1. 1 Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee Wednesday, February 24, 2010

2. 2 Committee Members Mark Eddy Judge Tom Hart - Marion Donna Keddy – DHS David Koch – Mult Co. Jeff Lichtenberg – Jefferson Co. Torri Lynn – Linn Co. Colette Peters - OYA

3. 3 Introductions Background Review of Executive Orders Discretionary Beds, Demand Forecast Issues (Roundtable) Statistical Summaries Next Meeting: Wednesday March 24, 1:30 BAM Conference Room

4. 4 Basics Forecast how many kids Oregon Youth Authority will supervise. Started 1998. Demand added 2004. Forecast used for budgeting and planning. Staff does the technical work. DAS, OEA, CJC, OYA, DOC Committee advises, provides direction, buy off.

5. 5 Basics Different groups forecasted Close Custody – Discretionary, DOC, PSR Forecast released April 15, Oct. 15. Projects populations monthly for 10 years. This all happens per executive order. OYA

6. 6 Executive Orders EO 98-06 Established advisory committee Set forecast dates, what to forecast, etc. Forecast used for budgeting and long term planning EO 04-02 added demand: "...committee shall define the current demand for discretionary beds...“ "...definition to be used to forecast demand for...discretionary bed allocation..." –Note: latitude in defining demand EO 08-15 Reaffirmed the orders through year 2014

7. 7 Discretionary Beds Close custody beds Not Measure 11 offenses (serious person) –E.g., Burglary 1, Theft 1, UUMV, Assault 3, Sex Abuse 1 Bed space allocated for county use Filled to capacity – budget level Assume: More capacity would be used

8. 8 Demand Reference level of demand Index applied to reference level –Relative measure of criminality over time Early on: counter-intuitive implications for technical reasons (re-base reference) Recently: demand tied to prior forecast

9. 9 Demand – Considerations Useful for – budgeting – planning Need committee action Credible, objective, consistent Index approach Reference level

10. 10 Forecast Issues Recent law changes Current policy and practices County diversionary funding Tracking: population has been slightly below forecast Forecast direction: small reduction, possible trend adjustment.

11. 11 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Referrals to county juvenile departments Source: JJIS (minor adjustments) Year 2000 to Year 2009 –Number, annual percent change Offense Breakdowns: –Felony, misdemeanor., A, B, C, severity –Person related, other –Race, sex, county

12. 12 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000

13. 13 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000

14. 14 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other) Rate shows stronger decline (referrals per juvenile).

15. 15 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals

16. 16 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals by Year and Class

17. 17 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other

18. 18 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other Person Related: Sex Offense Assault Homicide Related Weapons Robbery Person Other Other: Arson Burglary Theft Criminal Mischief Substance/Alcohol Other 53% Drop 30% Drop

19. 19 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals -- Race and Type 2000 2009 Other Person Related

20. 20 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Fel. Ref. -- Reduction by County -- Annual %

21. 21 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Reduction by County – Overall %

22. 22 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Misdemeanor Referrals Violations/other are similar to misdemeanors referrals in overall number and in change from 2000 to 2009

23. 23 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Misdemeanor Referrals by Year and Class

24. 24 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Close Custody Population DCC – Discretionary DOC – Adult Court –More serious person crimes (M11) PSR – Public Safety Reserve –More serious person crimes (M11) –Too young for adult court –…or first entry…

25. 25 Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Number of Youths in Close Custody DCC=600 DOC=278 PSR=182 Total=1,060 DCC=415 DOC=368 PSR=86 Total=869 Dec. 2002 Jan. 2010

26. 26 Juvenile Incarceration Rates State Comparisons Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/asp/State_Facility_Operation.asp Number of committed juveniles – total Includes state, local, public, private Calculated Rate: number per 100,000 Using ages 9-17 for total population http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/comparison_selection.asp Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006 “Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.” Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook." Online. Available: http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/

27. 27 Juvenile Incarceration Rates State Comparisons Rate per 100,000 – Year 1999 213 311

28. 28 Juvenile Incarceration Rates State Comparisons Rate per 100,000 – Year 2006 173 232

29. 29 Juvenile Incarceration Rates State Comparisons Change in Rate – 1999 to 2006 -25% -19%