1. kvr&rsd/0903061 Regional Variations in Sectorwise GSDP K.V.Raju and R.S.Deshpande Institute for Social and Economic Change Bangalore Email: kvraju@isec.ac.in and deshpande@isec.ac.inkvraju@isec.ac.indeshpande@isec.ac.in

2. kvr&rsd/0903062 Researchers are increasingly finding that Long Term growth function is closer to ‘hyperbolic’ than an ‘exponential’ function. Difference between exponential and hyperbolic growth function is due to ‘dynamic inconsistency’ Methodology: ‘hyperbolic’ growth function

3. kvr&rsd/0903063. Hyperbolic compounding is a gradually increasing function where the degree of compounding is inversely proportional to time ‘ t ’, qualified by degree of time preference ‘  ’, as given. If Present value t = Future value / [1 +  t] (r/  ),, Future value = Present value t [1 +  t] (r/  ) Where t = time, r = interest rate and  = intensity of time preference, varying between 0 and 1, with 0 representing low or no time preference and 1 representing high time preference.

4. kvr&rsd/0903064. if there is no time preference, present value = future value and if time preference is 1, hyperbolic growth function is same as exponential growth funtion. As time t is not exponential expression in ‘ hyperbolic ’ growth function, the degree of compounding in ‘ hyperbolic ’ is lower than in ‘ exponential ’ method. Thus, the higher the value of , lower is the difference between estimated values obtained in the near and distant future. The lower the value of , wider is the difference between estimated values obtained in the near and distant future. Due to hyperbolic function present values fall less drastically compared to exponentially estimated values as the growth rate is weighted by alpha, the parameter, indicating degree of time preference.

5. kvr&rsd/0903065 Alpha value should be near to zero and growth rate should be high in the beginning but alpha value should be near to one and growth rate should be low in the future periods. The crux of this method thus is in choosing the alpha value. The base line data (1997-98) used for the water use projections are from NCIWRD. The 1997-98 base line data on water use for different uses from NCIWRD are projected for 2010, 2025 and 2050 using hyperbolic compounding. The values of alpha and growth rates used in projections are given.

6. kvr&rsd/0903066 Water use for Agriculture Yeart  r 2010130.0120.02 2025280.01250.025 2050530.0130.03 Water use for domestic purposes Yeart  r 2010130.02 2025280.030.025 2050530.060.03

7. kvr&rsd/0903067 Water use for industrial purposes Yeart  r 2010130.0250.07 2025280.030.05 2050530.060.04 Water use for other purposes Yeart  r 2010130.0250.07 2025280.030.05 2050530.90.04

8. kvr&rsd/0903068 Region-wise Ranking of Major States Based on GSDP Agriculture sector Region 1994-952000-20012005-20062010-20112015-20162020-20212024-2025 North Uttar Pradesh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Punjab7666666 Haryana1211 12 Himachal Pradesh17 West Maharashtra 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 Gujarat61255556 Madhya Pradesh81077 11 Rajasthan10988799 East Bihar 11 8 10 10 9 7 7 West Bengal4522222 Orissa14 1314 Assam15 Jharkhand16 141312 10 South Andhra Pradesh 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Karnataka9499888 Tamil Nadu5712 13 Kerala13 16

9. kvr&rsd/0903069 GSDP from Primary Sector Based Region-wise Major States Rankings Region 1994-952000-20012005-20062010-20112015-20162020-20212024-2025 North Uttar Pradesh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Punjab10688779 Haryana12 Himachal Pradesh17 West Maharashtra 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 Gujarat51155556 Madhya Pradesh696681011 Rajasthan91077667 East Bihar 11 8 10 10 10 9 8 West Bengal4433332 Orissa14131413 Assam151615 Jharkhand16141311 85 South Andhra Pradesh 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 Karnataka859991110 Tamil Nadu771114 Kerala131516

10. kvr&rsd/09030610 GSDP from Secondary Sector Based Region-wise Major States Rankings Region 1994-952000-20012005-20062010-20112015-20162020-20212024-2025 North Uttar Pradesh 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Punjab10 111213 Haryana11 10 Himachal Pradesh181715 16 Delhi12 11 West Maharashtra 2 2 2 8 8 8 7 Gujarat4432211 Madhya Pradesh9987776 Rajasthan8899999 East Bihar 17 15 16 17 17 17 17 West Bengal6675444 Orissa15161819 Assam16181718 Jharkhand14 13 12 South Andhra Pradesh 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 Karnataka7753333 Tamil Nadu3344568 Kerala13 14 15

