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Citizen Scientists and Tropical Cyclone Activity
1 3 Ken Knapp1 Chris Hennon2 Carl Schreck3 Scott Stevens3 Paula Hennon3 2
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Collaborators -evad 00soupcat 0zeros asiclait 18jdt fub 2017guzmb 2017katze 2017mcevj 2017phils 2017randa 2017trant 2017trantr 2017whinc 2017zhanj 2017zimmg 2018Schar 2018bellc 2018biroe 2018fengd 2018flyna 2018fonsd 2018groua 2018harra 2018heinc 2018jacom 2018jafra 2018kathe 2018krusr 2018meikm 2018philj 2018ruizm 2018russm 2018sawys 2018thoms 2018vazqa 2019carel 2019chany 2019gordd 2019guias 2019komas 2019patts 2019rutll 2019smitt 2019trisi 2019trisj 2019vickn 2019waldm 2019wiesm or6to4 3Simplex 53toms 59Ballons 7bratz7 AGBielawa AL150N AMeals Acebulf Acheron-494 Adddi AdoGreen Aeniah Aenima AgentQ Aggie92 Airik Al James AlanNokes AlexMoisan AlexxMontoya Alialamo98 Anaclaudia Anakira AndrewTurner AndyC123 Anniebananie AntonyA Antstep Archi Ardric47 Arlon Arundada Astarte Astraeus Astroskylark Atacca Athena666 AuC AuKNiFe Auclovk Auke Schuringa Auroness Autter Aymeric_1 BLC01 BMisu BTBisceglia BWD316 Badoney38 Barbara Irene Bart Lutin-Smet Bay_gchan BeccaDM Belana Ben_W87 BetelgeuSeginus Bishop92 Bjahrens BlackHoleMan Blanco202 BlarneyPhone BlipBlap_of_the_Cosmos BlueHand BlueHen09 Bluedew Bob Roach Boolits Borokai Bosonwigs Boynser BrettLarsen Brianmp BrindhaKanniah Brown.AH BuddhaDave ByronFortescue C-nymph CWMiller2 Cahethel CalJames Camda5585 Captain Geronimo Captain Video CaptainBreakfast Carlington Caro Carty75 Casbot Casna51 Catherinek Chanters Charles the Great Cherrylann Chewie_Donenea Chocoholic_Jedi Chocolate_69 ChrisJaybles ChrisMM76 Chrissie3003 Christian Reinboth ClaireCiaran Clipperton Coanbu CocaBigMac Coelacanth ColdasIce ColeenB CoolMike Core Xii CosmosV. CountGeiger CrazyC83 CrazyCarlFunk CrimsonVixen Cris_Ramos CrissieH Cruuux CrystaWolf Cyberchipz CybrTed Cyclone90 CycloneSteve CycloneTom D.Schroeder DCJoeS DEVO DVus1 DanDuddy DanValentineUSA Daphne Nash Briggs Darkwolfdemon Daveybhoy David Steidl Dawn0902 Denkol DennisGlowacki DevonWilliams Diluvius Dinoc Dinoguy1000 DiscoNixon DoctorWhooo Dontheseeker Doobler Dotyro Doug Bristol Doug49 Dr. Nicholas Rush Dronak Dstaffa Dufferz Duniverse Dylzuzu EP88 Early_Bird Easthill Ed Grau Einhard ElisabethB Elizabethmchristy Elmin Emeraldis EmperorMoose Enirel Equixor Erorr ErythroUnis Eskapp Eukaryote49 Ewout.130cc Ex103 FantasticBauke FeCafe Fergie Fezman92 FinalEclipse FireFighterRB Fireside12 Flashstep Fleiger Florafloraflora Foliant Foylefiend FrancisAstro Francisco De Leon Frankensport FreedSpirit FritsKoek Froststar1 Frungo Funnybones G4m3rMatt GITO69 GabyB Gaganesh Garlion Garrison1994 Gazing40 Geeklette Geognome Geosage GizmomcS Glen Baron Gmanearley Goldi GrantWishes Green-Eyes GreenWave Greenstar37 Grendel72 Grimjar Grimms7 Grisou Grossi1990 Guau Gud Haberley Hanny Hans-Juergen Wagner Harizanov Havok10 Hazmo HeavenPunisher Heggiedj Helenog Helice HoosierGen Hughes_Matt HurricaneGeorgia HurricaneTracker Hurricanehink Hyrina Igniris Igor_L Ikertza Imba4life Imtok Ingolme Isabel Silva Isabelita JAColickIII JGann04 JJARS JS_99_2000 JScottL Jack Wales Jakobswede JasonJason Jay.Duffy Jchristo75 Jcjohnson Jeegan JeffNW JennBrummage Jeshyr Jetstar503 JimBiard JimmyMill Jmpelissero Jnoelle Joanne9 Joe Fogey Johanson69 John Jo JohnathanJohnson18 