite things in infinite ways occur and in which systems are subject to critical states, crashes, and collapses on various scales, only the adaptable will survive.

7. Dependence and Independence

8. Homogeneity and Heterogeneity

9. Prudence and Adaptability Aquinas' discussion of the parts of prudence will assist in identifying ways of becoming more adaptive

10. The Parts of Prudence ✦ The Possession of Appropriate Knowledge ❖ Knowledge itself ❖ Discovery of knowledge ❖ Use of Knowledge ✦ The Application of That Knowledge to Action

11. Prudence ✦ Two Types of Knowledge Are Needed ❖ Knowledge about Past History ❖ Knowledge about the Present Understanding

12. Four Adaptive Strategies K-approach-->hierarchy, stable environment allows extreme specialization r-approach-->patchy and unpredictable environment fosters scramble competition M-approach-->lack of resources favors mutualistic exchange of resources W-approach-->lack of any favorable conditions favors withdrawal

13. Continuity vs. Discontinuity

14. Historical Knowledge Strategies that are adaptive under conditions of social stability are no longer adaptive under conditions of social instability and collapse. Most education is training you for social conditions that may not exist. You may need to shift to entrepreneurial or mutualistic activities to survive. You may need to withdraw from all or part of the social structure.

15. Fall of Rome Roman economy based on looting the surplus of other societies Culminated with Augustus' conquest of Egypt The costs of complexity became greater than the revenues generated to support it. Consequences No reserves for emergencies Currency debasement with inflation Raised taxes destroying middle class and farmers Order breaks down Increasingly larger, coercive, and omnipresent state

16. Three Mile Island Accident The accident began with mechanical failures. Inadequate training and poor design from a hidden indicator light led an operator to manually override the automatic emergency cooling system of the reactor because the operator mistakenly believed that there was too much coolant water present in the reactor. Multiple failures in a complex system of tightly- coupled units leads to cascading failures.

17. Adaptive Methodologies Generalist--performs a broad and highly variable range of tasks Polyspecialist--performs a limited number of distinct alternative tasks Specialist-performs a narrow range of tasks Relying upon a special set of skills may be high risky in unstable conditions. Develop a set of generalist skills. Combine them with polyspecialization.

18. Understanding What phase of the social cycle is currently active? Confidence-->Alarm-->Panic-->Despair--> Caution-->Boldness-->Confidence We are currently in the initial stages of the Panic phase. Your need for adaptability will increase as our society continues on the downward part of the cycle.

19. Understanding What degree of social cycle is active? The Four Fractures represent four scales upon which a social cycle can be operative. The higher the degree of the social cycle that is operative, the more adaptive you will have to become. Given to the size of the previous confidence, the odds are very high that a 200-year cycle is peaking.

20. More Parts of Prudence Skills Needed for the Discovery of Knowledge Teachabilty No one can experience everything they need to experience all by themselves Learn how to learn from the experience of others Shrewdness Learn to to teach yourself Learn how to discover knowledge for oneself

21. Prudence ✦ Use of Knowledge ❖ Reasoning Know the different ways of drawing conclusions Be able to evaluate these reasonings ❖ Judgment Learn how to rightly apply abstract knowledge to particular situations Find a mentor from whom you can learn

22. More Parts of Prudence ✦ Knowledge can be applied to action with respect to ❖ Ends ❖ Means ❖ Circumstances

23. Prudence ✦ Foresight-see what the realization of one's goals require ❖ The end is something distant to which that which occurs in the present has to be directed. ❖ Develop due foresight of the future ❖ Model alternative futures and alternative ways for achieving your goals. ❖ Have a Plan B, C, etc. ❖ Be creative in developing your plans

24. Prudence ✦ Circumspection--compare the available means with the circumstances – Model alternative means for achieving your goals – Be creative in the identification and use of means.

25. Prudence Caution--avoid obstacles arising from the changeableness of the world All choice have risks Identify and manage these risks Learn to cut your losses before they overwhelm you. Remember that the trend is your friend until it ends.

26. Prudence ✦ Frequent risks ❖ Avoid ❖ Mitigate with a Hedge ✦ Rare risks ❖ You may not able to take precautions against them ❖ However, by exercising prudence, you may be able to prepare against all the surprises of chance, so as to suffer less harm thereby.

27. Vices Opposed to Prudence Defect in decision making-->hastiness Defect in applying the decision-->thoughtlessness Defect in following through on the decision -- >inconstancy Defect in executing the decision-->negligence and improvidence

28. Vices Opposed to Prudence ✦ Precipitation-due to a defect in the act of counsel ❖ rashness-hastiness ❖ Occurs when one is rushed into action by the impulse of his will or of a passion

29. Vices Opposed to Prudence ✦ Thoughtlessness--lack of right judgment ❖ Occurs when one fails to judge rightly through lack of ❖ Caution ❖ Circumspection

30. Vices Opposed to Prudence ✦ Inconstancy--failure of command ❖ Withdraws too easily from a definite good purpose ❖ Forsakes the greater good ❖ Fails to follow through on his/her decisions

31. Vices Opposed to Prudence ✦ Failures of action ❖ Negligence ❖ lack of due solicitude ❖ the omission of an act or circumstance ❖ lack of a prompt will ❖ Improvidence ❖ lacking foresight ❖ neglecting to provide for future needs ❖ through too much earnestness in endeavoring to obtain wrong things