1. Spatial and Transient Behavior of the South Pacific Convergence Zone Presented by, Matthew Widlansky Peter J. Webster, Advisor Hai-Ru Chang Carlos Hoyos School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology November 14, 2008

2. ITCZ SPCZ SACZ SICZ SPCZ Literary Review Focus of Study Why does the SPCZ veer southward away from the ITCZ? The SPCZ is a region of widespread cloud cover and precipitation extending southeastward from New Guinea into Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes. (Streten 1973; Trenberth 1976) Tropical convection is oriented zonally and highly correlated with the warmest SSTs. (Vincent 1994) Baroclinic-type disturbances influence the diagonal region. (Kiladis et al. 1989) Orientation changes during different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). (Trenberth 1997; Karoly and Vincent 1999) Cloud Cover

3. Motivation “While basin-scale climate studies point to the southwest Pacific as a region pivotal to decadal climate variability, neither its oceanic or atmospheric features [specifically the South Pacific Convergence Zone] have been properly depicted by models or observations…” (Ganachaud et al. 2007, CLIVAR SPICE Project) Stated Goals of SPICE: 1.Improve dynamical explanations for why the SPCZ forms. 2.Understand why General Circulation Models (GCMs) misdiagnose the southward veering of the SPCZ. (Double ITCZ problem) 3.Determine where new meteorological observations are necessary to better constrain atmospheric GCMs.

4. VariableSourceResolutionUsesCaveats OLR (Out-going Longwave Radiation) NOAA (OI) (Liebmann and Smith 1996) 2.5˚ by 2.5˚ Daily average Climatology Wave tracking Sat & Met Interference Tropics/sub- tropics Winds NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (Kistler et al. 2001) 2.5˚ by 2.5˚ Daily average Upper- troposphere dynamics Data poor South Pacific SST (Sea Surface Temperature) NOAA (ER) (Smith and Reynolds 2004) 2.0˚ by 2.0˚ Daily average Basin-scale gradients Sat & Met Interference Data and Methods Upper-troposphere (200 hPa) zonal winds (u) diagnose regions of negative zonal stretching deformation (s -1 ): Nomenclature

5. Regions with OLR values less than 240 W m -2 (Vincent 1994) are experiencing deep atmospheric convection. Seasonal convection patterns are driven by the meridional shift of the West Pacific Warm Pool. SPCZ reaches strongest intensity during the austral summer months (DJF). SPCZ Seasonal Cycle DJF Climatology: OLR and Zonal Stretching Deformation (200 hPa) JJA Climatology: OLR and Zonal Stretching Deformation (200 hPa) Contours: Negative Zonal Stretching Deformation (200 hPa)

6. Fundamental Questions What dynamical processes amplify convection in the mid-latitude (diagonal) SPCZ? Why do many GCMs fail to simulate convection in the diagonal portion of the SPCZ? Why does the SPCZ veer southward away from the ITCZ? NCEP Reanalysis

7. 2-8 day bandpass filtered OLR linear regression: Base Point = 35˚S, 195˚E OLR (unfiltered)- Shaded contours ∂u/∂x (unfiltered)- Values greater (less) than 4x10 -7 s -1 (-4x10 -7 s -1 ) are shown. Solid contours depict negative anomalies, 2x10 -7 s -1 interval. Methods adapted from (Serra, Kiladis, Cronin 2008) Mid-latitude Wave Trains

8. Mean zonal winds create a band of upper-tropospheric negative stretching deformation near the subtropical and mid-latitude SPCZ. Group velocities (C gd ) of Rossby waves slow down in these regions leading to an accumulation of wave energy (ε). (Webster and Chang 1997) Wave Energy Accumulation Upper Troposphere NCEP Reanalysis:

9. Baroclinic Instability Do mid-latitude cyclones influence the SPCZ? Disturbance activity measured by eddy perturbation kinetic energy (PKE): Amplification near sub-tropical jet stream exit region Maximum PKE from east coast of Australia to mid-latitude SPCZ (e.g., Webster 1985; Webster 1989; Matthews and Kiladis 1999) NCEP Reanalysis:

10. Baroclinic Instability Bursts of PKE in sub-tropical and mid-latitude SPCZ. No clear latitudinal propagation into tropical SPCZ. Do disturbances accumulate near the SPCZ? Latitude-Time PKE Chart: NCEP Reanalysis: 2006 Case Study

11. Mid-latitude Wave Accumulation Hovmoller (Longitude- Time) Diagram OLR and Zonal Stretching Deformation A B C A B C Case Study (DJF 2006) Meridional average (20˚S-35˚S) Three regions of enhanced convection: A)South Indian Convergence Zone B)SPCZ C)South Atlantic Convergence Zone Pronounced eastern boundary of the SPCZ. Time (days) OLR (W m -2 ) Zonal Stretching Deformation (s -1 ) 2006 Case Study

12. Mid-latitude Wave Accumulation Case Study Observations: Many disturbances propagate slowly through the SPCZ. Convective anomalies increase. 2-8 day Filtered OLR and Zonal Stretching Deformation Two Propagation “Regimes” 1) Fast: 1,500 km day-1 2) Slow: 600 km day-1 Time (days) 2006 Case Study

13. (e.g., Webster and Chang 1988) Wave Energy Accumulation Boundary Layer (Previous Work) Upper Troposphere (Current Focus) (Schematic based on concepts in Webster and Chang 1997) Tropical modes may accumulate in lower troposphere bands of: Mid-latitude Rossby waves may accumulate in upper troposphere region of: Review of hypothesis for wave accumulation near the SPCZ:

14. SST Forcing on Zonal Winds Zonal SST Gradient Correlations: Zonal Stretching and OLR 90% Confidence Bounds Strong basin-scale zonal SST gradient. Greatest SST gradient found near SPCZ eastern boundary. Zonal Stretching Deformation (s -1 ) OLR (W m -2 ) SST Gradient (˚C) OLR ∂u/∂x OLR -0.4-0.6 ∂u/∂x0.5 Increased Convection More Negative

15. Intra-seasonal Forcing Intensity Changes Correlation of Seasonal Averages: OLR and Zonal Stretching Deformation Correlations statistically significant (95% level) for r >0.4 El Niño (NE Shift) La Niña (SW Shift) El Niño events (e.g., 1998): OLR ∂u/∂x > 0 Convection decreases in mid-latitude SPCZ (black box) Spatial Behavior (Standardized Indices)

16. Review of Dynamical Processes Sub-tropical jet stream enhances baroclinic instability in diagonal SPCZ. (Kiladis et al. 1989) Negative zonal stretching deformation cause synoptic disturbances to slow down and accumulate in the mid- latitudes. (Webster and Chang: 1988 and 1997) Wave energy accumulation may enhance convection in the diagonal SPCZ. (Current Work) Zonal stretching deformation may be forced by basin- scale SST gradients which are influenced by the phase of ENSO. (Current Work)

17. Remaining Questions and Future Work Do correlations between wave energy accumulation and convection exist on synoptic timescales? What causal relationships exist between SST, ∂u/∂x, and convection? Large-scale and high resolution modeling experiments 6hr WRF simulation of the SPCZ