USAF Remotely Piloted Aircraft Future:

USAF Remotely Piloted Aircraft Future: 2013-2047
Lt Gen Dave Deptula, USAF (Ret) Former Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (some updates Sep 2015)

Agenda Remotely Piloted Aircraft Demand and Challenges AF RPA Future
Domains & Environments… Implications & Perceptions

MQ-1/MQ-9 CAP ~168 Total Personnel
Updated Leadership Admin & Overhead GCS PPSL GDT MX Pilots Sensors Msn Coord Pilots GCS Processing, Exploitation, Dissemination (PED) Sensors Mission Control Launch & Recovery Processing Exploitation Dissemination (PED) Aircraft 4 Personnel 43 59 66 Pilots 7 † 3 FMV Crew 24‡ Sensors SIGINT 20 Maintenance 8 53 22 Msn Coordinator 5 Leadership 2 Admin/Overhead 14 Other Equip 1 Ground Station Satellite Link Data Terminal MX MX FMV SIGINT * Additional CAPs co-located require ~80% less MX, ops/PED personnel remain the same † Surge numbers, steady state = 10 each ‡ Does not include backshop Personnel Unclassified

Insatiable demand with no defined end state
Growth in Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) Updated Growth in RPA Combat Air Patrols 2004 = 5 2005 = 8 2006 = 11 2007 = 18 2008 = 33 2009 = 39 2011 = 60 2012 = 57 2013 = 62 2014 = 65 +1300% Increase in 11 years… Insatiable demand with no defined end state 4 4

MQ-1/MQ-9 History of Surges
Added RPA Normalization Delayed Extended Assignment Freeze thru FY11 7 CAPs pulled 18 months Forward 17RS Increased CAPs Increased FTU training #s Stand up MQ-9 FTU in NM, UAS WIC and CA ANG FTU Assignment Freeze Cont’d Reduced aircrew CAP ratios Reconstitution The Air Force has been in a “surge” mode with our remotely piloted aircraft now for over seven years… Per the 2006 QDR the official DOD program of record for the MQ-1 Predator was 21 combat air patrols by 2010… In 2007 the “demand signal” from the Combatant Commanders increased far in excess of that benchmark. We responded by rapidly adding capability well beyond that DOD 21 CAP goal…until we got to the 65 CAP mark (that goal has held steady for 3 years) -- OSD granted a short 18 month “reconstitution period” (a reduction in CAPs) in 2012 to rightsize and fix the health of the RPA community (including the goal of fixing the FTU manning), with the intent to get back on the 65 CAP plan (w/ better manning, morale, and QoL for the long term of the community). -- Sequestration hit during 2014, and ACC used the lack of $$ to propose a 45 CAP plan (30% reduction in size of community), which was later changed to 55 CAPs due to COCOM demand for long endurance, strike capable ISR. -- The reopening of Iraq/Syria and ISIS, w/ other global taskings continues to fund the enterprise at 65 CAPs w/ constant RFIs RE: more. Delay RPA Weapons School Recall Qualified Supervisors Ops Support Contractors 2d yr ARC Mobilization Cont. assignment freeze 179 to 365 day TDYs Assignment Freeze Additional Mobilization Crew Recall Mobilized ANG Curtailed Test Extended Tours 10 Surge Actions since 2007

Attributes of Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA)
Persistence - ability to loiter over a target for long time periods for ISR and/or opportunity to strike enemy target Undetected penetration / operation Operations in dangerous environments Can be operated remotely, so fewer personnel in combat zones ― projects power without projecting vulnerability Integrates “find, fix, finish” sensor and shooter capabilities on one platform

Need to Avoid Drowning in Data…
21st Century Challenges: Dealing With Data Growth Sensor technology rapidly expanding ISR capacity Analysis and exploitation tools need to keep pace with sensor development and deployment Now there is a “flip-side” to all these efforts to deliver more ISR...one that goes well beyond the Air Force We’re fielding more and more sensors – collecting more and more data – and having to respond to an ever increasing demand for ISR – all at a pace and volume that’s unparalleled… In the not too distant future we’ll be swimming in sensors and so we need to insure we don’t end up drowning in data… Accordingly, we’ll need to apply the same level of effort to the processing and exploitation of data as we have to collecting it… Swimming in Sensors… Need to Avoid Drowning in Data…

