1. NSF Program Update Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory Committee 12 October 2006

2. Update Topics Division Overview Division Overview FY2006 Budget Overview FY2006 Budget Overview FY2007 Request FY2007 Request Grants program Grants program Major facility projects Major facility projects Senior Review Senior Review

3. Division Overview Organizational re-alignment Organizational re-alignment  Facilities and MREFC projects (C. Foltz)  Mid-scale projects and infrastructure (V. Pankonin)  Individual Investigator programs (N. Sharp)

4. FY2006 Appropriation - NSF request ($198.64m) + ~1% increase for R&RA Rescission of 1.28% - resulting AST budget ~$199.65M (relative to $195.1M in FY2005) Increases for Physics of the Universe and facilities stewardship (MPS priorities) ‘recommended’ $51.4M budget for NRAO - $4M over request - had to be found within existing program budgets Astronomy Division Budget - FY2006

5. Facilities - $122 M NOAO, NSO, NAIC - Level with FY2005 budget (less rescission) NRAO: +$4M directed Gemini: +$3M - next generation instrumentation (Aspen) UROs: -$2M Astronomy Research & Instrumentation - $77.6 M Increase directed primarily toward Physics of the Universe ATI program new awards curtailed as source of funds for NRAO earmark Included $4M for LSST and $2M for GSMT TDP Included ‘cyberinfrastructure’ funds for NVO start (delayed) Astronomy Division Budget - FY2006

6. Astronomy Research & Instrumentation - $77.6 M Individual Investigator programs within AST AAG - ~ 43% Instrumentation (ATI, TSIP, TDP) - ~20% Special programs and MPS priorities (e.g., AAPF, REU, CAREER, POU) - ~ 18% NSF-wide programs and priorities (e.g. ADVANCE, IGERT, CI) - ~ 15% Science & Technology Centers (STC) - ~5%  Center for Adaptive Optics (CfAO)

7. FY2007 Request for AST $215.11M (FY2006 + 7.7% or $15.5M) Facilities base operations budgets held level pending outcome of senior review Increases for: - GSMT ($5M, up $3M) - TSIP ($4M, up $2M) - AODP ($1.5M, restored) - Physics of the Universe activities enhanced - Elementary Particle Physics - dark energy, dark matter studies (with Physics Division) - Research grants programs up overall - Gemini future instrumentation FY2007 Budget Request

8. Facilities NOAO NSO Gemini 1 NRAO NAIC UROs AST Facilities Budget $24.55 M $10.0M $18.18 M $50.74 M $10.46 M $8.0 M FY2006 $122 M FY2007 req $125M $24.55 M $10.0 M $20.0 M $50.74M $10.46 M $9.0 M 1 Includes $1M Chilean buy-back

9. American Competitiveness Initiative NSF, NIST and DOE Office of Science selected to participate Overall goal to double combined budgets in 10 years Not clear how individual agencies or programs will be affected Supports ‘innovation-enabling research’ (nanotechnology, advanced networking and IT, materials science …. and physical science) Strengthens K-12 math and science education (targeted programs) FY2007 Budget Request

10. MPS by Division

11. MPS Ten-Year Funding History

13. AST Grants Programs Trends in AAG program   Has grown significantly in past 6 years Number of proposals Budget Success rate (until recently) Typical award size   But proposal pressure is increasing rapidly Research grants proposals up 20% in FY2006 (following 15% increase in FY2005) Budget is not increasing to keep pace   substantial decreases in success rate to ~24% in FY2006, and this possible only because used POU-tagged money and CI-tagged money to fund proposals to AAG.

14. AAG Program Evolution FY1996-2006

15. AAG Program Evolution FY1995-2006

16. Major Facility Projects

17. ALMA Project All three developed regions of the world are participating: All three developed regions of the world are participating:  Americas: North America (US, Canada) + Chile [Host Country]  Europe: through European Southern Observatory (ESO)  Asia: (Japan + Taiwan) [Managed outside the core bilateral project] Key features Key features  Radio telescope array – core of 50 12-meter telescopes  Sensitive, precision imaging between 30 and 950 GHz  Located in Chile; high (5000 meters), dry site Key science capabilities Key science capabilities  Image proto-planetary disks  Image galaxies to z = 10, Milky Way to z = 3 10-100 times more sensitive and 10-100 times better angular resolution compared to current mm/submm telescopes 10-100 times more sensitive and 10-100 times better angular resolution compared to current mm/submm telescopes

18. Rebaselined cost and schedule Timing: Timing:  Rebaselining planned since full project was initiated (2/03)  Timing dependent on development of partnership and JAO  Began late 2004, new baseline(s) delivered to ALMA Board September 2005 Why: Why:  Partnerships not fully formed when construction was initiated  Complexity – and cost – of partnership of equals not clearly understood  Management system for common elements of project not fully developed Early concerns: Early concerns:  Period of rapid increase in commodity prices, and costs in Chile  Antennas much more expensive than initially estimated by project and vendors  Project Management Control System required