11. kvr&rsd/09030611 Region 1994-952000-20012005-20062010-20112015-20162020-20212024-2025 North Uttar Pradesh 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 Punjab13 Haryana14 12 11 10 Himachal Pradesh18 Delhi8888765 West Maharashtra 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Gujarat6677888 Madhya Pradesh1011 12 Rajasthan9910 11 East Bihar 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 West Bengal5433333 Orissa15 Assam16 Jharkhand17 South Andhra Pradesh 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Karnataka7765444 Tamil Nadu3344556 Kerala111099999 GSDP from Tertiary Sector Based Region-wise Major States Rankings

12. kvr&rsd/09030612 GSDP (all Sectors-Total) Based Rankings of Major States Region 1994-952000-20012005-20062010-20112015-20162020-20212024-2025 North Uttar Pradesh 2 2 2 4 6 7 8 Punjab10 1113 Haryana1314131211 Himachal Pradesh18 Delhi1411109886 West Maharashtra 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Gujarat5643333 Madhya Pradesh89910 Rajasthan9888999 East Bihar 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 West Bengal6532222 Orissa15 16 Assam17 Jharkhand16 15 South Andhra Pradesh 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 Karnataka7777544 Tamil Nadu3366767 Kerala1112 1112

13. kvr&rsd/09030613 GSDP from agriculture sector

14. kvr&rsd/09030614 GSDP from Primary Sector

15. kvr&rsd/09030615 GSDP from secondary sector

16. kvr&rsd/09030616 GSDP from tertiary sector

17. kvr&rsd/09030617 GSDP from all sectors-total

18. kvr&rsd/09030618 GSDP from secondary sector-major states

19. kvr&rsd/09030619 GSDP from Primary sector-major states

20. kvr&rsd/09030620 Water Use Components Boiler and Cooling Paper Pulp and Processing Beverages and Food processing Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Textiles, Jute fiber, Wool Silk etc Repair and Services Washing, Cleaning, Solvent

21. kvr&rsd/09030621

22. kvr&rsd/09030622

23. kvr&rsd/09030623 Highest Water Consuming States {Water Use in Proportion to the} Density of Units Fixed Capital Invested Material Consumed Workers Density Tamil nadu Maharashtra Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Karnataka West Bengal Gujarat Maharashtra TamilNadu Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Gujarat TamilNadu Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Haryana UttarPradesh Tamil nadu Maharashtra Gujarat West Bengal Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Haryana

24. kvr&rsd/09030624 Category of Industry Water Requirem ent m3/tonne s/yr/yr Waste Water Generatio n m3/tonne Product on in 1000 tonnes Water Req. Mm3/yr 1997 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2000 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2010 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2025 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2050 Integrated Iron and Steel2215119.392626.583829.15837.76012.612035.1 Smelters82.56517411.716.7624.1432.3144.35 Petrochemicals and Refinery17131.25521.3423.4730.6137.7655.61 Chemicals-Causic Soda5.511459.38.038.6510.212.6719.07 Textil and Jute200150 24730. 24863.02 8153.7 219018.7836701.446923.5

25. kvr&rsd/09030625 Category of Industry Water Require ment m3/tonn es/yr/yr Waste Water Generati on m3/tonn e Product on in 1000 tonnes Water Req. Mm3/yr 1997 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2000 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2010 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2025 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2050 Pharmaceuticals25NA4190104.75124209.25276.15429.15 Distillary (Req.per 1000 litres)2212 1790. 8 3939.7 6 6357. 266.313185203.92 Pesticides6.55863.786.671.994.828.38 Paper and Pulp2001753100852.5 1259. 52071024019490 General Engineering2.21755779 1271.3 8 1433. 223.6627.8255.63 Total--- 15282. 9 24482.9732229.13 69768. 77 102535. 75

