1. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio David H. Bromwich, Lesheng Bai and Keith M. Hines Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University Plus Many Collaborators PROTOTYPE OF THE ARCTIC SYSTEM REANALYSIS PROTOTYPE OF THE ARCTIC SYSTEM REANALYSIS Supported by NSF, NOAA, and DOE

2. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Outline The Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) Polar WRF Atmospheric Data Assimilation Noah Land Surface Data Assimilation Validation ASR Results The Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) Polar WRF Atmospheric Data Assimilation Noah Land Surface Data Assimilation Validation ASR Results

3. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Arctic System Reanalysis Motivation 1. Rapid climate change is happening in the Arctic. A comprehensive picture of the climate interactions is needed. 2. Global reanalyses encounter many problems at high latitudes. The ASR is using the best available depiction of Arctic processes at much higher spatial resolution. 3. A system-oriented approach provides community focus with the atmosphere, land surface and sea ice communities. 4. The ASR provides a convenient synthesis of Arctic field programs (SHEBA, LAII/ATLAS, ARM,...).

4. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Outline A physically-consistent integration of Arctic and other Northern Hemisphere data Participants: Ohio State University - Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC) - and Ohio Supercomputer Center (OSC) National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) University of Colorado-Boulder University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign High resolution in space (10 km) and time (3 hours) Begin with years 2000-2010 (Earth Observing System)

5. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Polar WRF (Version 3.2.1) Polar WRF (Version 3.2.1) The key modifications for Polar WRF are: Optimal turbulence (boundary layer) parameterization Implementation of fractional sea ice as well as variable thickness of sea ice and snow cover on sea ice in the Noah LSM Improved treatment of heat transfer for ice sheets and revised surface energy balance calculation in the Noah LSM Model evaluations through Polar WRF simulations over Greenland, the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA site), and Alaska have been performed. Polar WRF is used by forecasters as part of the National Science Foundation sponsored Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. Polar WRF is used by ASR. The key modifications for Polar WRF are: Optimal turbulence (boundary layer) parameterization Implementation of fractional sea ice as well as variable thickness of sea ice and snow cover on sea ice in the Noah LSM Improved treatment of heat transfer for ice sheets and revised surface energy balance calculation in the Noah LSM Model evaluations through Polar WRF simulations over Greenland, the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA site), and Alaska have been performed. Polar WRF is used by forecasters as part of the National Science Foundation sponsored Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. Polar WRF is used by ASR.

6. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR WRF-3DVar / WRF Modeling System Background Error (gen_be) Nested WRF 3h Forecast xbxb xaxa Update Lateral & Lower BCs (UPDATE_BC) Background Preprocessing (WPS, real) x lbc Cycled Background B0B0 y o, R xfxf WRF-3DVar Global Fields ERA-Interim Seasonal dependent PREPBUFR Radiance BUFR Other spec. data 3h frequency HRLDAS output Verification & Visualization WRF-3DVar Analysis performed over one domain in a 3-h interval Atmospheric Data Assimilation

7. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Aqua (AMSU, AIRS) NOAA (HIRS, AMSU) Atmospheric Data Assimilation Observational Data for ASR Atmospheric Data Assimilation Observational Data for ASR PREPBUFR from Jack Woollen (including synop, metar, ship, buoy, qscat, sound, airep, profiler, pilot, satob, ssmi_retrieval_sea_surface_wind_speed, ssmi_retrieval_pw, gpspw) Radiances also from JW different sensors (amsua, amsub, mhs, hirs3, hirs4) in separate BUFR files GPS GPSRO, GPSIPW

8. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) for ASR Blending atmospheric and land-surface observations with the Noah land surface model. E.g., MODIS surface albedo, snow cover, and vegetation characteristics. To provide land state variables for driving the coupled Polar WRF/ Noah modeling system – Soil moisture (liquid and solid phase) – Soil temperature – Snow water equivalent and depth – Canopy water content – Vegetation characteristics To provide long-term evolution of the above variables plus surface hydrological cycle (runoff, evaporation) and energy cycle (surface heat flux, ground heat flux, upward long-wave radiation)

9. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Domain for ASR

10. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Validation Polar WRF Satellite Radiance Microphysics and Cloud Fraction Diurnal Pressure over Mountain Regions Polar WRF Satellite Radiance Microphysics and Cloud Fraction Diurnal Pressure over Mountain Regions

11. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Data Assimilation Result Polar WRF corrected 2m-temperature warm bias over Greenland Polar WRF AVN Data assimilation 2m-temperature ( o C) using Polar WRF and WRF, and ERA-Interim 2m-temperature ( o C) in October 2007. AVN ERA-Interm AVN ERA

12. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Validation: T 2m cold bias over sea ice (200712) Polar WRF WRF AVN

13. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Test Cases: Radiance T 2m NCEP PREBUFER NCEP PREBUFER + RAD

14. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Validation: Radiance NCEP PREBUFER NCEP PREBUFER + RAD

15. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Validation Microphysics and Cloud Fraction WSM 6-class scheme Morrison 2-moment scheme Cloud fraction. one month cycling run (200808) WSM 6-class schemeMorrison 2-moment scheme Cloud fraction. one month cycling run (200808)

16. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Validation: Surface Pressure Diurnal Cycle (200808) ERA-Interim (6h) ASR (3h) AVN (6h)

17. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Two Year Cycling Runs n Period: 2007-2008 n Reduced Resolution: 30km/71L, 10mb top n Observations in 3-hour time window –PREPBUFR (global obs errors) –satellite radiance data (AMSU-A, AMSU-B, MHIS) n ERA-Interim reanalysis for LBCs n WRF-3DVar/Polar WRF version 3.1.1 n Full 3-hourly cycling run on OSC Glenn cluster n Period: 2007-2008 n Reduced Resolution: 30km/71L, 10mb top n Observations in 3-hour time window –PREPBUFR (global obs errors) –satellite radiance data (AMSU-A, AMSU-B, MHIS) n ERA-Interim reanalysis for LBCs n WRF-3DVar/Polar WRF version 3.1.1 n Full 3-hourly cycling run on OSC Glenn cluster

18. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Polar WRF (Version 3.2) Numerical and Physics options Non hydrostatic dynamics; 5th order horizontal advection (upwind-based); 3rd order vertical advection; Positive-definite advection for moisture; 6th-order horizontal hyper diffusion; Full horizontal diffusion; Grid nudging to ERA-Interim 200 hPa and above; Upper damping; Morrison double-moment scheme; New Grell sub-grid scale cumulus scheme; RRTMG atmospheric radiation scheme; RRTMG shortwave scheme; MYNN planetary boundary layer scheme; MYNN surface layer; Noah land surface model; Fractional sea ice. Non hydrostatic dynamics; 5th order horizontal advection (upwind-based); 3rd order vertical advection; Positive-definite advection for moisture; 6th-order horizontal hyper diffusion; Full horizontal diffusion; Grid nudging to ERA-Interim 200 hPa and above; Upper damping; Morrison double-moment scheme; New Grell sub-grid scale cumulus scheme; RRTMG atmospheric radiation scheme; RRTMG shortwave scheme; MYNN planetary boundary layer scheme; MYNN surface layer; Noah land surface model; Fractional sea ice.

19. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio PREPBUFR Including synop, metar, ship, buoy, qscat, sound, airep, profiler, pilot, satob, ssmi_retrieval_sea_surface_wind_spee d, ssmi_retrieval_pw Radiances amsua, amsub, mhs Fractional Sea Ice Observational Data for ASR

20. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Domain for ASR

21. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Data Assimilation Result Precipitation ERA Yearly Total 2008, Unit: cm ERA ERA-Interim ASR

22. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Near Surface Variables Statistics The data used for the surface statistics: NCEP FNL (or AVN) ERA-Interim Surface stations (More than 12000 obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and Greenland Climate Network (GC-NET))

23. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Data Assimilation Result: Near Surface Variables Statistics Average statistics from comparing ASR for 2007 with observations. Month Wind Speed2m-Temperature2m-Dew pointSurface pressure bias rmse corr 01 1.32 2.76 0.75 0.24 2.88 0.91 1.57 2.89 0.91 0.34 1.14 0.99 02 1.19 2.61 0.75 0.22 2.78 0.91 1.74 2.97 0.90 0.31 1.10 0.99 03 1.02 2.50 0.75 -0.18 2.95 0.91 1.37 2.80 0.88 0.29 1.10 0.99 04 0.79 2.21 0.75 -0.37 2.79 0.93 0.98 2.48 0.88 0.26 0.97 0.99 05 0.54 2.07 0.72 -0.54 3.03 0.90 0.43 2.30 0.87 0.24 1.02 0.98 06 0.50 1.89 0.72 -0.48 2.96 0.91 0.24 2.08 0.85 0.22 0.97 0.98 07 0.49 1.84 0.71 -0.59 2.88 0.90 0.22 2.04 0.83 0.23 0.96 0.98 08 0.55 1.86 0.72 -0.58 2.75 0.91 0.25 1.91 0.86 0.24 0.94 0.98 09 0.77 2.06 0.74 -0.57 2.62 0.92 0.40 2.01 0.89 0.29 0.96 0.99 10 0.88 2.20 0.74 -0.40 2.59 0.92 0.60 2.06 0.91 0.32 0.99 0.99 11 1.16 2.58 0.74 -0.11 2.71 0.91 1.10 2.50 0.90 0.32 1.05 0.99 12 1.16 2.60 0.75 0.18 2.78 0.90 1.54 2.86 0.90 0.28 1.07 0.99 Average 0.86 2.27 0.74 -0.26 2.81 0.91 0.87 2.41 0.88 0.28 1.02 0.99 Average statistics from comparing AVN for 2007 with observations. MonthWind Speed2m-Temperature2m-Dew pointSurface pressure bias rmse corr 01 0.28 2.30 0.72 -0.41 3.29 0.89 1.35 3.01 0.90 0.16 1.18 0.99 02 0.17 2.15 0.72 -0.77 3.31 0.87 1.32 3.08 0.88 0.15 1.17 0.99 03 -0.03 2.12 0.70 -1.36 3.59 0.87 1.19 3.08 0.85 0.15 1.19 0.99 04 -0.21 2.00 0.69 -1.51 3.60 0.88 0.78 2.98 0.83 0.17 1.07 0.99 05 -0.14 2.03 0.65 -1.19 3.48 0.88 0.12 2.66 0.84 0.12 1.05 0.98 06 -0.13 1.88 0.64 -1.09 3.38 0.87 -0.87 2.70 0.79 0.11 1.02 0.98 07 -0.03 1.85 0.63 -0.93 3.29 0.87 -1.21 2.78 0.76 0.13 1.00 0.98 08 0.08 1.86 0.63 -0.85 3.26 0.86 -1.10 2.64 0.80 0.14 1.01 0.98 09 0.22 2.00 0.66 -0.77 3.15 0.88 -0.41 2.46 0.85 0.12 1.02 0.99 10 0.31 2.01 0.68 -0.60 3.08 0.88 0.37 2.38 0.88 0.07 1.06 0.99 11 0.40 2.22 0.70 -0.21 3.15 0.89 1.18 2.96 0.88 0.10 1.10 0.99 12 0.43 2.24 0.72 -0.10 3.23 0.87 1.86 3.52 0.88 -0.01 1.21 0.99 Average 0.11 2.06 0.68 -0.82 3.32 0.88 0.38 2.85 0.85 0.12 1.09 0.99

24. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Data Assimilation Result 2m Temperature Statistic Differences between ASR (AVN) assimilation and observations in August 2008 ASR correlation -AVN correlation ASR rmse -AVN rmse

25. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Data Assimilation Result 2m Temperature Statistic Differences between ASR (ERA) assimilation and observations in August 2008 ASR correlation -ERA correlation ASR rmse -ERA rmse

26. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Data Assimilation Result 10m Wind Speed Statistic Differences between ASR (AVN) assimilation and observations in August 2008 ASR correlation -AVN correlation ASR rmse -AVN rmse

27. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR Data Assimilation Result 10m Wind Speed Statistic Differences between ASR (ERA) assimilation and observations in August 2008 ASR correlation -ERA correlation ASR rmse -ERA rmse

28. ASR Preliminary Meeting Boulder, Colorado Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Summary A reduced-resolution prototype assimilation for the Arctic for 2007-2008 has been completed. Major progress has been made. The test results look very encouraging, and have being distributed to selected users (16 months). However, still quite some testing to do to optimize ASR, especially the physics, and land surface data assimilation. To engage the community in early ASR evaluation and use, a 10-km, 3-h assimilation is planned to be run for 4 months, and a 30-km (3h) assimilation will be completed for 10 years (2000-2009) by end of 2010. A reduced-resolution prototype assimilation for the Arctic for 2007-2008 has been completed. Major progress has been made. The test results look very encouraging, and have being distributed to selected users (16 months). However, still quite some testing to do to optimize ASR, especially the physics, and land surface data assimilation. To engage the community in early ASR evaluation and use, a 10-km, 3-h assimilation is planned to be run for 4 months, and a 30-km (3h) assimilation will be completed for 10 years (2000-2009) by end of 2010.