Wide Area Airborne Surveillance (WAAS)
Increment 2 Gorgon Stare Updated (minor changes) Increment 1 Gorgon Stare FMV MQ-9 Wide area coverage area 10-12 independent ROVER queries and potentially chip outs through the GORGON STARE ground station MQ-9 Better area overage and resolution 10-12 independent ROVER queries and potentially chip outs through the GORGON STARE ground station MQ-1 Observe single target Single ROVER / OSRVT

Why “CAPs” Should Not be Used as a Measure of ISR Sufficiency
Requires Update to 2015 Note: Inc 2 fielded in 14’ Motion Imagery Spots Increment 2 GORGON STARE Increment 1 GORGON STARE 34 CAPs 39 CAPs 49 CAPs 50 CAPs 62 CAPs 65 CAPs

How to Get the Most ISR Soonest:
Focus on “Output” Instead of “Input” Requires Update to 2015 WAAS Program Of record WAAS Program Of record Motion Imagery Spots WAAS QRC 2 WAAS QRC 1 36 CAPs 44 CAPs 59 CAPs 50/62 CAPs 50/65 CAPs 50/65 CAPs 50/65 CAPs 50/65 CAPs

Air Force RPA Vision: Tenets of RPA Evolution
RPA compelling where the human is a limitation to mission success Seamless manned and unmanned systems integration Automation is key “Integrated Systems” approach Modularity = Flexibility Robust, agile, redundant C2 enables supervisory control (“man on the loop”) Solutions are linked and must be synchronized Survivable in contested airspace

Perspectives on RPA Pilots
Updated RPA are not ubiquitous—the Army RPA force is significantly different from the AF: don’t fall into the trap of equating the two... The AF already has enlisted operators flying UAS’s —the same category that makes up over 99% of what the Army operates—small UAVs AF needs to fully explore alternatives to operate RPA to meet: increased RPA demand; rated management challenges; and appropriate levels of responsibility—however, this must be accomplished with a view to the future not the past FAA, ICAO, and DOD, regulatory and safety requirements same for RPA as manned aircraft Level of responsibility should dictate level of qualification in combat USAF Med/Lg RPA: 312 Army Med UAS: 92 USA 23% USAF 77% Small UAS: 7910 Medium UAS: 92 Army RPA operation should be commensurate with the capabilities of the particular system; the level of responsibility involved; and the implications of that particular systems’ employment.

Service Distinctions Air Force: blue/left Army: green/right
Weapons Used in Combat to Date 922 Hellfire, 213 GBU-12 (105 lb) (500 lb) 4 Viper Strike, 13 Hellfire (55 lb) (105 lb) * UAS strike capable – not primary msn *30 Hellfire shot in test Requires Update to 2015 Will require more time. Composition of Inventory Updated CAO: 28 Jul 10 Small RPA: 244 Med/Large RPA: 312 AF Med/Lg RPA: 312 Army Med/Lg RPA: 92 Small RPA: 7910 Medium RPA: 92 Hunter: PUMA: 969 Warrior A: 9 Grey Eagle 83 Predator: 134 Reaper: 178 Global Hawk: 23 Raven: 6525 Shadow: 416 Wasp/Raven/Puma: 244

AF RPA Enterprise: Remote Split Operations Global Operations
Updated Anderson AFB RQ-4 Grand Forks AFB RQ-4 Osan AB DGS 3 ND ANG Hector IAP MQ-1 NY ANG Syracuse MQ-9 Ellsworth AFB MQ-9 Differs from Army CONOP. OH ANG Springfield MQ-1 Beale AFB RQ-4 DGS 2 PA ANG Horsham MQ-9 Whiteman AFB MQ-1 TN ANG Nashville IAP MQ-9 Langley AFB DGS 1 Creech AFB MQ-1 MQ-9 AFSOC Cannon AFB MQ-1 MQ-9 CA ANG March ARB MQ-9 AZ ANG Davis-Monthan AFB MQ-1 Ramstein AB DGS 4 Holloman AFB (FTU) MQ-1 MQ-9 Hickam AFB DGS 5 TX ANG Ellington Field MQ-1 AFSOC (AFR) MQ-9 Hurlburt Field RQ-4 Global Hawk Feeds to DGS MQ-9 Reaper United States C2 distribution NAS Sigonella RQ-4 MQ-1 Predator Global C2 distribution Optimizing Combat Capability with Reduced Footprint in Harm’s Way

