1. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 Goods4Cast: customer demand forecasting system

2. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 2 Clients of the company

3. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 3 CNews AWARDS 2007 и 2008  One of three best projects of 2007 in Russian in nomination “Finance management” (credit scoring system).  Best IT-project of 2008 in Russia in nomination “Commerce modernization” (customer demand and stock management system for the network of mobile stores “Svyaznoy”).

4. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 4 Goods4Cast: customer demand forecasting  High precision of demand forecasting  World-scale achievements in computing mathematics and data analysis  Full / partial automation of the forecasting process  Taking risks into account

5. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 5 Goods4Cast: customer demand forecasting  Forecasting demand for each article (SKU) in each store (and warehouse)  Selection of the most suitable algorithm for each article  Use of special methodology for new articles and stores  Permanent control of forecasting accuracy  Self-training of the system

6. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 6 Factors that can be taken into account  Trends  Annual, monthly and weekly seasonal prevalence  Seasonal prevalence of holidays and weekends  Temporal absence of an article  Mutual influence of sales of different articles  Life cycle of an article  Price dynamic (own and competitors)  Limitations of production, logistics and sales  Other factors

7. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 7 Annual seasonal prevalence

8. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 8 Weekly seasonal prevalence

9. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 9 Influence of holidays upon demand

10. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 10 Deficit or absence of an article

11. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 11 Influence of appearance of a new article

12. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 12 Influence of prices upon demand

13. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 13 Influence of promotional action upon demand

14. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 14 Accuracy of forecasts

15. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 15 The effect if Goods4Cast is used  Decrease of deficit occurrence  Increase of goods turnover  Increase of customers loyalty due to constant presence on offer of priority articles  Decrease of working hours and influence of human factor while forecasting  Substantial economy of expenses on delivery planning if the chain grows  Decrease of expenditures

16. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 16 Example of application in “Perekryostok”  Aims  Decrease of articles deficit while maintaining the level of goods stock  Minimization of human factor’s influence while making orders  Tasks  Daily automatic computation of customer demand for the intervals from a day to a year  Daily automatic creation of orders to stores  Source data  140 stores  50 000 articles of active assortment  3 years of historical sales

17. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 17 Example of application in “Perekryostok”  Integration  Microsoft Axapta  Data storage, Oracle DB  Results  Decrease of funds blocked in goods stock by 2%  Decrease of deficit by 36%  Financial effect  Additional profit of 0.5% - 3% from gain

18. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 18 Example of application in “Svyaznoy”  Aims  Decrease of goods stock while maintaining availability of articles for customers  Tasks  Daily automatic computation of customer demand for the intervals from a day to a year  Daily automatic creation of orders to stores

19. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 19 Example of application in “Svyaznoy”  Source data  1 70 0 stores  15 000 articles of active assortment  2 years of historical sales  Results  Decrease of articles deficit by 17%  Increase of goods turnover by 20%

20. Copyright © ЗАО «Форексис» 2007 © Forecsys, 2002-2009 20 Thank you