1. Early Childhood Poverty and Adult Attainment Greg J. Duncan University of California, Irvine The National Forum on Early Childhood Policy and Programs

2. Poverty rate for children < 6 years old

3. My talk: Does poverty compromise children’s life chances? How would adult outcomes change in response to a policy that boosted poor children’s family income, but did not directly change any other characteristic of their parents or family environments?

4. A Process Model Early childhood poverty Purchased inputs Cognitive stimulation in the home Type and quality of child care Quality of schools and neighborhood Family processes Maternal mental health Parenting Child Achievement, Behavior and Health Early brain development Adult Achievement, Behavior and Health

5. The Empirical Model Early childhood poverty Adult Achievement, Behavior and Health

6. Adult Outcomes (up to age 37)  Completed schooling  Labor market earnings and hours  Welfare income receipt  Health  Arrest and incarceration  Out of wedlock child bearing

7. Data and Sample  Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), 1968-2006  Children born between 1968 and 1975  Adult outcomes measured between ages 25 and as late as age 37 for the earliest cohort  Income measured prenatal to age 15; demographic controls measured around or before birth

8. Associations with childhood income Unadjusted Schooling.34* Earnings.31* Work hours.15* Poor Health-.13* Arrests-.17* Nonmarital birth -.38*

9. Associations with childhood income, without and with adjustments for parent schooling, etc. UnadjustedAdjusted Schooling.34*.14* Earnings.31*.23* Work hours.15*.11* Poor Health-.13*-.02 Arrests-.17*-.09 Nonmarital birth -.38*-.26*

10. Adult attainment and early-childhood income Early-childhood income

11. Regression model Adult outcome = f ( Prenatal to age 5 income + Age 6-10 income + Age 11-15 income + Prenatal demographic controls )

12. Increase in adult earnings associated with a $3,000 annual increase in income

13. Norwegian replication: adult earnings

14. Increase in adult work hours associated with a $3,000 annual increase in income

15. Statistically significant effects EarningsWork hours Prenatal to age 5 <$25,000p<.05p<.01 >$25,000p<.01p<.05 Age 10-15 <$25,000ns >$25,000ns

16. Statistically significant effects EarningsWork hours Food stamps Prenatal to age 5 <$25,000p<.05p<.01p<.05 >$25,000p<.01p<.05ns Age 10-15 <$25,000ns p<.05 >$25,000ns

17. Statistically significant effects EarningsWork hours Food stamps Poor health ArrestsOW Birth Prenatal to age 5 <$25,000p<.05p<.01p<.05ns >$25,000p<.01p<.05ns Age 10-15 <$25,000ns p<.05ns >$25,000ns p<.05p<.01

18. Policy considerations  Earnings coefficients imply:  $3,000 increase in income for 7 years between prenatal and 5 th birthday year is associated with:  17% higher adult earnings  152 more work hours per year  Concentrate income transfers (e.g., ETIC, child tax credit) on the p-5 periods?