Power of the Network RC-E RC-W/S/SW RC-C RC-N Partner NAFs Active Duty DCGS Sites ARC/ANG Partners Distributed Sites Active Duty DCGS:US/Combined Ops DGS-2 Beale AFB DGS-4 Ramstein AB DGS-5 Hickam AFB DGS LNOs Combined Air Ops Center AFSOC DGS 12 AF DGS-1 Langley AFB NV UT KS IN AR MA AL DGS-3 Osan AB Updated Depicted here is how the DCGS network, manned and equipped by our Total Force…Active, Guard and Reserve units…enables prosecution of the data collected by our some of our ISR platforms operating in today’s fight… Notes: (This is a build slide) 1st click: DGS 1, 4, 5 = Operations in Iraq 2nd click: DGS 1, 2, 5 = Operations in AFG --DGS 1: Focuses on RC-E, RC-N and RC-C (Central-which is Kabul) --DGS 2: Focuses on RC-W and RC-S EXPED Inherent flexibility to rapidly focus local & global ISR capabilities to meet theater and national priority requirements

AF RPA Flight Plan: Vision for an unmanned future
An Air Force with… Remotely piloted aircraft fully integrated across the full range of operations Automated control and modular “plug-and-play” payloads Joint RPA solutions and teaming An informed industry and academia – knowing where we are going and what technologies to invest in…. Capabilities-based Air Force RPA vision thru 2047: Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities

Counterair, Missile Defense
AF RPA Flight Plan: Mission sets for RPA FY FY47 Today Current Capability Shortfalls EA GAP Indoor recon, indoor lethal/non-lethal, indoor comm, cyber attack, Swarming NANO/MICRO Nano WASP III Personal ISR, Lethal, SIGINT, Cyber/EW, Counter RPA, Auto-sentry Family of Transformers Raven Small ISR, Comm Relay, Lethal/Non-lethal, Cyber/EW, SEAD, SIGINT, Low Altitude Pseudo-Sats NextGen – Multi-Mission ISR, Comm Relay, Lethal, SIGINT Scan Eagle Tier II STUAS Close-in ISR, Lethal, SIGINT/DF Air-Launched SUAS Fighter Recap MQ-9 MQ-1B Medium “fighter size” EA/ISR/CAS SEAD/AAR-T Counterair, Missile Defense MQ-Ma MQ-Mb MQ-Mc Large Aircraft Recap EO/IR/SAR MP-RTIP RQ-4 Blk 10/20 RQ-4 Blk 40 Large “tanker size” RQ-4 Blk 30 RJ/E-X C/KC-X NGLRS +ASIP MQ-La MQ-Lb MQ-Lc Interoperable RPA C2 High Altitude Long Endurance Special RPA ISR/EA Low Observable Hypersonic

AF RPA Flight Plan: Small “Family of Systems”
Bio-Mechanicals - Indoor Reconnaissance - Indoor Lethal/Non-lethal - Indoor Comm - Cyber attack - Swarming Bio-Mechanicals - Indoor Reconnaissance - Indoor Lethal - Indoor Comm - Cyber attack Nano Navigate / communicate inside buildings Nano “SUAS Family of Transformers” - Personal ISR - Lethal - SIGINT - Cyber/EW - Counter-UAV - AutoSentries Micro Close-in reconnaissance & situational awareness Wasp III Lite Machine’s Conceptual SUAS Man-portable - ISR - Time-Sensitive - Lethal Irregular Warfare Family of Expendables - Close-In ISR - Expendable Jammers - Lethal - Counter Air - Precision Clandestine Resupply - Cyber attack Raven B Artist Conception Future AL-SUAS Increasing across all mission sets Switchblade SUAS Technical Demonstration Air-Launched - Close-in ISR - Lethal - SIGINT/DF Anti-Access Support Voyeur SUAS Technical Demonstration Next Gen Multi-Mission - ISR - Communications Relay - Lethal / Non-lethal - Electronic/Cyber Attack/SEAD - SIGINT/Low Altitude Pseudo-Sats New Mission areas Finder SUAS Multi-Mission - ISR - Force protection - FID Tier II Joint - ISR - Comm Relay - Lethal - SIGINT Scan Eagle GT Aero Conceptual Bandit SUAS Now Future 18

