1. The Impact of Training Programme Type and Duration on the Employment Chances of the Unemployed in Ireland Group 5: Niall Cassidy, David Murphy Friday, 2 December 2011 1

2. About the Study ESRI Working Paper, Sept. 2011, Seamus McGuinness et al. Purpose of paper: an attempt to evaluate the impact of a range of government sponsored courses on unemployment levels in Ireland. Challenging context for policy-makers now: Challenging context for policy-makers now: –Huge demand for retraining (Irl UE: <5% 2007 to 14% 2011; plus long term UE: 53.9% of total). –Lack of financing to support. Therefore, need to ensure effective use of available finances Therefore, need to ensure effective use of available finances 2

3. Examples of Types of Training Examples of Types of Training Job search training: how to submit applications & do interviews. Job search training: how to submit applications & do interviews. General training: e.g. European Computer Driver License. General training: e.g. European Computer Driver License. Specific training: Specific training: –Low level: Introduction to Warehousing –Medium level: Computerised Accounts & Payroll –High level: Computer-Aided Draughting & Design 3

4. Dataset Researchers used a unique dataset (Live Register database, FÁS files, two separate Dept Social Protection datasets). Researchers used a unique dataset (Live Register database, FÁS files, two separate Dept Social Protection datasets). Control group allowed effective isolation of the impact of training. Control group allowed effective isolation of the impact of training. Tracks cohort over two years to evaluate impact. Tracks cohort over two years to evaluate impact. Key treatment sample of 764 individuals. Key treatment sample of 764 individuals. 4

5. Overall Findings of the Study (1) Strong Positive effects for: –Job-search skills training –Medium-to-high level skills courses More modest effects for: –General vocational skills (skills not demanded in market) Less consistent effects for: –Low skills training Shorter training courses had more positive effect (with the exception of high-skill courses) due to the “lock-in effect”. 5

6. Overall Findings of the Study (2) After training the likelihood of exiting unemployment by 21 months positively related to: 3 rd level qualification; own transport; willingness to move; high earning spouse, history of employment. After training the likelihood of exiting unemployment by 21 months positively related to: 3 rd level qualification; own transport; willingness to move; high earning spouse, history of employment. Lowered by: dependent children, history of long- term unemployment, numeracy/literacy problems. Lowered by: dependent children, history of long- term unemployment, numeracy/literacy problems. Overall: training increased participants' likelihood of no longer being UE in June 2008 by 11% (3% for every ten weeks training undertaken) Overall: training increased participants' likelihood of no longer being UE in June 2008 by 11% (3% for every ten weeks training undertaken) 6

7. Analysis 7 But only 8 per cent of trainees participated in the highly effective jobs search training. And only 4 per cent did high level specific skills training. Over two-thirds of all training days were spent in much less effective low skills or general training which had only modest effects. BIG PICTURE: Scare Resources are being wasted on the wrong types of training!