1. Decision Making in Groups

2. Outline I. Problems in Decision Making Failure to share information Risky shift/polarization II. Video: GroupThink

3. Are Group Decisions Always Good? Of course not. Why do groups sometimes fail?

4. Information Sharing Problems in Groups Fail to pool unshared information effectively Tendency to oversample shared information This tendency is exacerbated in tasks without ‘correct’ decisions Leaders can prompt members to revealed unshared information

5. Group Exercise Using the scale above, indicate your agreement with the following statement (write your name on your paper): The final exam in this course should be an essay exam rather than multiple choice/short answer. 1105 Completely Disagree Completely Agree

6. Groups: Moderating or Polarizing? Common belief: Groups exert a moderating effect on their members Groups more moderate decision makers than individuals But then… In the early 1960s researchers questioned this assumption

7. Risky Shift Research Choice Dilemmas Questionnaire (CDQ) 12 life-situation problems involving a central person with a choice between more or less risky courses of action. The participant's task is to choose the lowest likelihood of success he or she would demand before recommending the risky alternative. SS complete the CDQ alone, after discussing it with a group, and again alone

8. Risky Shift Research Comparing individual responses to group responses: SS generally advocated riskier decisions in groups! This change carried over to later individual choices This is the RISKY SHIFT

9. Risky Shift Research Researchers found risky shifts on many attitudes, beliefs, values, judgements and perceptions. Some researchers found a different kind of shift: Shift toward caution Risky shift is part of a larger process!

10. Group Polarization Discussion leads to group polarization: Judgments made after group discussion will be more extreme in the same direction as the average of individual judgments prior to discussion. The direction of the polarization depends on the group members’ original viewpoints. Thus, before we can predict how the discussion will polarize the group, we must know the initial opinions of the members.

11. Group Polarization Risk Caution Cautious Shift Risky Shift 591 7 3 ABEF C & D

12. Why? Why do we shift our judgments to match the position that our group initially values? Two theoretical explanations: Persuasive arguments theory Social comparison theory

13. Persuasive Arguments Theory After discussion, we can generate more arguments favoring the more valued alternative. With the CDQ, arguments favoring risk rather than caution are more plentiful.

14. Social Comparison Theory During group discussion people actively compare themselves with others When they discover that some members of the group have stronger attitudes than they do, they begin endorsing more extreme positions.

15. Groupthink Illusion of invulnerability Assumptions of morality Realisations Stereotyping Self-censorship Illusions of unanimity Mind-guarding Direct pressure Illusion of invulnerability Assumptions of morality Realisations Stereotyping Self-censorship Illusions of unanimity Mind-guarding Direct pressure …mode of thinking in a cohesive, insulated, high success, prestige group with strong minded, powerful leader (with Praetorian Guard). Desire for unanimity overrides motivation to evaluate alternatives properly. Consequences  discussion curtailed, limited alternatives  limits on information seeking and re-evaluation of facts  outsiders less credible so fail to import expert advice  weak contingency planning

16. Video: Groupthink