26. kvr&rsd/09030626 Category of Industry Water Require ment m3/tonn es/yr/yr Waste Water Generati on m3/tonn e Product on in 1000 tonnes Water Req. Mm3/yr 1997 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2000 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2010 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2025 Water Req. Mm3/yr 2050 Cement4.5NA76418599.5985.51777.53370.5 Fertilizer16.73.5 11155. 3147.51220.11630.961105.091192.75 Leather Products3028912.530.12 1244.6 565.7493.08147.83 Rubber6.65403.242.663.044.36.419.54 Food Processing6.8NA96.45848.76991.763441.829442.76 12298.3 2 Inorganic Chemicals20042.296.8165.4416003346615.2 Sugar2.20.414.536.2146.271.17334.4636.9

27. kvr&rsd/09030627 Work Needed Basin wise Industrial Growth Water Demand in the Regional Perspective Choice of Right Methodology

28. kvr&rsd/09030628 Service sector

29. kvr&rsd/09030629 ScenarioYear 2010 Year 2025 Year 2050 Low Demand – Total 425590 Surface Water233048 Ground Water192542 High Demand – Total 4362111 Surface Water243665 Ground Water192646. National Water Requirements for Domestic &Municipal Use (Quantity in km 3 )

30. kvr&rsd/09030630 TWO PROBLEMS first, the availability of data on exact water use in different components of the service sector is quite fragmentary. Second, this is a sector is changing extremely rapidly and has location, both in peri-urban as well as in rural areas. That makes the best sensible assumptions fragile.

31. kvr&rsd/09030631 Normative Approach Various std suggested for estimating water requirement for human use. Gleick (1997) estimated 50 lpcd as the basic human need. WHO suggested a target of 200-lpcd in urban areas CPHEEO prescribed norms of 70-200 lpcd for urban areas Different factors affect water use in rural and urban areas especially in service sector. include population size of a habitat, economic status, commercial and manufacturing activities.

32. kvr&rsd/09030632 Contd … The Eighth Five Year Plan (1992-97) adopted the following norms : a) 125 lpcd for urban areas where piped water supply and underground sewerage system are available. b) 70 lpcd for urban areas provided with piped water supply but without underground sewerage. c)4 lpcd for towns with spot-sources/stand posts with one standpost for 200 families with a maximum walking distance of 10 metres.

33. kvr&rsd/09030633 Assessment of Domestic Water Requirement Scenario Population and rate of urbanization High Water Requirement Population as per Visaria & Visaria and high rate of urbanization Low Water Requirement Population as per UN low variant and low rate of urbanization

34. kvr&rsd/09030634 Sl. No. ReferenceAll India Population in Year 200020102016202020252050 1Natarajan (1993)* 1020.51183.1 1301 2United Nations – 1994 Revision ** a. Low variant 1013.51156.6 1249.71286.31345.9 b. Middle Variant 10221189 1327.113921640 c. High Variant 1030.51221.7 1406.11501.51980 3Registrar General of India(1996) # 99711621263.5 4Visaria & Visaria 1966## 9951146 13331581

35. kvr&rsd/09030635 Norms for Domestic Water Supply at Different Points of Time (in lpcd) Population Type Assumed Depth of Irrigation or “Delta” Year 2010 Year 2025 Year 2050 Class I Cities220 Other than Class I Cities 150165220 Rural5570150

36. kvr&rsd/09030636 Bovine Water Requirement Bovine population growth rate @ 0.5 %/yr while keeping in view the carrying capacity of the system and likely stress on natural resources. Norms between 18 to 30 lpcd/animal assumed. NCIWRD estimated water requirement for bovine population as 4.8 km 3, 5.2 km 3 and 5.9 km 3 for the years 2010, 2025 and 2050 respectively, This is included in the total water requirement.

37. kvr&rsd/09030637 Water Requirement for Power Development Consumptive 4.48 m 3 /hour/MW or 3.92 Mm 3 /year/100 MW Non-consumptive 1.32 m 3 /hour/MW or 1.15 Mm 3 /year/100 MW

38. kvr&rsd/09030638 Total Water Requirement (km 3 /Year) 201020252050 Low Scena rio High Scenario Low Scenari o High Scena rio Low Scenari o High Scen ario 1Thermal2.813.437.859.5928.7135.07 2Hydropow er 15.00 22.00 30.00 3Nuclear0.290.361.131.383.684.50 4Solar/Win d 0.00 0.01 0.04 5Gas based0.02 0.060.070.180.22 Total18.118.831.133.162.669.8

39. kvr&rsd/09030639 Assumptions Service sector is one of the fastest growing sector in Indian economy. Likely to sustain this growth rate to 2025. After 2025, likely to decelerate due to high-density in the sector. Urbanisation process likely to be slow. Main issue in water demand for service sector is the quality of water and its use in the peri-urban areas. Related issue is water treatment in the service sector, and specifically for the domestic consumption purposes. Modern technology plants for water treatment. Service sector largely depends on GW.