19. Overview of Rebaselined U.S. Cost and Schedule: 50-element ALMA U.S. Cost U.S. Cost  Total rebaselined cost: $499M  +45% increase  Original: $344M  Rebaselined cost: $478M  Additional contingency: $18M + $3M Cost Containment Cost Containment  Scope reduction: 64 to 50 antennas  New partner likely  Manage contingency Schedule Schedule  Original Completion: 2011  Revised Completion: U.S. and ESO both spent out in FY 2012

20. Rebaselined Costs Main Initial Results: Main Initial Results:  Antenna number must be reduced in order to control costs  U.S. cost for a 50-element array grew by about 40% relative to original estimate  Schedule to complete is not greatly delayed (due to reduced antenna number)  Additional cost savings proposed to ALMA Board (subsequently approved)  Early science will slip

21. FY2007 Request MREFC Runout

22. FY 2007 Request MREFC Runout – ALMA Impact?

23. Advanced Technology Solar Telescope  NSF Director moved to ‘readiness’ phase in March 2006 Environmental Impact study underway Environmental Impact study underway Partnerships with Air Force and international communities under discussion Partnerships with Air Force and international communities under discussion AST continues to provide funding (~$2M) within NSO AST continues to provide funding (~$2M) within NSO PDR scheduled for late October 2006, prerequisite for inclusion in future budget submission PDR scheduled for late October 2006, prerequisite for inclusion in future budget submission Earliest likely entry to MREFC account is FY2009 Earliest likely entry to MREFC account is FY2009

24. VERITAS  Draft Environmental Assessment completed in Nov 2005 Environmental monitoring continues Environmental monitoring continues Consultation with Tohono O’odham ongoing, response to mitigation proposal requested Consultation with Tohono O’odham ongoing, response to mitigation proposal requested Progress continues at Whipple Observatory base camp Progress continues at Whipple Observatory base camp Earliest possible construction resumption on Kitt Peak is ~ December 2006 Earliest possible construction resumption on Kitt Peak is ~ December 2006

25. Virtual Observatory Re-started negotiation over MOU between NSF and NASA, nearing resolution of remaining issues ? Re-started negotiation over MOU between NSF and NASA, nearing resolution of remaining issues ? Program solicitation ready for clearance, waiting for MOU signature Program solicitation ready for clearance, waiting for MOU signature Anticipate competition and selection of managing organization in summer FY2007 Anticipate competition and selection of managing organization in summer FY2007 Funds have been made available to ensure smooth transition from NVO development project to VO implementation Funds have been made available to ensure smooth transition from NVO development project to VO implementation

26. NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences Senior Review Update

27. AST Budget FY1995-2006

28. Total of Decadal Survey recommendations ___________________________________________

29. “Senior Review” Committee established October 2005 as subcommittee of MPS Advisory Committee - Roger Blandford, Chair Committee established October 2005 as subcommittee of MPS Advisory Committee - Roger Blandford, Chair Report requested March 2006 but committee and community assured ample time for quality report Report requested March 2006 but committee and community assured ample time for quality report Meetings/telecons held October 2005 - August 2006 Meetings/telecons held October 2005 - August 2006 Community input to NSF and committee Community input to NSF and committee  NSF web site and email http://www.nsf.gov/mps/ast/ast_senior_review.jsp http://www.nsf.gov/mps/ast/ast_senior_review.jsp  Held regional town meetings  Boston, Minneapolis, Clemson, DC, Boulder, Berkeley, AAS meeting

30. “Senior Review” AST has briefed NSF management, Congressional Staff, OMB, OSTP on the process AST has briefed NSF management, Congressional Staff, OMB, OSTP on the process Draft recently available Draft recently available  AST is verifying facts, responding to requests for clarification AST exploring implications of all issues identified. e.g. facility closure, divestiture AST exploring implications of all issues identified. e.g. facility closure, divestiture

31. “Senior Review”  Report will be submitted to MPS AC for acceptance at its 1-3 November 2006 meeting  When accepted, report will be announced through the AAS and posted on AST web site for wide distribution  Plans for AST and Blandford to brief OSTP, OMB, Congressional staff, other agencies (NASA, DOE), community and advisory groups  AST will formulate an implementation plan  Some recommendations will require additional exploration  Bring plan to community (special session at Seattle AAS, planning regional town meetings)  CAA will be consulted as AST acts on recommendations  Results will inform future budget development

33. Stewardship and Science NSF is steward of ground-based astronomy NSF is steward of ground-based astronomy Committee asked to help us in that stewardship Committee asked to help us in that stewardship Fabric of science must be far deeper and richer than Decade priority list Fabric of science must be far deeper and richer than Decade priority list Much of the structure is taken for granted Much of the structure is taken for granted Examine that fabric – be certain pulling a thread doesn’t unravel it all Examine that fabric – be certain pulling a thread doesn’t unravel it all  Scientific capability for the future  Broad community support for the program

34. The Question “The question for all of us is to judge whether these changes are viable and lead to a vital and sustainable future, or whether the pace and scope of change necessary to realize the cumulative aspirations of the community under severely constrained budgets are too drastic.” “The question for all of us is to judge whether these changes are viable and lead to a vital and sustainable future, or whether the pace and scope of change necessary to realize the cumulative aspirations of the community under severely constrained budgets are too drastic.”

36. Operating budgets and grant increments to realize the Decadal Survey recommendations ___________________________________________