- Collection – SIGINT/FMV - Collection – SIGINT/FMV
AF RPA Flight Plan: Medium Systems AAR-R&T Dissemination Specialized ISR CAS Collection EW/ISR Comm Relay SEAD Air Interdiction Counter Air CSAR Strategic Attack Modular Payloads Missile Defense Specialized ISR Collection Dissemination ISR Comm Relay EW AAR-R Modular Payloads CAS MQ-1 - Collection – SIGINT/FMV CAS MQ-Xa MQ-Xb MQ-9 - Collection – SIGINT/FMV CAS MQ-9 Collection SIGINT/FMV Wide Area Airborne ISR SAR/GMTI CAS MQ-Xc Specialized ISR Collection Dissemination ISR Comm Relay EW CAS AAR-T SEAD Air Interdiction Aeromedical Evacuation Personnel Recovery Modular Payloads Now Future

AF RPA Flight Plan: Large Systems
Ground Moving Target Indicator Information Integration ISR Airborne Moving Target Indicator EW Airlift Command and Control AAR-R & T Humanitarian Assistance Strategic Attack Global Strike CAS Air Mobility Modular Payloads MQ-Lc RQ-4 (Blk 20/30/40) Collection: Block 20 Enh SAR Enh EO/IR BACN Block 30 Adv SIGINT Block 40 MP-RTIP Radar GMTI and concurrent SAR High Range Resolution No EO/IR or SIGINT RQ-4 (Blk10) Collection – ISR Basic SAR Basic EO/IR MQ-Lb Ground Moving Target Indicator Information Integration ISR Airborne Moving Target Indicator EW Humanitarian Assistance Command and Control AAR-R & T Airlift Modular Payloads MQ-La Ground Moving Target Indicator Information Integration ISR Airborne Moving Target Indicator EW AAR-R Modular Payloads Command and Control Now Future

Next Generation RPA Key Concepts
Fully modular and upgradable Support future roles and mission needs Size, Weight and Power Maximize sensor & weapons flexibility High subsonic dash Force packaging and responsiveness Target area persistence Survivable in denied or contested environments Tanker Sensor Truck Missile Truck

Advanced ISR Capabilities
Open architecture allowing modular sensors to be integrated quickly and inexpensively DAS LADAR Hyperspectral SIGINT SAR Open Sensor Bus WAAS Hyperspectral Situational Awareness Multi-stream Wide Area Sensor

Common Airframe with Modular Mission Bays
Pallets Tanker Tactical Transport Cost effective, multi-mission solution Transformable to optimize force mix per phase of conflict Simpler common/modular design One aircraft design effort Lower average production cost Lower life cycle costs Potentially streamlines acquisition & sustainment Notes: ISR Weapons platform Potential Savings - 25% in total aircraft inventory 23 23 23

Aeromedical Evacuation
AF RPA Modular Payloads MQ-9 Collection SIGINT/FMV Wide Area Airborne ISR SAR/GMTI CAS Increasing multi-mission capability enabled by: Automation, modularity, and interoperability MQ-9 - Collection – SIGINT/FMV CAS Now we don’t expect to field a fully capable aircraft but we incrementally improve the aircraft as various technologies are developed. It’s in this set we see modularity in “plug-and-play” capabilities that have the potential to enable a wide variety of mission sets.. MQ-Xc MQ-Xb MQ-Xa MQ-1 Collection – SIGINT/FMV CAS Specialized ISR Collection Dissemination ISR Comm Relay EWSEAD AAR-R Modular Payloads CAS AAR-T Airlift Air Interdiction Aeromedical Evacuation Personnel Recovery Modular Payloads Counter Air CSAR Strategic Attack Modular Payloads Missile Defense 24

