1. A Brief History of Statistics

2. Medieval Times: Dice and Gambling

3. Modern Times: Dice and Games/Gambing

4. Dice Probabilities 1616 =16.7% 123456 1234567 2345678 3456789 45678910 56789 11 6789101112 1 36 = 2.78% 6 36 =16.78% Dice Outcome are Independent Sum

5. Dice Probabilities 123456 1234567 2345678 3456789 45678910 56789 11 6789101112 Probability Distribution

6. Blaise Pascal 1600’s: Probability & Gambling one "6" in four rolls one double-six in 24 throws Do these have equal probabilities? Chevalier de Méré 1623 - 16621607 - 1684

7. Binomial / Bernoulli Distribution 1654-1705

8. Binomial Distribution The principal reason for using a normal curve test on a dichotomy has been the past difficulty of calculating the exact binomial distribution.

9. 1761: Bayes Formula Probability Distribution New Data Probability Female Probability Male Height of the Person = Data Prior (X) Data Prior (X) 60 67.575 = Gender Prior (X) Child Height 66.5 1701 - 1761

10. Bayesian Formulas – Excel D

11. Google Ngram Viewer Ngram: word or string in a corpus Corpus: a large or complete collection of writings Team of researchers from Harvard, Google, Encyclopaedia Britannica, and the American Heritage Dictionary Analyzed 5 million books from 1500 to 2008 500 billion unique words ~4% of all books ever published

12. Bayes, Bayesian 1800 1900 2000 1760

13. Ngram Viewer: “statistics” 18001900 2000

14. Observation on Height Adolphe Quételet (1796-1874) Mid 1800’s studied Social Data, Crime ‘Quetelet Index’: Weight / Height Now known as the “Body Mass Index” "The average person"

15. Normal 18001900 2000

16. 1st Regression Line - 1877 The first “Regression Line” 1822 - 1911

17. “statistics”, “correlation” “regression” 18001900 2000 statisticscorrelationregression

18. “Standard Deviation” 18001900 2000

19. Tukey 1915 – 2000 He introduced the box plot in his 1977 book, "Exploratory Data Analysis".

20. 3 18001900 2000 Ngram Viewer: “sliderule”

21. `` 18001900 2000 Ngram Viewer: “calculator”

22. Ngram Viewer: “computer”, “internet”

23. Machine Learning

24. Ngram Viewer: “chi square”

25. chi-square test vs. z-test on a proportion Two-tailed Z-test for two proportions (using a pooled estimate of p) and a chi-square test for a 2-by-2 table will give exactly same P-value.