1. © Crown copyright Met Office Met Office activities related to needs of humanitarian agencies Anca Brookshaw

2. What does the Met Office currently do? development of science and relevant operational products development of technical infrastructure for advanced data analysis, visualisation and dissemination pilot studies on incorporating meteorological prediction in decision tools support to WMO projects and initiatives aimed at improving weather and climate services © Crown copyright Met Office

3. Current status of scientific capability for long- range predictions (7 days - 2 years horizon) ensemble forecasting system based on high resolution (~50km), high complexity coupled model linked with model development (all scientific advances incorporated very quickly into operational forecasts) multi-timescales (from medium-range to decades) frequent updates high skill comparable to that of other leading systems for ENSO unprecedented skill for North Atlantic Oscillation (wintertime climate in northern mid- latitudes) and West North Pacific Subtropical High (east Asia summer monsoon) scientific developments targeted at improving predictability on seasonal timescales, for Africa - CSRP © Crown copyright Met Office

4. CSRP: Met Office Hadley Centre – DfID climate science research partnership © Crown copyright Met Office

5. Activities supporting relevant WMO projects and initiatives Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU) Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecasting (LC-LRFMME) Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project © Crown copyright Met Office

6. To improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events To promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services S2S objectives

7. Evaluating the potential predictability of sub- seasonal events, including identifying windows of opportunity for increased forecast skill, with special emphasis on high impact weather events Understanding systematic errors and biases in the subseasonal to seasonal forecast range Comparing, verifying and testing multi-model combinations from these forecasts and quantifying their uncertainty Focusing on some specific extreme event case studies, such as the Russian heatwave of 2010, the floods in Pakistan in 2010 and Australia in 2011, and the European cold spell of 2012 Research priorities – scientific challenges

8. Responds to members’ requirements Contributes to the GFCS agenda Critical mass of the network Climate-weather synergies Sharing and dissemination of knowledge Informed decision making Early warnings Saved lives, properties Return on investment Benefits of science

9. The UK Met Office is developing a cloud-based service to facilitate the dissemination, manipulation and visualisation of data (observations and forecast) For the S2S project, the Met Office cloud service and ECMWF’s archive can be used alongside, they complement each other: ECMWF’s archive is designed to host the full database. It is ideal for big but infrequent retrievals of data MO cloud system is designed to host a fraction (e.g. 10% most frequently accessed) of the database. It is ideal for small but frequent retrievals of data linked to end-user applications Technical infrastructure: ClimateCloud Disseminating, manipulating and visualising data using cloud computing © Crown copyright Met Office

10. Incorporating meteorological information in decision tools working with NMHs and national and international agencies on incorporating long-range forecasting information in existing early warning /disaster mitigation tools (e.g Philippines) or building such tools (E.g. Singapore and southeast Asia) development of user-relevant products (rainy season onset in Africa) © Crown copyright Met Office

11. WMO Global Producing Centres for Long Range Forecasts

12. Example of current or recent activities in support of humanitarian aid projects · Deployment of resources to support the Haiti relief forecasting effort · Development of services for aid agencies to use at the community level (CARE & Christian Aid) as part of STARCK+ ( strengthening adaptation resilience to climate change in Kenya ) - a DFID Kenya project · Working with stakeholders, users, NGOs and forecasters in the development of a pilot early warning system in Rwanda · Operational service to charities to support their resource mobilisation · Horizon scanning for UK government departments, under the SHED initiative ( use of science in humanitarian emergencies disasters) © Crown copyright Met Office

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