AF RPA Modularity and Flexibility
Day 1, Phase 0 Day 5, Phase II Day 7, Phase III Day 12, Phase IV Day 30, Phase V Deploys with cargo Electronic Attack Refueling and Electronic Attack Armed ISR CAPS Theater comm relay ISR support of Irregular Warfare This slide shows some potential missions sets that could be handled by the MQ-X and its modules through out the ROMO and phases of conflict. We look for the MQ-X to combine airlift capability with fighter-like survivability and the endurance and sensor connectivity normally associated with ISR platforms. Modularity will give us the means to achieve flexibility to adapt to a variety of different mission sets....as the priority for the joint campaign change during the various phases of the conflict. MG Davis will now discuss the Army’s vision for the future… Reconfigures with SIGINT / IMINT Suppression of Enemy Air Defense and ISR “Loyal Wingman” CAS Interdiction Palletized Cargo Movements Modularity enables optimized RPA mission reconfiguration in the field 25

Autonomy Airpower focused on killing targets Focus now on finding enemy WWII Vietnam Gulf War 2011 (Current system) 1,000 planes (B-17) 30 planes (F-4) 1 plane (F-117) (F-16) 10,000 crew 60 crew 1 crew 1 Target 2 Targets 6 Targets Mass Aircraft Tactical Laser GPS In-the-Loop 2012 (MAC) 2022 (MAC + 50% auto) Distant Future 4 planes Loyal Wingman (Semi-autonomous) Swarm (Autonomous RPA) 1 crew Mission Commander Mission Director 32 Targets More Targets ??? Targets MAC Linked Collaboration On-the-Loop Collaborative Directing Modularity, automation, and interoperability will multiply the effectiveness and efficiency of acquisition, operations, and maintenance I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 26 26

Autonomy – Multi-Aircraft Control Potential Manpower Savings
2011 2014 (MAC) TBD (MAC + 50% auto) 50 CAPs 50 MQ-9 CAPs + 7 a/c in constant transit 10 pilots per CAP 500 pilots required + 70 pilots to transit a/c 570 Total Pilots 50 CAPs 50 MQ-9 CAPs 2 CAPs per MAC GCS 1 transit per MAC GCS 5 pilots per CAP 250 Pilots required + 0 to transit aircraft 250 Total Pilots 50 CAPs 50 MQ-9 CAPs on orbit 25 CAPs automated 25 CAPs in MAC (5 pilots/CAP) 125 pilots required + 25 auto-msn monitor pilots + 0 to transit aircraft 150 Total Pilots 56% Manpower Savings 64% Manpower Savings Transit Surge Capacity Transit Surge Capacity Notes: Auto Surge Capacity MAC = 1 pilot can fly up to 4 a/c

Fractionated, Composable
Enabling Affordable Multi-mission Flexibility Fractionated, Composable Capability Teams of People + Teams of Aircraft + Any Payloads This is where I want to go with MQ-X: A Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted System Fractionated autonomous systems provide a low-cost means for an as-needed composable mission capabilities, from individual or paired systems for simple EO/IR imaging or hunter-killer missions to large mission packages with redundancy for anti- access/area-denial environments Specifically: A standardized, low-cost, small- to medium-sized, remote-piloted airframe able to: Carry mission-specific payloads that can enable a fractionated (to divide or break something into parts) and survivable approach for meeting key needs of missions spanning the spectrum from low-end to high-end operations Able to carry an as needed mission package that can be composed from such standard elements carrying different payloads, ranging from single or paired elements for uncontested environments to a dozen or more elements in anti-access/area-denial environments The underlying airframe that enables such an architecture would use small efficient turbojet propulsion, be capable of fully autonomous takeoff, flight, landing, and collaborative control among elements of the mission package, and would carry standard-sized modular payloads such as: ISR, EW, strike, communications and other functions among the individual elements to compose the mission capability Elements cooperate autonomously to form a coherent system using secure, burst- mode, frequency-agile RF or laser communication Mission survivability in anti-access/area-denial environments comes from the multiplicative benefits of redundancy among the low-cost expendable elements in the fractionated system architecture, which can overwhelm adversary IADS via fundamentally asymmetric cost-imposing strategy. 28

