1. Will meteorites hit : CATHY JONES Secondary Math Instruction Specialist Center for Mathematics and Science Education Arkansas NASA Education Resource Center 346 N. West Avenue, Room 202 Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701 (479) 575-3875 (479) 575-5680 (FAX) e-mail: cej001@uark.edu http://www.uark.edu/~k12 info/ Presented by:

2. Meteoroids that experience disruption in the atmosphere may fall as meteorite showers, which can range from only a few up to thousands of separate individuals. The area over which a meteorite shower falls is known as its strewn field. Meteorite Showers…..

3. Meteorite Hunter finds alien roc... Meteorite showers may contain large numbers of individual meteorites. more than 100,000 fell at Pułtusk, Pol. in 1868 possibly 14,000 fell at Holbrook, Ariz., U.S. in 1912 thousands fell at Chihuahua, Mex., in 1969 2,000–3,000 fell at L’Aigle, France, in 1803 200–300 fell at Stannern, Moravia (now Stonařov, Cz.Rep.), in 1808.

4. 4 YOUR city lies on the edge of the predicted strewn field for the meteorite shower. What is the probability that meteorites will fall on YOUR city? “You’re more likely to get struck by lightning, than die in a plane crash.” “Certain diets may result in higher likelihood of heart disease.” “Win the lottery? It’s one in a million.” “The forecast was 30% chance of rain.”

5. 5 Red hot meteorites Simulation! Will meteorites hit

6. 6 Simulation A technique used for answering real-world questions or making decisions in complex situations where an element of chance is involved. Van deWalle, Elementary and Middle School Mathematics Teaching Developmentally, Pearson, 5 th ed., p. 411.

7. 7 1.Identify key components and assumptions of the problem. 2.Select a random device for the key components. 3.Define a trial. 4.Conduct a large number of trials, and record the information. 5.Use the data to draw conclusions. Van de Walle p 412 Simulations A series of steps

8. 8 Directions: Each group should have a small cup of red hots and a pizza box with a quarter circle drawn in it. Red Hot Meteorites Simulation You will drop the red hots from above the box. Count and record how many fall inside the curve, outside the curve, and the total in the trial. Continue until time is called. Record the results on chart paper and then find the total of all your trials and report what fractional part of the red hots landed inside the curved area.

9. 9 Turn calculators on. Clear. Connect linking cords. Press 2 nd X which is LINK enter RECEIVER: Arrow to RECEIVE, enter SENDER: 3(Prgm)…Select REDHOTS…arrow to TRANSMIT…enter Download the REDHOT program Predict and Drop

10. 10 Turn the calculator on. Clear. Press Clear all PLOTs at the top of the screen Clear any equations, insert the following equation: (Why this equation?) Predict and Drop This is a circle with radius of 1 unit. Note: Equation of a circle (x-h) 2 + (y-k) 2 = r 2

11. 11 X min = 0 X max = 1 X scl = 1 Y min = 0 Y max = 1 Y scl = 1 Press GRAPH…Is this picture correct? Press ZOOM, 5(Z Square) Is this picture correct? Press PRGM, select REDHOT, enter Type in Number of redhots, enter. What quadrant do we need?quadrant 1 We must set the WINDOW!

12. 12 P(meteorites in strewn field) = area of ¼ of a circle ÷ total area of box 1/4 r² ÷ r 2 or approximately 0.785 Probability for hitting YOUR city = 1- 0.785 How do you determine probability? Probability(event)=successful trials divided by total possible In this case the Theoretical probability of the predicted strewn field = area under the curve divided by the total possible area

13. 13 Sampling is an estimated procedure, and it must be repeated several times in order to find the best estimate. The larger the sampling size or number of trials, the closer it will approach the Theoretical Probabilities.

14. 14 Technology Where does it fit in the Data Analysis and Probability Standards? Van De Walle p. 412 “Technology Note” 1.Using hands-on devices to explore probability takes a lot of time to produce a large number of trials. 2.Students are more likely to believe the random outcomes of electronic devices such as calculators and computer software over those they get from hands-on random devices such as spinners, dice, or cubes drawn from a bag. AGREE OR DISAGREE -