JohnnySmr Jolly Rodger Jonahman10 Jonathan Markham Jonsku99 Jordan2929 Josiah Simes Jota_Pex JuddaMan87 JudgeJudi JudiBlue Julesmarie13 Julia Bateson JupiterMercury87 JupiterN Jwa81197 Jwb52z K1ERO KBroz KELaird KGuerin KJDL80 KLBusby KPeregrine KWillett Kaizer0510 Kalahira Kandosii Karpantrax KateKrz Kateb999 KatherineNicole KatiaLightning KatieEMHodge Kayaker12 Kealani Kellta2 KenE Kendar05 Keoni3876 Kerry_Wallis KhalilaRedBird Kia C Kielsey17 KikiNieb Kilian_Tex Killzzy Kim Tryka KimDodd Knappster Konfusius Koos83 Kramb.Andrew Kucana Kukbalam Kypdurron Kythen LFALLONSFALLON LPJeckley LaGeographe Labrat1978 LaneMcConnell Larry98513 LeeWx Leebrownell Lenticularis LiamIrwin LiamT Lightbulb500 Lilygwen Linsley boxill LissyNumber Littlevoice LizArm Look4Star Lookingfrlife67 Lucas Orell LucretiuSimetry LucyitSwD Luke Fitzpatrick Lyane LydiaJ LynnNoE M.GOURAN MAR.S MEANA MECU MJNL MSUSpartan MacTomas Mad_Mac Mag84illfully Magerit Mahmoth Mamaganoush Mano2010 Mantukeliukas Manuel Contrras Marco95 Marcos R Marlex Matara28 Mattia Verga Matty-Gee Mbrig24 McArt Me2! MegaStarFinger Meggers MelRodgers MelonSponge Memmolo Messingzoowolf Metronb511 Mhill09 Michkov MikeNGarrett MikeySans Mimski Mjtbarrett Moezilla Mojojano Momofunk Morsonr Mortysha Mote Mountainkayak MrCohen MrGrisher Mrstress MuonNeutrino Muppers N77 NCStateMMY NEZ1 Nakaza Nayn Trolac NearlyNeville Nessan007 Nicholas C. NightOwl2120 Nightwolfdreams Noobinou Norboy OBAFGKM Oats Oceanowl Offler1968 Oharris Onegoodturn Oozyzoozy Oscar1959 PDee78 PILIRANO PJ-RTS Palindrom Pallas Pam Tonothy Pascal24 Patricio Allaire PaulMetcalfe Persei Pex Pier Pietro Ferretti Pogomon Pozmol Prateek1 PrincessMilissa Pskr810 Psychilde Punkymonkey Quia RJ Pippitt RJK75 RJT185 RPolkinghorne Raffa Ramian1 Ran-chan RandomAct Rasputin13 Raven Vasquez ReeRee Renesis Rhenny Rhianna22_8 Rhiazz Ricardo.130cc Roadski Robert Pick Roberx Robotboy Robur Rockgirl RocktimusPrime Rolli Rorrke RoyalHoek Runninblind RussellV Ryuski S00Z SCOUSER1964 SEAN DIGWEED SS Ohio Sa7elli7e Sagala SailorM4ev Saint.Maria Sajel Salaster Sam0288 SannaL-FIN SatyrTN Schleicher65 Scott A. Cook Sea Bear SeanMichael SeanTaylor Sejj SelbySmith SemperFyr Setyrh SevereWeatherLover SgtTwister ShandeeV Shellypm Shigeru SierraRS SilverTips Silverspeck Simonw92 Sipolandis SirListerOfSmeg Skratt SkyWarn UK Slamguitar Slidinger Slivedog SlyTMan Smerby Smurphette SnowflakeDragonfly Snupps Soana21 Socjon SpaceDave11 SpacedMan SpaghettiOfPork Spherical Spinifex Starwoman Stella07 Struck Sunfisherstar Sungl SuperScience SuperTiger Supereggman2000 Supernova56 SusannaG SusieKay_ Swampguts Sway787 Sylverone TERESA DAWN KRESS TT_monkey1912 Talas TeachEarthSpace TheAugie TheGlassesGirl TheLastCicada TheNerd TheSansMan TheTomi TheWildAmerica Thomaub ThreeStars Thyme Lawn Tihana Tjobbe Tmims TomTaylor94 TonyMazz TornadoFreak1994 Tranan Trappercat Tredegar TropicalAnalystwx13 Tsavo Tucnace Tvex09 U.N.K Ucuri Uganalandia UnseenAlchemist Unsuitable Urd VSC Varith Veegee Veja-Du Venisor2 Veridian 4 VictoriaLT Vinokurov ViperSRT3g Vzlascience12 WRobert Wadjet War_Spigot WeatherYote Websd Whitepine WildflowerSchool Wimfan2000 Witgren Woo-H Wop WordTwirler Wthrman13 WxGirl X68 YE YPaquette YV5lfx Yaguara7 Yiorch Yoonsoo Bach Yupeiguo Yuta ZRDragoon Zadha349RL15D Zezzo.M496 Zinic Zirr Zoebaby709 Zonka Zooniverse-Darkr Zovacor _joebowman _leticia a6farwell2016 