1. Implementing conservation and adaptive learning in times of environmental uncertainty Restoring Shrublands for Priority Species Nancy Pau, Kate O’Brien, Stephanie Koch, Suzanne Paton, Dorie Stolley

2. Increasing Priority of Shrub habitat Shrub- dependent birds showing some of the highest population decline in the Northeast Mature forest breeders prefer early to mid successional forests during post fledgling period (Vitz and Rodewald 2006) Neotropical migrants shift to early successional habitat in fall (Rodewald and Brittingham 2004) New England cottontail became candidate species in 2006

3. Management Uncertainties What site characteristic best predict successful shrub restoration? What combination of treatment options best achieve management objectives? Once native shrubs are established, what’s is needed to maintain the habitat? Is native shrub restoration feasible and practical? How bad are invasives plants to resources of concern? www.sustainablepractice.org

4. 8. Update likelihoods, model weights, utilities (steps 4-5) each time step; evaluate which models & treatments are ‘winning’ 7. Implement & monitor; Summarize monitoring metrics to determine outcomes each time step 2. Define objectives; translate to (independent) monitoring metrics; define outcomes (what is success?) 5. Attribute likelihoods to all possible outcomes for each model: N=Models*Trtmt*Metric*Outcome; Calculate expected utilities for trmts 1.Clarify problem 3. Develop treatment options; attribute values to all possible outcomes N=Trmt*Metric*Outcome 4. Define competing models that capture uncertainty; assign weights Adaptive Management: a process for dealing with uncertainty 6. Allocate treatments to multiple management units; reallocate each time step

5. Clarifying the Problem Three Resource Targets © Jim Sonia Two Treatment Schemes or Competing Models Two Management Scenarios

6. ObjectivesSub-objectives Monitoring Parameters Quality habitat Bird Use Provide native shrub habitat for fall migrating birds Provide native shrub Habitat for a sustainable pop of New England cottontail Preserve biological diversity and ecological integrity Weight gain of birds migrating through Berry biomass and Availability through migration Structure, Cover Bird use through migration (target species/abundance/ richness) How birds use the sites (prey, host species, time budget) Clarifying the Objectives:

7. + - - + - + + - Matrices High Intensity Low better NEC P/A Low better NEC P/A High better NEC P/A High better NEC P/A Low Intensity Decision Utility 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 Probability 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6 Monitoring data Defining Competing Models E(U) = 0.622 E(U)=0.424

8. Grass to ShrubsEnhance Existing Shrubs Low Intensity High Intensity Low Intensity High Intensity Parker Riverxx Great Meadowsxx Rachel Carsonxx Rhode Islandxx Allocate Treatments Schemes

9. Monitor, Implement, Monitor

10. Updating the Model Field Low Shrub Low Model Weights LowMedium Initial0.5 Next time step0.930.07

11. 8. Update probability, weights, utilities (evaluate which models is ‘winning’ 7. Implement & monitor; Summarize monitoring metrics to determine outcomes each time step 2. Define objectives; monitoring metrics 5. Attribute probability and utility 1.Clarify problem 3. Develop treatment options 4. Define competing models that capture uncertainty; assign weights Project Timeline 6. Allocate treatments to multiple management units; reallocate each time step Aug 2007 Jan 2008 Feb - Aug 2008 14 meetings Fall 2008 Jan 2009 to Jan 2011 28 meetings in 3 years! Developed protocols

12. Lessons Learned: Model as a tool to help us think through the process –Good modeler who understands habitat management is key to success A comprehensive framework for working with complicated issues with a lot of uncertainty= helps managers break down their problems and identify what’s driving the response. Developed a better project when would have otherwise; really understand the ecosystem processes and relationships Financial and Technical support need to be flexible Extremely labor intensive; managers and biologists need to play key role in entire process Process can be frustrating (Iterative). Definitely helpful to take Modeling and SDM course at NCTC.

13. Products to Date: Monitoring protocols –Vegetation (point intercept, line intercept, robel pole) SOP –Berry production (Adam Smith) –Tiered bird surveys during migration (CJ Ralph, Klamath Bird Observatory) Draft excel model Draft Access database Ecological Integrity Index (NatureServe) Deliverables Future Products: Effectivness of Treatment techniques Various herbicide applications Supplemental planting Prescribed burning BMPs for various site conditions (start of Expert System) ©Glen Tepke

14. Contact: nancy_pau@fws.gov, Parker River NWR ©Jim Fenton