1. INDUS RIVER BASIN INITIATIVE A new approach to a better understanding of the climatic-hydrologic system of HKH 2nd TPE-Workshop Kathmandu, 26-28 Oct. 2010 Matthias WINIGER Dpt. Geography, Univ. of Bonn, Germany

2. ? Indus River Basin: Water scarcity: a frightening perspective ?

4. Dynamics of Glaciers in the HKH-Ranges: Contrasting Research Findings! Rasul G. et al, 2008: Global Warming and melting glaciers along southern Slopes of HKH: Siachen Glacier retreated 2 km and lost 17% of its volume (1989-2007) Immerzeel W.W. et al, 2008: Upper Indus Basin, 2000-2005: P<R  Melting glaciers? Schmidt S. & Nüsser M., 2009: Raikot Glacier (Nanga Parbat): only minor changes and fluctuations. Hewitt K, 1998: Advancing glaciers  Recent Glacier Surges in the Karakorum and Himalaya  specific situation in the Karakorum? Archer D.R., 2003: Contrasting hydrological regimes in the upper Indus Basin Fowler H.J.&Archer D.R., 2006: Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin (downward temperature trend and thickening of glaciers  K. Hewitt) Thompson L.G. et al, 2000: Ice cores  Monsoon and glaciation

5. Annual variations of glacier terminus in the Himalaya and Karakorum Hewitt 1967; Mayewski and Jeschke 1979; Negi 1991; Dobhal, Kumar et al. 1995; Bhutiyani 1999; Hewitt 2005; Kulkarni et al. 2002; Kulkarni et al. 2005; Anthwal, Joshi et al. 2006; Kulkarni, Bahuguna et al. 2007; Shroder, Bishop et al. 2007; Smiraglia, Mayer et al. 2007; Dobhal, Gergan et al. 2008; Fujita, Suzuki et al. 2008; Ganjoo 2008; Bhambri and Bolch 2009; Schmidt and Nüsser 2009; UNEP 2009; WWF 2005, WGMS 2009 Annual change of terminus in m/a Stable: +5/-5 m/a Slight retreat : -5/-20 m/a Stronger retreat: > 20 m/a (M. Nüsser et al, 2010)

6. PF ? PF Melting Permafrost N ? Drifting Snow, Avalanches ? Ablation?

7. Meteorological Model Inputs Example: Comparison of areal rainfall totals (mm/y) Perimeter: 35°-37° N / 72°-75°30‘ E (~ map perimeter of Weiers, 1995) Different length of observation periods 1.Weiers, 1995:790 mm 2.GPCC, 2010:350 mm 3.Pak.Met.Dpt, 1985:440 mm 4.Pak.Met.Dpt, 2010:367 mm 5.Reanalyse Data Mid troposphere, 2009:235 mm ? Total Runoff HBV3-ETH9

8. cio-hydrol Glacio-hydrological regimes in the Himalaya (after Thayyen, R., Gergan, J., 2010) (Draft: S. Jagodzinski, F. Stenglein, 2010)

9. Batura Glacier, September 2009 (Winiger)

10. (Winiger, 2002)

11. (K. Hewitt, 2006)(Winiger,M., Gumpert,M, Yamout,H., 2005) Snowfall by Altitude % Accumulation (area x precipitation) Portion of Runoff from Melting Snow (Hunza River), 1991 Derived from satellite & groundbased data, SMR

12. Precipitation reconstruction for northern Pakistan, long-term precipitation variations and temperature for different regions in the northern hemisphere: a: Treydte et al 2006 b: Sheppard et al 2004 c: Anderson et al, 2002 d: Cook et al, 2004 e: Wilson et al, 2005 f: Temperature reconstructions (red) western central Asia, Esper et al, 2006 (blue) Northern hemisphere, Mann et al, 1999 (black) Northern hemisphere, Esper et al, 2002 (green) Northern hemisphere, Moberg et al, 2005 Source: Treydte et al, 2006

13. 1. International Workshop on the Indus River Basin ICIMOD, Kathmandu, July 2-4, 2010 From a regional nucleus to a transboundary interdisciplinary research concept on hydro-climatic conditions and environmental resources of the Upper Indus River Basin A P I C

14. Assessing and modelling hydroclimatic conditions along vertical and regional gradients in the Upper Indus Basin and Sub-basins: 1. Questions:  Synoptic systems and regional climate?  What are rainfall, melting snow, melting glaciers and melting permafrost contributing to runoff?  How sensitive does the hydroclimatic system react to climate change?  Impact of black soot?  What impact on runoff do vegetation cover and land-use systems have? 2. Approaches:  Theoretical models, field experiments, remote sensing/GIS, scenarios  Monitoring programmes 3. Indus River Basin Decade:  Interdisciplinary, international research decade in the Upper Indus River Basin  Implementation in phases

15. Steps from an initial idea to a feasible concept ICIMOD Indus Subcatchment- Project 1. Workshop on Indus River Basin ICIMOD Conclusions 1-pager Expert-Group Draft „Indus River Basin Decade“ Concept „Indus River Basin Decade“ 2. Workshop on Indus River Basin ICIMOD (Inception Workshop) 2008/09 2.-4.7.2010 Kathmandu III-2011 VII-2011 IX-2010 X-2010