1. 1 Unemployment Insurance Financing Situation - 2008 Dr. Wayne Vroman The Urban Institute wvroman@urban.org EARN Conference Presentation December 9, 2008

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3. Lowest months in 2007 - Aug.-Oct.3

4. 4 Pre-recession Reserves: 51 States Net Reserves, Dec. 31 ($Bill.) (1) Total Payroll ($Bill.) (2) Reserve Ratio =100*(1)/(2) 198936.871,9181.92 200054.053,7021.46 200737.624,7600.79 2007/2000.7321.268.541

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6. 6 The Reserve Ratio Multiple - RRM RRM - Measure of UI trust fund adequacy Considers three factors –(1). Net end-of-year reserves –(2). Scale of state economy (total payroll as proxy) –(3). Potential benefit payouts (highest past 12 month payout rate as proxy) Formula RRM = [(1)/(2)]%/(3)% Numerator – [(1)/(2)]% - Reserve ratio as a % Denominator – (3)% - High cost rate as a % Suggested Solvency Standard - RRM = 1.0 U.S. RRM December 31, 2007 = 0.35 U.S. RRM October 31, 2008 = 0.32

7. 50 states plus D.C.7

8. 8 Summary: Large and Small States-2007 Net Reserves ($Bill) (1) Payroll ($Bill) (2) Reserve Ratio [(1)/(2)]% (3) High Cost Rate % (4) RRM (3)/(4) (5) All States 37.64,7600.792.240.353 10 Large States 12.62,6900.472.480.190 10 Small States 2.251181.912.990.639 Large/ Small 5.222.80.250.830.297

9. 9 Presence of Indexation in 2008 Indexed Tax Base Big StatesAll Other States 51 “States” Max WBA Indexed 165 (CT, IL, MA, OH, PA) 930 Max WBA Not Indexed 1 (AK)12821 Number of States and Share of Employment 17 18% 17 67% 17 15% 51 100%

10. 10 Tax Base Indexation Present in 16 states (out of 51) Present in just 4 large states (Minnesota, New Jersey, North Carolina, Washington) Indexation percentages range from 100 percent of average statewide wages (Hawaii, Idaho) to 47.5 percent (Oklahoma) Indexation associated with high tax bases (simple averages - $24,275 indexed versus $8,971 non-indexed) and high taxable wage proportions Indexation associated with high trust fund reserves

11. UI Financial Data ET Handbook 39411 UI Tax Bases in 2007 Tax BaseIndexedNot Indexed Above 25,00060 16,000 – 25,00090 10,000 – 15,00019 8,500- 9,50009 8,00008 7,00009 1635

12. 17 state simple averages12

13. 17 state simple averages13

14. 14 Indexation and Risk of Borrowing, 1991 and 2001 Recessions Indexed Tax Base Big States: Tax Base not indexed All Other States 51 “States” Max WBA Indexed N =16 2/32 = 0.062 N =5 4/10=0.400 N = 9 1/18 = 0.056 N = 30 7/60 = 0.117 Max WBA Not Indexed N =1 0/2 = 0.000 N =12 8/24 = 0.333 N = 8 1/16 = 0.062 N = 21 9/42 = 0.214 No. of States and Risk Share of Emp. N = 17 2/34 = 0.058 18% N = 17 12/34 = 0.353 67% N = 17 2/34 = 0.058 15% N = 51 16/102=0.157 100%

15. 15 Indexation and Reserve Ratio Multiples – October 2008 RRM – Oct. 31, 2008 Indexed Programs Non-indexed Programs 51 Programs Below 0.5042731 0.50 to 0.996612 1.00 and Above 628 Total163551

16. 16 Indexation of the Maximum Weekly Benefit Present in 30 states in 2008 Maximum as a percent of the average weekly wage ranges from 26 percent to 67 percent in 2007 –One state below 30 percent (District of Columbia) –14 states from 30.0 to 39.9 percent – 2 indexed –16 states from 40.0 to 49.9 percent – 10 indexed –12 states from 50.0 to 59.9 percent – 10 indexed –8 states from 60 to 66.6 percent – 8 indexed –Indexation associated with above-average maximum benefits and with above-average benefit replacement rates

17. 17 state simple averages17

18. 17 state simple averages18

19. 19 Summary To date the downturn in the labor market is of unknown severity Recession will be more severe than in 1991 or 2001 Aggregate reserve situation of the states is not strong –A serious recession will cause several states to need loans –Large states have generally low reserve ratios and RRMs –Indexed states have generally high taxable wage proportions and high reserves Indexed states generally have higher weekly benefit maxima and higher benefit replacement rates than other states

20. 20 Suggestions to Improve UI Financing - 1 UI Taxes –Raise and index the federal UI tax base 1.Increase it enough to make half of total payroll taxable, say $20,000 2.Index the federal taxable wage base 3.This will cause many states to raise their state UI tax bases to remain in conformity with federal experience rating requirements –Increase the oversight of experience rating 1.Oversee state reporting to ensure that all states have at least some employers at 5.4 percent tax rate or higher 2.Study the growth in employers taxed at the minimum rate 3.Prohibit tax holidays as enacted in Georgia, Kansas and North Carolina in the 1990s

21. 21 Suggestions to Improve UI Financing - 2 Encourage states to build their trust funds 1.Pay all states an added 1% on balances between RRM = 0.25 and RRM = 0.50 2.Reward states with “large” balances with a bonus interest rate (added 1%) for loans made to other states with low or negative reserves 3.Prohibit interest arbitrage when trust fund interest rates exceed the yield in the private bond market and a state deposits the proceeds of a private loan into its UI trust fund 4.Prohibit “gaming” of cash flow loans through repeated repayments of Treasury loans on Sept. 30 th of successive years 5.Do not allow cash flow loans to states with “inadequate” pre-recession trust fund balances