aRssh a_cadogan aandrews aaron5951 aarongibbs aavit abahnson abe farr aberg2 abetzel abhilashkrishn ablass abminddesigns abofill aburden5 acalvomayo acbobl account19 addpaws adelinelutts adlerPH adozhier adschnap aero82 aethervox af aferraro aggiesam ahijevyc ahillamon aid457 aidan200sx alan.g.dalton alberto olante alecjcook aleehar aleema alexcostabh alexnikonoff alfia alfredvclark alit allan71 allenvang aloconte altair005 ama1372 amanda.alverman amargossian amberiler amgillard amir_gold amitkarpe amorales amytut analog.kid analyst1 anami andbald andrew1987 andromeda72 andygardner angkaro anita1000 anjinsan54 anned75 anonjp antobill antonio01 anvilcrawler apples679 aquablusee ardent arevsousa arfon argentum ari11 ariana23 arkeokat ashlou aspringer astamicu asterisk_man asterix135 astrochu astrodavid ataltos atflytrap athenaswisdom atomic7732 atomj123 atpcliff atteneri aufelipe augustlepique aurelie1991 avatarricardo1 avendano123 aws5622 awt129 azwing b n ross b3nwasher badgoes bakerb845 bakerhart balp banaga333 banan2010 banluil barbiegoth barbw4 barnard5555 bartronsx basilaris bassmastur bassophile bawahtanah bboland bcaruthers04 bcooperman beawitch becks688 becquerel235 beekay beepynoise bella118 ben clew ben de la vega ben.mannie benners36 berome bertieboy bethanmichael02 bethany79 betsy71 bezowa bfotino bieslook big wind big.glass97 bigomoe bigwol billgbill billmander billygsmith billymac binaflavia1234 binifra bj430 bjones125 bkossik black cat blade400 bleedsgreen44 bliedtke blue0424 blue72 bluemuffin78 bluereef blueseater bmercer bmoraes boatwrightlaw bobbie101 bobbinman1 bobbrownct bobdevine bobinky boffles boglam bohne2k7 bolus bolzenius borad bordener borderewe bosists bosox107 botanybird botster1 boukenpurple bowe boxbot bpb42 bpedersen brandenpearson brandonova1 brandzai braves breezesj bretarn brettkliner brian engler brian-c brian2994 brian_cyclone_split_test brianday brianparham bridge2nowhere brlee bruced39 bsheehan bsperlin bstewart7 bsyur bt904 bthayer25 bubbleguppy buckadilla budalu buj2012 bum_ishness bumishness bunyasakai burkina bvan bwblythe cagriakyurt caliburPL call_apple caller cameron.hale camiller caminodelbar campbell_julie camstib camweg candace M caouic capndyke cappa captbrs carl_schreck carlosblancos carlosz22 carol stabler carquette carrotsnmysox cathcollins cattues9 cch001 cdeuso cdg-76 cdlea3 cecilia.bergman cecilpl cekull centavo cfr cgong ch!l! chaacattac chadada chall chapin.sean charlei chatln chdem chelms chibitus chichart chinagreen chip592 chmiel choldar chollow chomczas chris19 chris_h2 chrisfillie chrisotahal christina-d.c. chriswen chriswinston1 chubbj ciber71 cjandkp ckallay clabinger clacy claireschmieder claprade79 clay 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donsgirl1983 doomweaver doray doriazul dorothy smith dprice22340 dragoffire dragoon22 drakenmaster drphilmarshall drtb dtr8tm dtyler dumsolus duncanci durgis dwardio e-hut7 e2Paul e3v1h6 eagle819 earthenergie earthrise8 ebakkal ecaldwell ecameronofms eckhoclark23 economaster eddieadolf edmanley edpaget edwardvanderbosch efockkk egallant eikwar eitara ekkehard ekpasxs elfinelvin elioteston elisabeth ellenklicka ellipsis6 elowitzr emazza emeraldgirl503 emmarkg emodulor emtheplumber endall13 enforcer68 enotswolley enrialbe enry01 epburton eperdomo ericacain ericbeaujard ericfw erin.hendrix1 erzogen es5nhc eschereality