Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated."— Presentation transcript:

1 Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Khiem Do October 2009 The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. CEF Conference www.asiapacificfund.com

2 1 Table of Contents Page Section 1:Asian Markets Review2 - 4 Section 2:Global and Asian Investment Outlook 5 - 14

3 Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Section 1 Asian Markets Review

4 3 Asian Markets Market Returns (3 month period to September 30, 2009) Gross return in USD Country - Index (%) North Asia MSCI Korea Free34.5 MSCI Taiwan Free23.1 MSCI Hong Kong Free14.4 MSCI China Free7.9 ASEAN MSCI Indonesia Free38.1 MSCI Thailand Free20.0 MSCI Singapore Free19.4 MSCI Philippines Free15.2 MSCI Malaysia Free14.8 MSCI AC Far East Free Ex Japan Gross19.1 MSCI India Free19.6 Vietnam (HCM Local price index)29.6 Source: Factset, Bloomberg Significant underperformance of China

5 4 Asian Markets Sectoral Returns (3 month period to September 30, 2009) Source: Factset MSCI Information Technology34.3 MSCI Consumer Discretionary30.6 MSCI Materials23.3 MSCI Consumer Staples20.4 MSCI Financials15.4 MSCI Industrials14.2 MSCI Energy14.2 MSCI Health Care13.7 MSCI Utilities9.5 MSCI Real Estate8.0 MSCI Telecommunication Services5.8 Gross return in USD (%) High beta cyclicals outperformed

6 Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Section 2 Investment Outlook & Strategy

7 6 Out of the woods, but …. Is the global economic recovery sustainable ? 1.Aggressive cost-cutting 2.Re-stocking 3.Final demand Global industrial production and final sales Will the world be able to create top line growth on a sustainable basis ? Source: JP Morgan Global Datawatch, 18th September 2009

8 7 Debt de-leveraging Uncertain US consumption trend US households getting poorer, and spending less US household net worth and owners’ equity in real estate 1 US consumer credit growth 2 Source 1: Federal Reserve (Flow of Funds Accounts) CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, Greed & Fear, 13 August 2009 Source 2: Federal Reserve, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, Greed & Fear, 10th September 2009

9 8 Chinese Economy: Long-term trend Climbing the growth “S-curve” Average change in consumption Across 17 categories in 23 markets between 1972 and 2008 (GDP/capita 5K US$ =100) China 90 110 130 150 170 190 500060007000800090001000011000 GDP per capita EM average change in consumption Across 16 categories from 1986 to 2008 (GDP/capita 5K US$ =100) China 90 130 170 210 250 290 330 500060007000800090001000011000 GDP per capita Source: Nomura (August 2009) “Explosive” sustainable growth expected in consumption, once GDP/capita exceeds US$ 6,000

10 9 Chinese Economy: Short-term Trend Growth is bouncing back nicely Property 1 Automobile sales volume 2 Power Generation Growth 3 Cyclical correction is over, back to business as usual … Source 1: CEIC, Credit Suisse Source 2: CEIC, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse Source 3: China Electricity Council and Citi Investment Research as at July 2009

11 10 When Will the PBOC Tighten Monetary Policy ? Key monitors Source: JP Morgan China Consumer Prix Index (9/2009) JP Morgan China Import & Export Growth (7/2009) China Inflation Still in deflationary zone China Import & Export Growth: Bottoming out, but still weak PBOC unlikely to tighten aggressively, until annual inflation exceeds 4% and export growth becomes positive

12 11 Asian Equities – Investor’s Sentiment Aversion or appetite ? Source: Citi (September 2009) Risk appetite still rising, but not at euphoric levels yet !

13 12 Global & Asian Equities Growth forecasts and valuations Source: JP Morgan (10/2009) P/E (x) Div. Yield (X) P/BV (x)Earning growth (%) Country Current Trailing 12m fwd Current Trailing 20082009E2010E Global *15.414.22.71.8-26.8-19.720.0 USA *24.515.22.02.1-18.3-11.820.9 EMF Asia16.914.12.1 -30.95.823.4 China15.913.42.52.2-12.78.521.6 India20.117.21.13.1-1.14.221.0 *Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. US trailing PE is calculated as per reported earnings. For all other markets and sectors, forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and I/B/E/S estimates for the rest. Companies with different yearends are calendarised to December yearends and are free float adjusted for aggregation. Historical numbers are from MSCI. China and Asia are well placed to grow earnings sustainably, although good news in India appear to be fully priced

14 13 Asian Markets Valuation In the middle of long-term historical valuation range Source: Citi (10/2009) Global search for sustainable growth and low interest rates may drive Asian markets to expensive levels Asia ex Japan trailing P/BV band

15 14 Financial Dictionary East (can do) versus West (discuss and set up a steering committee) * Source: Barings (10/2009) Proverb In the West In the East * One swallow does not make … call health and safety …… breed more swallows a summer … Many a slip between cup … set up a support group,… get a straw and lip... arrange counselling … The horse has bolted …… we’ll never recover, … buy 5 more horses arrange counselling … A problem aired is a problem …… group, reach out to other … dealt with, halved, support groups… move on Two wrongs …… do not make a right …… but 3 left turns do … !! We remain bullish on Asia economies’ and equity markets’ long-term prospects

16 15 Important Information This document is provided as a service to professional investors/advisers. It is issued in the United Kingdom by Baring Asset Management Limited and/or by its investment adviser affiliates in other jurisdictions. The affiliate serving as the Asia Pacific Fund’s investment adviser is Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited. In the United Kingdom this document is issued only to persons falling within a permitted category under (i) the FSA’s rules made under section 238(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and (ii) the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. This is not an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell any investment referred to in this document. Baring Asset Management group companies, their affiliates and/or their directors, officers and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable but no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given as to their accuracy or completeness. This document may include forward-looking statements, which are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections as of the date on the cover hereof. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. Compensation arrangements under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom will not be available. Private investors in the Company referred to herein should obtain their own independent financial advise before making investments. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in the Company, we recommend that all relevant documents, such as reports and accounts and prospectus should be read, which specify the particular risks associated with investment in the Company, together with any specific restrictions applying and the basis of dealing. The Company may not be available for investment in all jurisdictions. There may also be prohibitions or restrictions on distribution of this document and other material relating to the Company and accordingly recipients of any such documents are advised to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions. Research Material Baring Asset Management only produces research for its own internal use. Where details of research are provided in this document it is provided as an example of research undertaken by Baring Asset Management and must not be used, or relied upon, for the purposes of any investment decisions. The information and opinions expressed herein may change at anytime. For data sourced from Morningstar: © 2008 Morningstar, Inc. all rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Ensure Complied Date is added at foot of Disclosure Complied (Boston): October 19 2009 Disclosure for presentations to PUBLIC


Download ppt "Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google