1. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org SSPP Topic Group Mainstream Pupil Number Forecasting System Kate Ma Planning Officer, School Places Team

2. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Outline Programme Overview of Forecasting System Objective & Purpose Methodology Producing Pupil Forecasts Analysis Demonstration

3. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Overview of the Forecasting System Introduced in 2003 Software system - Oracle database User web interface Methodology based on Audit Commission’s recommendations for pupil forecasting Produces annual pupil forecasts Forecast modelling

4. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Objectives & Purpose of Forecasting To project pupil numbers at planning area level to inform school place planning activity, e.g. - As a tool to identify areas of rising surplus places - Setting published admission numbers - Reporting to DfES on projected pupil numbers, HCC wide

5. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Forecast Methodology Forecasts are based on 22 education planning areas (secondary) These are sub divided into primary planning areas Updated data sets are imported into the forecasting system in April each year From these data sets, the annual pupil forecasts are produced

6. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Annual Data Imports Actual Pupil Numbers (PLASC) - Unique pupil number, year group, their school now and last year. GP Registrations (Health Authority) - Postcodes and dates of birth New Housing Completions Predictions (Environment Department Database) Postcode file School data

7. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Simplified flow chart of the forecasting process 7 Data from external Source Data Created in Software Complete Forecast PRIMARY uses GP Data. January Pupil Count. To Predict future Reception Classes Create Area Forecasts And split down to Schools Compare this year's Actuals with previous years Forecast Produce Forecast Report Produce Variance Report Used to improve forecast accuracy To Predict New Pupils New Housing Completions SECONDARY Previous Movement Patterns To Predict future Admission Classes

8. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Data set samples – Pupil Data

9. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Data sets – Housing Development Description

10. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Data sets – Housing Development House Type

11. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Data sets – Housing Development Completion Forecast

12. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Housing Developments Source: Environment Department Contains all new developments from Local Plan allocations through to planning permissions Identified by number of bedrooms and geographical location

13. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org New Housing Pupil Yield No of Bedrooms No of Primary per 1000 No of Secondary per 1000 Unknown/0Bed251130 1Bed10 2Bed6134 3Bed245124 4Bed348167 5+Bed542291

14. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org 2006/7 Pupil Forecasts 2006/7 Pupil Forecast - Secondary & Primary - Used to inform the planning process at planning area level Make-Up of 2006/7 Forecast - Secondary & Primary - Admissions/Births/Surviving Cohorts/Pupils from new housing

15. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Analysis of projections prior to publication Variance Analysis – by area – under/over estimations Correlation between current cohort and future projections Analysis of 0 – 4 year old data Local Intelligence

16. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Forecasting System Demonstration

17. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org Harpenden Secondary population trends

18. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org 2006/7 Harpenden Yr 7 Forecasts

19. Hertfordshire County Council www.hertsdirect.org 2006/7 Forecast Reception Trends - Harpenden