eschroeder129 eseda eshafto eugenewatson evanthia evel_chihuahua ewhalley eye1der fabianobas fabonnelly fairchdr fairport9 fallenfruit farmer8587 farrelly farrider faylackey fcca fchb2u ferlab fetter04 fezzik fgmikemorrison fidian filbyp fingerprint82 firedrake firehorse2012 firemanjersey firepig fishiefoo fjfarr fjfzcgh flagusco flemingcra flying duck fonzie3b foxmaniac frania86 franklin tellez fransm frantzn fred5844 fretless fritscsj froboy froesccn fsaintpierre fuchsia fudgeball fulikalter funishment funkylegos fussycat fuzzyamp gabrielapetrie gana gandalfwannabe gazelon gbedolla gdstraus gelkaim320 gellybean geminijo geopablo geos gerdublan gillianm gillskill giova95 gipsyeyes giraffequeen gissparsile gkn gliese67 gloworm glyph250 gmcniel gmonteferrante gmparts gnowicki gnugget gordonr gorilli got_milk gpsmd graffixx808 grammawatch grantale grayflan greatguard grebil-bizot greenjinjo greenwatch44 greghilton grimkin grinch1000 grosbeak grun85 gseeto gseroka gstanz67 gtracz gumpd1234 gun88 gurrisisalv gwrush gyudgyu h9yadav hadron collider halldamir ham236 handsi hanpa11 hanson_m happy5214 hardglove haskielr haswain hatchetwolf hausmans haveaswiss hawkeyezz hayley064 hayward57 hberkshire heinikien helen_butland hellsbadass helohe heltna hendynycoed hennon henrylau herv herwech hestie3 hinmansarah hippydreamer hitachiinkaoru hjmckane hmichon hoaxed hodagia hoddy holaboy7 hollandm hoofdee hopkins75us horstHP hpatss1 hubbahubba2112 hukonomics humanzoo hunter47175 huskiebear hydriss hypatia iaia92 ian beer ian hodgson ianhfc iascript ifii igb.iga igorv ihilanimatsters ijunzzang iksylar ilektrionas illiterati ilse imjustanuthagal infantryfireman inomyabcs ipuppy irawyn irene baldwin ironocean irussell isnochys itullis iyktyn jabawock jabezcreed jack jack9515 jackknife jackool99 jacobcreamer jadin04 jagadishkr jaiket jaimectrs jak0203 jakobwilton jamac41 jamega jan.duterte janetcwest janita simpson janlederman jaqueja jarnoburger jaroslavp jasf jasonandlexie jasonkauf jasontitus8 jastoerks jatorre java jake jaybach jaypt jbhalper jborck jbregy1 jbrich jccwrt1990 jcredberry jcrscott jd2207 jdax57 jdemers jebyrnes jeevanjee jeffjones61 jegr jemerson jenglish13 jenmitch00 jenner247450 jennie.withers jennyael jeremywong jgrahamf jguerrero37 jha40954 jhannagan jhruska jiggs jiipee jikrov923 jimlberto jimmywaltz jimreynolds46 jims26615 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magyar mahutch mama2ja mamoosh mandomandox manillia1968 manmar manufl_667 maramcgregor marcelv marcinkulakowski marclluell margaretcarew marilyn morgan marjieN markballen markrh martakot227 martijn1202 martinjoshua7 maschill mateo832 maths95 mats_w mattcbennett matteske max maxi maz112 mbb15555 mbjornas3 mburns629 mcaustin1 mcfaddea mcgonzales mclarkson mcnoch mcstalcius md189 mddx141 mdhauke mdibben me6471 medeardorff medknight melikescheese melissawoodall menacingk merector meridionaljet merkosh mesocyclonic meteorologue mfischer2 mfonnemann mgerbino mgreengrow mgtew mheineman mhenley91 mhsr mhz mich_wimbledon michelle32720 michellekinzel michpet midon midwestmarykay mielisha mightymatty miguel_ab miguelac miguelgambler mijoja mike6159 mikecollazo mikecraig mikejwx mikenelsen81 mikeu miklan millchar minniebobinnie mirleywood misha412 miske misterlolie mitsos1989 mitsubishievo6 miyoung1 mjkulczak mjolnir mjouder mjsottile mkovacs mlcutting mleber87 mlinahan