40. kvr&rsd/09030640 Water use Projections for contract farming in different states of India States Area under contract farming (acres) in 2000 Water use for irrigation (acre inches) Water use for irrigation in Billion Cubic Meters in 2000 (BCM or KM 3 ) Projections of water use based on compound growth rate of 5 percent in BCM (or KM 3 ) in 201020252050 Karnataka206243131250.032214350.05247380.1090890.369415 Maharashtra332956158154101.62709182.65036115.5099118.65851 Madhya Pradesh2964444600.004574050.00745060.0154890.052452 Punjab24700067925000.698813441.13829352.366438.013573 Tamil Nadu4520124302.80.012788290.02083080.0433060.146648 Uttaranchal5000750000.007716010.01256860.0261290.088483 Haryana5000750000.007716010.01256860.0261290.088483 Andra Pradesh568108521500.087669320.14280410.2968791.005339 Orissa177844890600.050314570.08195710.1703830.576977 Rajasthan19.76296.43.0494E-054.967E-050.0001030.00035 West Bengal49.47417.6234E-050.00012420.0002580.000874 India692727.76245820452.529004564.11948198.56410729.00111

41. kvr&rsd/09030641 All-India Area, Percentage under irrigation of selected agricultural products for which contract farming exists/ can be encouraged 1991-92 to 2004-05 AREA UNDER CULTIVATION% COVERAGE UNDER IRRIGATION Year WheatTomatoChilliGroundnutPotatoCottonBarleySafflowerWheatGroundnutCotton 1991-9223.260.290.858.671.037.660.950.5083.719.133.3 1995-9625.010.350.887.521.119.040.820.6885.818.135.0 2000-0125.730.460.846.561.228.530.780.4288.117.634.3 2001-0226.340.460.886.241.219.130.670.4087.417.334.0 2002-0325.200.540.835.941.357.670.700.37 88.0(P )16.5(P)33.1(P) 2003-0426.580.540.766.001.287.630.660.35NA 2004- 05*26.49NA 6.69NA8.92NA 2025 $ 60.571.231.7313.672.9217.391.500.80 2050 $ 161.473.284.6236.457.7846.354.012.13

42. kvr&rsd/09030642 States Number of Licensed Units Under FPO in 2000 Growth rate in water use Total water requirement per year Projected water use in billion cubic meters in 201020252050 Andhra Pradesh3670.0650.321130.603891.557327.55238 Assam290.0370.025380.036590.063340.15810 Bihar630.0270.055130.071920.107180.20840 Chandigarh570.1380.049880.181571.2611931.89187 Delhi3200.0440.280000.429580.816362.38014 Goa1680.0290.147000.194830.297290.60123 Gujarat3330.0700.291380.570591.563618.39078 Haryana1720.0290.150500.200250.307340.62762 Himachal Pradesh1060.0440.092750.142790.272760.80213 Jammu and Kashmir880.0140.077000.088730.109770.15650 Karnataka3220.0570.281750.491131.130334.53469 Kerala4480.0530.392000.656141.420915.15049 Maharashtra10470.0400.916131.358922.455006.57883 Madhya Pradesh1120.0290.098000.130670.201170.41297 Orissa480.1690.042000.199882.07512102.52706 Punjab3630.1530.317631.3242711.27370400.14587 Rajasthan1220.0510.106750.175200.368391.27128 Tamil Nadu182-0.0750.159250.072770.022480.00317 Uttar Pradesh5410.0430.473380.723771.368363.95544 West Bengal3340.0410.292250.435350.791532.14380 Others*710.0680.062130.120450.325201.70226 India52930.0404.631386.8647812.3880133.13547 Projected use of water for Food processing industries in different states of India

43. kvr&rsd/09030643 Thank you Suggestions are most welcome