1. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007 A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari A FIR & Sub-mm View on Galaxy Formation & Evolution Taking Stock of Spitzer & SCUBA Planning for Herschel & SCUBA2 Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero Thanks also to Carol, Dave, Jim, Matt, Michael, Seb & all the ISOCAM, ELAIS, SHADES, SWIRE, SPIRE & SCUBA2 folks

2. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007 A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari A FIR & Sub-mm View on Galaxy Formation & Evolution Taking Stock of Spitzer & SCUBA Planning for Herschel Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero Thanks also to Carol, Dave, Jim, Matt, Michael, Seb & all the ISOCAM, ELAIS, SHADES, SWIRE, SPIRE & SCUBA2 folks

3. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Hi there!;-) Mattia Vaccari  Italian, PostDoc in Padova since Sep 05 & previously –MSc in Physics (00) & PhD in Space Science & Technology (03) @ University of Padova –PostDoc @ Imperial College London (03-05)  Long- Extragalactic Surveys and Space Astronomy –ISO Satellite : Post-Mission ISO-CAM/PHOT Software Development, ELAIS and HDF-N/S Data Reduction –Spitzer Satellite : SWIRE Consortium –SCUBA@JCMT : SHADES Consortium –SCUBA2@JCMT : Legacy Surveys Consortia –SPIRE@Herschel : Observation Planning, Pipeline Management + low-and-high-z GT Science –Number Counts, Clustering and Extragalactic Population Studies from ISO, Spitzer & SCUBA Surveys –Simulations of Instrumental & Science Performance of Future Space Missions : Herschel, JWST, SPICA & FIRI

4. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari The integrated extragalactic background light in the far-infrared and sub-millimeter region of the spectrum is approximately equal to the integrated background light in the optical and UV part of the spectrum. To develop a complete understanding of galaxy formation, this background light must be resolved into galaxies and their properties must be characterized. The Cosmic IR Background Radiation Resolved Into Sources

5. Modeling the FIR & Sub-mm Era  Long-wavelength observational astronomy is arguably experiencing its “golden era”, with new facilities (telescopes & instruments) coming on-line in an ever accelerating fashion  The sources making up the very bright and violently evolving universe discovered by IRAS first and the CIRB light later detected by COBE are being (and will increasingly be) detected and characterized at a pace largely reminiscent of optical astronomy  The paradigms of semi-analytical models will need time to properly adjust to and make sense of new results  Simpler and more flexible phenomenological models can be of great help in providing the first clues about the nature of such sources as well as in timely planning development and use of new facilities NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

6. The AF08 Model  The AF01 phenomenological model (Franceschini et al. 2001) was rather successful in explaining & “exploring” ISO results  Spitzer & SCUBA data (re)-analyses, however, called for a revamp  Through a simple backward evolution approach, AF08 describes available observables (number counts, z-distributions, L-functions, integrated CIRB levels…) in terms of number and luminosity evolution of four populations slowly or non-evolving disk galaxies [blue dotted lines] type-1 AGNs evolving as shown by UV and X-ray selected Quasars & Seyferts [green long-short-dashed lines] moderate-luminosity starbursts with peak emission at z ~ 1 [cyan dot-dashed lines] ultra-luminous starbursts with peak evolution between z = 2 and z = 4 [red long-dashed lines] NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

7. Modeling Benchmarks  Spitzer MIPS & SCUBA Number Counts largely available –Spitzer MIPS Deep & Narrow : GOODS & GTO & GO –Spitzer MIPS Wide & Shallow : SWIRE & GTO & GO –SCUBA Deep : Lensing Surveys –SCUBA Wide : SHADES  Spec & Phot Redshift Distributions in the works –Complete Redshift Distributions of 24 (& 70)  m sources –Redshift Distributions of SCUBA sources & related headaches  Ultimate Spitzer Luminosity Functions within reach  Extras : AzTEC@JCMT & BLAST surveys being reduced NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

8. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Spitzer MIPS Counts : 24  m SWIRE (Shupe in prep) GTO (Chary 04) but also (not shown) GTO (Papovich 04) FLS (Fadda 06) Remarkable agreement! Most stringent constraint provided by Spitzer to date

9. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Spitzer MIPS-Ge Counts : 70 & 160  m SWIRE (Vaccari in prep) FLS (Frayer 2006a) SWIRE (Vaccari in prep) FLS (Frayer 2006a) GTO & GO (Frayer 2006b) Reasonable agreement but comparison is hampered by poor areal coverage and sensitivity at 70 and 160  m respectively

10. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari SCUBA 850  m Counts SHADES (Coppin 2006) SCUBA Misc (Scott 2006) SCUBA Lensing (Knudsen 2008) Without ad hoc adjustments we seem to overpredict bright counts by some amount and perhaps more importantly miss the exact locus of their downturn

11. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari SCUBA & MAMBO Number Counts MAMBO (Greve 2004) SHADES (Coppin 2006) SCUBA Misc (Scott 2006) SCUBA Lensing (Knudsen 2008) Without ad hoc adjustments we seem to overpredict bright counts by some amount

12. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari First Hints At Herschel Counts 450  m SCUBA Counts Smail et al. 2002

13. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari First Hints At Herschel Counts 350  m CSO Counts Khan et al. 2007 Fainter data point from CSO Brighter data points from rescaling of Smail et al. 2002

14. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Redshift Distribution of 24  m Sources Available in the literature are various bits of heterogeneous information reporting an awkward and sometimes undocumented mix of spec & phot redshifts ALSO Largely unreleased material! Understandable but a little annoying from the modeler’s “baby food prone” point of view In order to improve this situation, we turned to Spitzer’s Legacy SWIRE Public (Dec 05) & Proprietary databases handily available BUT Lack of spec and/or deep phot coverage, new spec campaigns crushed by TACs or bad weather GOODS LOTS of ancillary data and, crucially, redshifts BUT Only 24  m public catalogue (in GOODS-S) released back in 2004

15. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari z-dist of GOODS-S 24  m Sources The Field 948 objects within GOODS-S MIPS 24  m Public Catalogue “LARGELY” reliable & complete down to 80  Jy 666 within GOODS- MUSIC 168 arcmin 2 area ACS z + ISAAC K sel. also imaged in UV&IRAC lots of spectroscopic & photometric z-info

16. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari ID & Redshift Information Full Likelihood Ratio (LR) Analysis based on GOODS-MUSIC catalogue MIPS fluxes vs IRAC fluxes of z+K-selected sources Archival search through ESO, COMBO-17 & GMASS databases Our own SED Fitting Flavor revamped HyperZ better exploring pars space by Giulia Rodighiero SWIRE empirical SED templates by Mari Polletta Out of 666 sources, 650 (97.5%) have robust redshifts 253 Spec-Z (40%) & 397 Phot-Z (60%) 499 via GOODS-MUSIC from LR analysis 59 via GOODS-MUSIC through Visual Checks 57 via COMBO-17 35 via case-by-case SED analysis through HyperZ “Full” Optical/NIR/IRAC (& MIPS-24!) SED info now available!

17. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari ID & Redshift Information HyperZ SED Fitting… Full Likelihood Ratio (LR) Analysis based on GOODS-MUSIC catalogue MIPS fluxes vs IRAC fluxes of z+K-selected sources Out of 666 sources, 650 (97.5%) have robust redshifts 253 Spec-Z (40%) & 397 Phot-Z (60%) 499 via GOODS-MUSIC from LR analysis 59 via GOODS-MUSIC through Visual Checks 57 via COMBO-17 35 via case-by-case SED analysis through HyperZ “Full” Optical/NIR/IRAC (& MIPS-24!) SED info now available!

18. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Redshift Distribution of 24  m Sources Overdensities Confirmed Successful Modeling No Ad Hoc Adjustments

19. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Z=0-2 24  m Luminosity Functions GOODS-S + GOODS-N + SWIRE-VVDS Fields (Rodighiero in prep) ~ 2000 sources with some of the best spec info available The determination of redshift-dependent Luminosity Functions require large corrections which depend to a large extent on the adopted SED templates, and particularly so for IR Bolometric (8-1000  m) Luminosity Functions

20. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Redshift Distribution of SCUBA Sources Not so bad…

21. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Anything Else to be Fed into the Picture Before Herschel & SCUBA2 & LMT ?  Is there any other pre-Herschel/SCUBA2/LMT dataset I should know about which is going to further constrain such models? –AzTEC & BLAST deep surveys? –Spitzer MIPS 8 & 24 micron Luminosity Functions? –…

22. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari What is Herschel? Will perform Photometry and Spectroscopy in the FIR and sub-mm region (60-670 μm) 3.5 m Diameter Telescope, ~80K two cameras/medium resolution spectrometers (PACS & SPIRE) + very high resolution heterodyne spectrometer (HIFI) To be launched in late 2008, minimum 3 years lifetime First Space Observatory at >~ 100 μm

23. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari The integrated extragalactic background light in the far-infrared and sub-millimeter region of the spectrum is approximately equal to the integrated background light in the optical and UV part of the spectrum. To develop a complete understanding of galaxy formation, this background light must be resolved into galaxies and their properties must be characterized. The Cosmic FIR Background Radiation Resolved Into Sources

24. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Constraining Bolometric Luminosity Herschel bands will be crucial in constraining the bolometric luminosity of galaxies. This will help untangle the contribution of AGN and star-formation cool/warm dust and thus constrain the star-formation history. Rest-frame emission from sources @ z=1 in Herschel bands vs model spectra

25. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari The case for a joint effort  PACS strengths –Excellent spatial resolution –Capabilities for FIR spectroscopy of selected subsamples  SPIRE strengths –Best exploitation of K-correction for high-z sources –Fast mapping speed  Both are needed for characterizing FIR/sub-mm properties of large samples of high-z objects

26. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel Key Science formation and evolution of galaxies – how and when did galaxies form? – is there an unknown population of high-z IR galaxies? – cosmologically evolving AGN/starburst symbiosis – star formation rates; bolometric luminosities; AGN fraction – connecting between near-IR and sub-millimetre galaxies star formation and the physics of the ISM – how do stars form out of the ISM? – circulation/enrichment of the ISM - astrochemistry – detailed studies of nearby galaxies study cometary, planetary, and satellite atmospheres – history of the solar system – pristine material in comets – water important line

27. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel Key Projects Will... exploit unique Herschel capabilities to address important scientific issues in a comprehensive manner require a large amount of observing time to be used in a uniform and coherent fashion produce well characterised and uniform datasets of high archival value occupy a large part of the mission - GT : ~ 90 % will be in the form of Key Projects - OT : ~ 40 % be done mainly early in the mission: - core science done in case of mishap - allows for follow-up

28. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari High-z GT Programme Will address issues like: How? Investing 850hrs of SPIRE and 650hrs of PACS GT Observing a Set of Blank Fields in Different Depths Observing a Sample of Rich Clusters (0.2 < z < 1.0) History of star formation and energy production Structure formation Cluster evolution CIRB fluctuations AGN-starburst connection After Guiderdoni et al. MNRAS 295, 877, 1998 10 100 1,00010,000 1000 100 10 1 0.1 10 12 L ¤ Z = 0.1 0.5 1 3 5 Flux density (mJy)  (  m) Herschel probes the rest-frame bolometric emission from galaxies as they formed most of their stars

29. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Wedding Cake Survey GOODS-S 0.04 deg^2GOODS-N 0.04 deg^2 GOODS-S/Groth/ Lockman 0.25 deg^2 Cosmos/XMM 2 deg^2 ES1/EN1/EN2/XMM/ Lockman... 50 deg^2 will probe L bol over a wide redshift range XMM/CDFS/Lockman 10 deg^2 Clusters

30. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Wedding Cake Survey Multi-band P(D) analysis Structure Formation; clustering on angular scales < 10 arcmin Lensing, SZ SEDs of Galaxies Contributing to the CIRB

31. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel EG GT Survey Wedding Cake http://astronomy.sussex.ac.uk/~sjo/Hermes/FieldsFinal.pdf http://astronomy.sussex.ac.uk/~sjo/Hermes/FieldsFinal.pdf NameAreaField PACS Time SPIRE Time 70110170250350500 -deg^2 - hr mJy Clusters- - 80100 Level 10.04 GOODS-S 23010+301.0 3.34.04.6 Level 20.04 GOODS-N 27102.02.83.06.78.19.2 Level 30.25 GOODS-S 34252.26.26.710.512.714.5 0.25 Groth Strip 34252.26.26.710.512.714.5 0.25 Lockman 34252.26.26.710.512.714.5 Level 42 COSMOS 110506.09.810.521.125.529.1 2 XMM-LSS 11050189.810.521.125.529.1 Level 510 Spitzer 1852001816.918.023.628.532.5 Level 650 Spitzer -15018-120617484 Time : PACS (659) SPIRE (850) Harwit (10) (Spitzer Depths)

32. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Wedding Cake Survey (Depth vs Area) An Herschel Survey of Surveys (SOS) www.mattiavaccari.net/herschel/sos

33. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

34. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Massive Halos N halos = 400 Dz = 0.2 Area = 2 or 7 deg 2.

35. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Main Science Driver : Measure hidden (by dust) energy production in the Universe Need to measure the bolometric dust emission and sample a large area in the L bol - z plane the Wedding Cake Survey Designed to sample the L-z plane and probe L bol density at high redshift Star Formation Rate OT Herschel proposals will push the study to even higher z Set of blank field Imaging Surveys (“Wedding Cake”), covering a range of field sizes and depths

36. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Redshift-Luminosity Space Probed by Herschel This plot shows the luminosity vs redshift space probed in a 5-tier wedding cake survey. Yellow: 0.25 square degrees, 1.7 mJy 5  threshold at 120  m (PACS); red, blue, and magenta: 0.9, 9, and 90 square degrees, with 5  thresholds of 10, 31, and 100 mJy at 250  m (SPIRE). The PACS and first SPIRE surveys would be confusion-limited.

37. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel Luminosity-Redshift Plane Coverage @ 170 micron

38. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Reaching Below the Confusion Limit We will probe below the classical confusion limit with a number of techniques. One of these is to use the gravitational lensing effect of galaxy clusters to separate and magnify background galaxies.

39. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Comparisons with other Models Aim : Take stock of models on the market to minimize uncertainties Occasion : Seb’s SPIRE High-z Modeling Challenge of July 06  In the pipeline already –Franceschini et al. 2008 –Elbaz et al. 2008 –Xu et al. 2008 –Lagache et al. 2004 –Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (A) –Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (E)  Coming along –Rowan-Robinson 2008 –Malkan 2008 –Pearson 2008 Interested? Then drop me a line at mattia@mattiavaccari.netmattia@mattiavaccari.net

40. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Comparisons With Other Models Differences of up to an order of magnitude near the peak

41. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Comparisons With Other Models Differences of up to an order of magnitude near the peak

42. Extragalactic Confusion  Two methods are routinely used to evaluate EG confusion –The “Fluctuations” approach measures rms background fluctuations due to unresolved sources and sets confusion at q (e.g. q=3,4,5) times that level –The “Counts” approach measures source counts and sets confusion where a maximum number of sources per beam (or rather a minimum number of beams per source, e.g. bps=10,30,50) is reached  Values provided by the two mostly depend on what’s happening –fainter than the confusion limit (Fluctuations) –brighter than the confusion limit (Counts)  Roughly speaking, the level of agreement between the two approaches depend on the slope of the counts ~ AT the confusion limit NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

43. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari “Fluctuations” Criterion

44. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari “Counts” Criterion Red lines refer to 10 bps levels

45. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Extragalactic Confusion ChannelPACS1PACS2PACS3SPIRE1SPIRE2SPIRE3 mmmm70110170250350500 Beam FWHM 4.74” 6.96”10.76”17.1”24.4”34.6” 3  [mJy] 0.068030.89796.95818.2623.8622.16 4  [mJy] 0.19622.07312.2027.8934.4931.03 5  [mJy] 0.36913.45417.5237.3844.8339.57 10 bps [mJy] 0.11001.2637.09014.0015.2313.23 20 bps [mJy] 0.30292.74611.8220.4921.6518.31 30 bps [mJy] 0.48874.03415.2325.4026.3421.49 40 bps [mJy] 0.66565.11018.1229.1829.9324.09 50 bps [mJy] 0.83506.10720.4532.4733.0526.18 Due to the different slope in counts, the  vs bps is not a one-to-one relation,  values being generally & consistently worse than bps ones for SPIRE with respect to PACS

46. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari A Pre-Launch Consensus View on Herschel EG Confusion Limits

47. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari A Pre-Launch Consensus View on Herschel EG Confusion Limits MEAN +- RMS of various models 4  values above are arguably best pre-launch indication ( modulo BLAST results )

48. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Simulations : Spitzer 2 Herschel ( keeping an eye on SCUBA(2) )  24  m  110  m  350  m  450  m  850  m

49. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari What Herschel OT Key Project Surveys can we expect (or aim for)? Rich opportunities exist to extend GT KP mid- & large-area planned surveys (~ 1 deg^2 or larger) to deeper levels & wider areas An Herschel Survey of Surveys (SOS) www.mattiavaccari.net/herschel/sos 3 s ~ 10 bps 3 s ~ 10 bps 3  ~ 20 bps 3  ~ 20 bps 10 bps 10 bps 20 bps 20 bps Opp. Area NB : NOT including last-minute changes to GT but still largely valid…

50. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari SHADES - Major SCUBA extra-galactic survey www.roe.ac.uk/ifa/shades The first complete, unbiased, large area, sub-mm survey with all necessary supporting multi-frequency data 0.5 sq. degrees, ~300 sources with S 850 > 8 mJy Complete unbiased redshift information Probing (comoving) scales up to 10 Mpc Mortier et al. 2005 & Coppin et al. 2006 SHADES

51. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 180 shifts needed i.e. 1/3 of UK JCMT time over 3 years 40% complete Slow and Difficult Work!

52. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari What is SCUBA2? Simultaneous imaging at 450 and 850  m A large (>50 arcmin 2 ) field of view Sensitivity governed by the sky background Provide fully-sampled images of the sky in  4 s Novel scanning mode to realize large-area surveys SCUBA-2 will bring “CCD- style” imaging to the sub-mm range for the first time, increasing mapping speed by ~1000 with respect to SCUBA SCUBA2 is a new generation imager for the JCMT ( operated in Hawaii by a UK/NL/CA consortium )

53. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari But SCUBA-2 will have 16 times the field-of-view in one frame! Predicted Sensitivities

54. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Surveys Speeds

55. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Extra-galactic surveys with SCUBA ( & SCUBA2 ) As a result of: Sensitivity and field-of-view of SCUBA High background Resolution limits of a 15-m dish k-correction compression of dynamic range Sub-mm survey wedding cake has been a bit squashed

56. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari SCUBA2 changes only the first of these 4 limitations But, can now heighten and broaden the wedding cake by: Conducting a very-large area survey for rare bright sources Exploiting the largely untapped higher resolution offered by sensitive observations at 450 microns Building around a core “Super-SHADES” survey What’s New With SCUBA2?

57. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari “DEEP 450” 0.6 / 1.5 ( 2 / 5 yr ) deg 2 - S 450 = 2.5 mJy & S 850 = 0.75 mJy “SUPER SHADES” 20 / 50 ( 2 / 5 yr ) deg 2 - S 850 = 3.5 mJy SCUBA2 450  m surveys will be more more sensitive and provide an higher resolution than Herschel, allowing for “deconvolution” of ultradeep confused PACS & SPIRE surveys 5  limits! SCUBA2 Cosmology Legacy Survey 2 yr (09-10) and 5 yr (09-13) plans

58. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari What should we be looking forward to?  By ~ March 2009, i.e. by the time of our next skiing … ehm, ASTRONOMY gathering up here –Herschel will have about finished his 6-month “commissioning” & a workshop will be about to take place showcasing its first results –SCUBA 2 Legacy Surveys will have accumulated 6-12 month worth of data, combining with and complementing Herschel’s  Most of us will still be struggling with ESO proposals’ March 30 deadline (albeit not with Herschel GT ones, on THAT occasion), having been unable to convince the soon- to-start new director general to make an exception!  The speaker will hopefully be packing up his newly bought skis & boots for his long-awaited comeback to the slopes!  Last but not the least, most of the models I showed will OF COURSE have proved spectacularly wrong!

59. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Near-Future Prospects  Herschel & SCUBA2 are coming on-line ~ 1 yr from now  A new decade in becomes available ==> Discovery Space  Bolometric Emission of Galaxies making up the CIRB  Lots of things are already covered in GT & OT KPs BUT  OT proposals are due in ~ late 2008 & 2009 respectively  PS : non-extragalactic astronomers are also encouraged to keep their eyes on http://herschel.esac.esa.int & TBDhttp://herschel.esac.esa.int

60. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Near-Future Prospects  Herschel will be launched ~ 1 yr from now  A new decade in becomes available ==> Discovery Space  Bolometric Emission of Galaxies making up the CIRB  Lots of things are already covered in GT e OT KPs BUT  OT proposals are due in mid-2008  PS : non-extragalactic astronomers are also encouraged to keep their eyes on http://herschel.esac.esa.int & TBDhttp://herschel.esac.esa.int

61. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel AO Schedule (Late 2008 Launch)  Overall (3-yr Baseline Mission) Observing Time Breakdown : ~ 1000 days ~ 20000 hrs GT = 32% & OT = 68% GT = 30% each to 3 PIs, 7% to HSC, 3% divided between 5 Mission Scientists  Commissioning, Performance Verification & Science Demonstration L - L+6m  Routine Science Operations L+6m - L+42 m  GT & OT Key Projects AO Issue 01 Feb 2007  GT Key Projects Proposal Deadline 05 Apr 2007 (~ 5000 hr)  GT Key Projects Results Announcement 05 Jul 2007  OT Key Projects Proposal Deadline 25 Oct 2007 (~ 5500 hr)  OT Key Projects Results Announcement 28 Feb 2008  GT Cycle 1 Projects AO Issue 28 Feb 2008  GT Cycle 1 Projects Proposal Deadline 03 Apr 2008 (~ 1000 hr)  GT Cycle 1 Projects Results Announcement 05 Jun 2008  OT Cycle 1 Projects Deadline Late 2008 (~ 5000 hr)  GT & OT Cycle 2 Projects Deadline Late 2009 (~ 500 hr + 3000 hr)  Extra Time (0.5 yr “expected” extended mission) Later (~ 3000 hr)

62. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari What might be in it for you?  A handy modeling code & simulation tool generating –source counts –redshift & luminosity distributions –mock catalogues at a complete set of relevant FIR & sub-mm wavelengths  A companion tool to estimate confusion limits based on the model above as well as on competing models  A set of simulated surveys reproducing lots of completed & planned surveys by ISO, Spitzer, Herschel, Planck, Akari, SCUBA2 (and soon SPICA & FIRI?), e.g. the Herschel GT Wedding Cake and the SCUBA2 Legacy Surveys  Hopefully sometime soon publicly available through the www

63. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

64. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari FIR & Sub-mm Surveys come of age The Multi- XID Problem  The tens/hundreds of sources which will be detected by Herschel (and SCUBA2, the LMT, the CCAT, the envisaged Antarctic Submillimeter Observatory…) will pose a challenge of new proportions when it comes to identifying them and make sense of their SEDs –Large areas (tens of sq deg) –Imaging in several FIR/sub-mm bands, with different resolutions and sensitivities and sources often individually detected only in some bands. –Inhomogeneous ancillary data –Stacking and positional priors on lower-resolution images will become increasingly important techniques, together with maximum-likelihood identification methods based on average properties of large samples  Pioneering efforts at identifying SCUBA sources through radio imaging by Blain, Chapman, Ivison & friends could only be reproduced over relatively small areas, even with EVLA, but it’ll be interesting to see what can take its place for the larger areas  Shallow Spitzer MIPS 24 micron imaging seems e.g. to be only slightly worse than extant VLA radio data for this purpose (see e.g. Ivison et al 2007 and Clements, Vaccari et al. in prep for SCUBA sources in SHADES/SXDF), but introduces further selection effects and won’t be available in the near future (and to a limited extent with JWST)

65. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Confusion at MIR-to-Sub-mm s SWIRE 50  2 HERMES 70  2 SCLS 20/50  2 ? LMT ?

66. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari What about the LMT?  As the FIR & Sub-mm opens up with Herschel & SCUBA2, familiar issues such as difficulties in multi-wavelength identification work and the lack of reliable redshifts will resurface  The LMT will not only provide a deep and detailed (i.e. with similar angular resolution) view of the mm universe as of the FIR & sub-mm, but also arguably the only direct means to break the “redshift deadlock”

67. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari LMT ExtraGalactic Surveys  The LMT instrumentation suite has the potential to contribute substantially to the two recurrent themes of sub-mm astronomy 1.Push the detection flux limits to lower levels and filling gaps in SEDs 2.Determining the redshift distribution of complete sub-mm-selected galaxy samples, often heavily obscured and difficult to identify in the optical/NIR  It can do so by 1.Exploiting AZTEC mapping speed to provide a mm counterpart to ongoing/upcoming FIR/sub-mm surveys 2.Using the RSR to target complete samples of SCUBA sources, thus having an immediate science impact, building credibility for the LMT and paving the way to future redshift surveys of Herschel/SCUBA2/AZTEC samples  This tempting approach would follow a well-paved road, i.e. target time- honored “cosmic windows”. While this is generally sensible, occasionally it might NOT be the best way to use huge chunks of telescope time.  AZTEC Mapping Speed –Adopting 0.3 deg 2 /hr/mJy 2 (1  ) –~ 80 hr for 1 deg 2 at 1 mJy (5  ) –~ 2000 hr for 1 deg 2 at 0.2 mJy (5  )  RSR Speed –Time to detect lines in a 2/5/10 (or fainter) mJy SCUBA/AZTEC source?

68. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 30-m LMT Confusion Limits 3  [ mJy] 1100  m - 0.210 2100  m - 0.096 3000  m - 0.048

69. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 30-m LMT Confusion Limits 1100  m 3  - 0.213 mJy 4  - 0.475 mJy 5  - 0.773 mJy

70. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 30-m LMT Confusion Limits 2100  m 3  - 0.096 mJy 4  - 0.155 mJy 5  - 0.213 mJy

71. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 30-m LMT Confusion Limits 3000  m 3  - 0.048 mJy 4  - 0.071 mJy 5  - 0.094 mJy

72. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 1.1 mm Differential Counts 1100  m

73. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 1.1 mm Integral Counts 1100  m

74. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 1.1. mm CIRB Resolution 1100  m

75. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 3 mm Differential Counts 3000  m

76. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 3 mm Integral Counts 3000  m

77. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari 3 mm CIRB Resolution 3000  m

78. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari An LMT AZTEC EG Wedding Cake  For illustrative purposes, ideas for a science case can be developed around a two-tier wedding cake –A very deep integration over a small field (à la GOODS) –A 10-time shallower integration over a 100-time larger area (à la SWIRE)  A 1000 hour spent on each of these tiers would e.g. yield –0.125 deg 2 = 450 arcmin 2 at 0.1 mJy (5  ) –0.5 deg 2 at 0.2 mJy (5  ) –5.0 deg 2 at 0.6 mJy (5  ) –50.0 deg 2 at 2.0 mJy (5  )  Source density is ~ 40/20/10/2 ksrc/deg 2 at 0.1/0.2/0.6/2.0 mJy

79. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Designing LMT Surveys  Both the spectroscopic and the imaging part of a substantial LMT EG “legacy” survey needs careful planning and coordination with other projects  For all their uncertainties, survey mock catalogues are required to optimize observing strategy (and determine where LMT could provide a truly unique contribution) including –Source Counts to determine the total number of expected sources and test source extraction strategy –Redshift Distributions, to determine the areas/depths required to properly sample the luminosity function in redshift bins of a given size –Full SED Info of detected sources, to investigate opportunities for multi- wavelength identification of mm-detected samples (e.g. Radio vs MIR see SHADES/SWIRE) and plan for further ancillary observations to be obtained  What about cracking some more numbers in the afternoon?

80. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Thanks! “Don't clap too loudly - it's a very old world” Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead Mattia Vaccari mattia@mattiavaccari.net www.mattiavaccari.net

81. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Thanks! “Don't clap too loudly - it's a very old world” Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead Mattia Vaccari mattia@mattiavaccari.net www.mattiavaccari.net

82. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari More…

83. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Spitzer Confusion Limits CH3  4  5  10 bps 20 bps 30 bps 40 bps 50 bps 24 70 160

84. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari SCUBA(2) Confusion Limits CH3  4  5  10 bps 20 bps 30 bps 40 bps 50 bps 4502.03.85.8 8501.62.73.8

85. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari ISO (1995-1998) 60 cm IRAS (1983) 57 cm Spitzer (2003-2008) 85 cm COBE (1989-1993) 19 cm Akari (2006-2007) 67 cm Herschel (2008-2012) 3.5 m Surveyors Observatories WMAP (200?-200?) ?? cmPlanck (2008-201?) 1.5? m

86. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari APEX 12 m CSO 10 m IRAM 30 m JCMT 15 m LMT 50 m

87. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari FIRI Another Single dish short-sub-mm optimized telescope? LMT WISESPICA

88. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007 A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Some Herschel Slides

89. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel Trivia The Herschel Space Observatory will be launched, with Planck Surveyor, on an Ariane-5 from Kourou’s Guyana Space Center in 2008. Approximately four months after launch Herschel will arrive at the Sun- Earth L2 point and proceed in a Lissajous orbit around L2 where science operations will begin. Planck Surveyor will also, independently, travel to and orbit around L2 but in a different orbit than Herschel. L2 will provide low background levels for the science instruments. It is anticipated that approximately 22 hours per day will be dedicated to scientific operations with the other 2 hours for communications and data transfer with Earth. Approximately 6900 hours of time per year is anticipated to be allocated to science observations. Science operations, expected to last three years, will be supported from a handful of facilities: a Herschel Science Center (HSC), a Mission Operation Center (MOC), an Instrument Control Center (ICC) for each of the three science instruments, and for U.S. observers, a NASA Herschel Science Center (NHSC). Observation planning and proposal submission for Herschel will be done using HSpot, a Java software package based on the Spitzer Space Telescope software Spot, and, like Spitzer, observations wil be specified using Astronomical Observation Templates (AOTs). It is anticipated that HSpot will be released to the astronomical community when the Key Project AO is issued. Overall (3-yr Baseline Mission) Observing Time Breakdown : ~ 1000 days ~ 20000 hrs GT = 32% OT = 68% GT = 30% each to 3 PIs, 7% to HSC, 3% divided between 5 Mission Scientists

90. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel Trivia The Key Project Announcement of Opportunity (AO) is expected to be released in February 2007. There will be both GT and Open Time components of this AO, with GT proposals due in April 2007 and Open Time proposals due in Oct 2007, though this schedule is tentative and subject to change (e.g. because of launch delays). It is expected that the Key Projects will be large spatial or spectral surveys and will be executed early in the science mission. The Key Projects will be selected and in place before the Cycle 1 Call for GT observers is issued (prior to or approximately at the time of launch). Open Time opportunities, except for Key Projects, will occur AFTER launch.

91. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel Trivia PACS Key Projects: Extragalactic - surveys to the confusion limit of popular fields (GOODS, CDFS, Lockman Hole, COSMOS), clusters and lensing clusters, SEDs of high-z objects, and BAL QSOs, ISM in low metallicity galaxies and star formation in IR bright galaxies. Galactic - census from prestellar regions to proto-stars to proto-brown dwarfs, AGB stars, post-AGB and PN, and circumstellar envelopes. SPIRE Key Projects: Extragalactic surveys coordinated w/PACS (see above) with follow-up spectroscopy, low metallicity dwarf galaxies, ISM in local galaxies. Galactic - nearby molecular clouds, prestellar cores, high-mass star formation, interstellar dust, debris disk evolution, post-AGB and other evolved stars (SNe) dust production. HIFI Key Projects: Extragalactic - ISM in galactic nuclei and low-metallicity environments Galactic - AGS envelopes, PPNe, PNe, the warm ISM, star formation regions such as Orion and Sgr B2. Solar System - Water and chemical studies. In addition there are a few known Open Time Key Projects being planned. They are: Extra-Hot - An open consortium of investigators, focussing on extragalactic science, pooling resources during all phases of the Open Time program, from proposal planning to reducing the data. Their website is: http://astronomy.sussex.ac.uk/~sjo/extrahot/ Hi-Gal - A survey of the Galactic Plane using PACS and SPIRE, coordinated by Sergio Molinari. Their website is: http://herschel.ifsi-roma.inaf.it/Hi-GAL/index.htm

92. NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari Herschel Extragalactic GT Survey Wedding Cake NameAreaField PACS Time SPIRE Time 70110170250350500 -deg^2 - hr mJy Clusters- - 80100 Level 10.04 GOODS-S 23010+301.0 3.34.04.6 Level 20.04 GOODS-N 27102.02.83.06.78.19.2 Level 30.25 GOODS-S 34252.26.26.710.512.714.5 0.25 Groth Strip 34252.26.26.710.512.714.5 0.25 Lockman 34252.26.26.710.512.714.5 Level 42 COSMOS 110506.09.810.521.125.529.1 2 XMM-LSS 11050189.810.521.125.529.1 Level 510 Spitzer 1852001816.918.023.628.532.5 Level 650 Spitzer -15018-120617484 Time : PACS (659) SPIRE (850) Harwit (10) (Spitzer Depths)