mmorehou mmxavier mnemonik 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selenesun selias524 senthil.thyagarajan sestevens seth2402 sevagm sgates007 sggriffith sgoodmansen sgtgary shadow84tam shale shantimorrell shari sharina sharkbayte sharonabee shawshank08 shayeman sheena fathers sheepz shilohhowland shinpah shireen shobana sridhar shslim sid.stefanescu sideshow_larry sik1 sillin sillymy silva_tempus silvernose simon heffer simonjk sinistral sirpeppy sirswatch sji2006 skaurus skeneharris skerickson skirtedrunner skoog skwalker skylark42 slashmarks sleepyjean slglick slightlyoffset slohanz69 smallvillenews smartflyboy smejkalv snedden snillocnharas snooddood snorski so_called soesoe sogle2015 sokrates49 solarsearch solkaba solomonfolk sools soviet mike spacedolphin spacemonkey220 sparkey sparrowinsky spell4yr spirit772 splante0212 spodog06 spompian spoonbow springlight squishycakes sredhead sroman sshreeves starpirate72401 stavrosc stavtsev staylor20 stblaize steblak steve hutchinson stevekrz stevenjtracey sthrad stinamin stonehouse_c8 stoopidshoe 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vasquezlb velthove verp vgamez vianca_miguel vineel viralstrain vitagrama vmatuza vmaxwell volafox volare09 volatile36 voyager vuchaser w4caster wade705 wakaleo wallyrus warrington warvair waterjilly wbbooks wbdave wdr weather weatherbob weatherfreak weathergeek weatherguy173 weatherrocks weatherspmd webgrazer weboide websorcerer wendolk wendytaylor245 wessel wewincke wflamholtz whimsylady willowkitty wilmalingle wilsonsofoxford wilyoldvet winter.january withsilverwings wizowebstr wjeffr44 wolfer wpatelunas wrongway840 wtkoala wujiongqian wulfskinner wunderstorm87 wvicky wvvampire wx5396 wxchic wxgirl2014 wxwatcher16 wy59 x_3mta3 xairbusdriver xarathustra xarcherdrum137 xavierv xbltheshadow xcamel xip080 xiyanxu xridonkulousx xroxa xs.confusion yenn ylaenna ymshelanu yohji_boi youpilala12 yusacp za4ar zac8151 zac_spaceman zaf zafiraman zak zardoz99 zarzycki zeekie zemogle zeneck zenonosense zodiacsd zoesaulsgiver zolw zoo gazer zookeeper zoombob zorgzzzzz zverolen
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Citizen science project to help understand historical tropical cyclone activity Participation rates are growing Preliminary results show promise Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Best Track Data Historical record of tropical cyclone locations and intensities Best estimate using all available data Satellite estimates account for vast majority of the record Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Yvette (1992) CMA = China, HKO = Hong Kong Introduction Demonstration
Engagement Summary
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Mike (1990) CMA = China, HKO = Hong Kong Introduction Demonstration
Engagement Summary
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How Is Typhoon Activity Changing?
Emanuel (2005) Webster et al. (2005) Kossin et al. (2007) Wu et al. (2006) Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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The Dvorak Technique Visual analysis of tropical cyclone satellite images Implementation has changed over time and between agencies Has been automated, but pattern recognition still best by human eye Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Cyclone Center Overview