One-to-Many Platforms
RPAs: Automated Partners/Loyal Wingman One-to-Many Platforms Loyal Wingman 29

Multi-Aircraft Control
Teams: One-to-Many Operators Loyal Wingman Multilateration “App Store” Multi-Aircraft Control SAR EO/IR Multimodal Fusion & Cross-Cueing Immersive Payloads 30

Technology Challenge Areas
Advanced Control Segment and Mission Management Operations Sense and Avoid Air Refueling Terminal Operations Multi-ship Cooperative Teaming Distributed Operations Manned-unmanned Teaming Flexible, Interoperable, Growth-Capable C2 & Information Architectures Standard & Open Payload Interfaces Mission & CONOPS Dependent Displays & C2 Payloads as Services Multifunctional Apertures 31

Next Steps: Technology Maturation Demonstrations
Sense and Avoid, File and Fly Terminal Area and Ground Operations Reliable, Certifiable System Software Predictive Displays/Dynamic Maneuvering BRK LT RT RECOVER Turn RT Turn LT Hard LT Hard RT Hook RT Hook LT Climb Dive CLEAR 32

Sense and Avoid Vision Adaptive Flight Procedures
Safety, Responsiveness Air Traffic Control/Mgmt Operational Transparency Adaptive Mission Operations SAA Enables: Increased info collection Coordinated missions Cooperative target engagement International Operations

Next Steps: Technology Maturation Demonstrations
Cooperative Engagement Cooperative ISR Comm Relay Distributed Search Combined Sensor functions IP Based Flight and Sensor Control 34

Communicating Across Threat Environments
BLOS C2 / Data between RPAs / CAOC via Wideband SATCOM; Bandwidth / Transmissions restricted in AOR JFACC/CAOC Global Hawk/ Bams USAF deep attack forces Carrier Strike Group AWACS / E-2 Relayed SATCOM and LOS to Forward platforms via RPAs, E-3, Airborne Gateway, etc F-35 LOS C2 / Data via Directional LPI Links to Anti-Access Platforms Mission Control Element Aerial Refueling Tanker / RPA Local Network Ground Forces/SOF 35 35

Communicating Across Threat Environments
BLOS C2 / Data between RPAs / CAOC via Wideband SATCOM; Bandwidth / Transmissions restricted in AOR JFACC/CAOC Permissive Contested Anti-Access Global Hawk/ Bams USAF deep attack forces Carrier Strike Group AWACS / E-2 Relayed SATCOM and LOS to Forward platforms via RPAs, E-3, Airborne Gateway, etc F-35 LOS C2 / Data via Directional LPI Links to Anti-Access Platforms Mission Control Element Aerial Refueling Tanker / RPA Local Network Ground Forces/SOF 36 36

THE FUTURE OF UNMANNED AIR POWER: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY & STRATEGY
Ethical implications of RPA use Today counterintuitive…more ‘ethical oversight’ than manned aircraft In future will become a significant issue with greater autonomy… Cultural implications Common perceptions out of sync with reality… RPA technology enthusiastically embraced inside the Air Force… Accuracy/collateral damage Air delivered weapons most accurate means of force application Taliban number one cause of civilian casualties in AF/PAK Are RPAs subject to excessive exuberance? While introducing enormous capability and concept advantages, RPAs are not a panacea for air warfare nor replacement for manned aviation Vulnerability of RPAs in contested/denied airspace is significant

Syrian Territory Photos by RPA
Refugees, Syrian-Turkish border 38 38

Syrian Territory Photos by RPA
Khirbet Ghazaleh, Syria, Aug-Sep 2015 39 39

USAF Remotely Piloted Aircraft Future: 2013-2047
Lt Gen Dave Deptula, USAF (Ret) Former Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (some updates Sep 2015)

USAF Remotely Piloted Aircraft Future:

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