300,000 infrared images from around the globe Have volunteers apply Dvorak-like procedure Apply QC procedures/ constraints Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Demo Which image appears stronger? Volunteers presented 6 images
Asked simple questions about cloud structure. Blogs help volunteers understand motivation progress science “Talk” forum allows users to share experience and ask questions Which image appears stronger? Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Demo Pick the cyclone type, then choose the closest match?
Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Demo The optional detailed classification can provide better analysis
Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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30% of all classifications are “Detailed”
Participation so far 2300 users 600 storms 30,000 images 135,000+ classifications 16,000 on 3rd day Mass GalaxyZoo Super Storm Sandy 30% of all classifications are “Detailed” Currently ~ 500 per day 40, , , ,000 Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Participation rates Bretarn: 5630 Chrisotahal: 3835 Introduction
Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Very preliminary results
1990 Hurricane Trudy (East Pacific) Using preliminary analysis of initial questions No analysis using “Detailed Classification” yet Results show similarity in time series Only validates proof of concept … much left to do. Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Summary www.CycloneCenter.org
Citizen science project to help understand historical tropical cyclone activity Participation rates are growing! Preliminary results show promise! Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Extra Slides
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Cyclone Type and Closest Match
Flow Chart Which is Stronger? Cyclone Type and Closest Match Embedded Center Eye Shear Curved Band Other Click the Center And Eye Size Click the Center Click the Center Click the Center Edge Surrounding Color Nearest Red Point Post Tropical No Storm Center Temperature Choose the Color Color at least 0.5° Thick Distance to Convection Banding Feature How far does it wrap? Banding Feature Introduction Method Demonstration Summary
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The road so far 135,000 classifications and counting
about 500 per day One-hit wonders and Superusers are both important Detailed classifications come from more dedicated users Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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The road ahead Focus the classifications on 106 storms:
31 Atlantic storms from 2005 for validation 25 most uncertain Western Pacific storms 25 most uncertain South Pacific storms 25 most uncertain South Indian storms Keep active volunteers engaged Stay active on the forums Plan “Flash Mobs” where we try to get everyone to classify at the same time Other ideas? Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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Demo
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Demo
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Demo
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Demo
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Volunteer Contributions
Introduction Demonstration Engagement Summary
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