1. Situation Analysis Using Conceptual Models to Develop a Common Understanding of Your Project

2. ** Draft Presentation for Testing Purposes ** Version: 18 December 2002 This presentation is based on materials that were initially developed by Foundations of Success and The Nature Conservancy and then modified through joint work. © 2002 Foundations of Success and The Nature Conservancy

3. The Enhanced Five-S Framework Stresses & Sources Critical Threats Situation Analysis Strategies Goal & Objectives Strategic Actions & Tasks Success Indicators & Monitoring Summary Measures Analyze & Communicate Implement & Monitor Adapt and Learn Systems Focal Targets Rigorous Viability

4. Why Do We Need a Common Understanding of Our Project? Members of a project team have: u Potentially different goals and objectives u Lack of understanding of characteristics of targets u Varying assumptions about what affects targets u Varying knowledge about leverage opportunities u Inconsistent use of terms

5. What Did We Do Before? The current “Five-S Approach” helps practitioners to assess the situation at the site. In particular, it: u Specifies stresses that affect targets u Identifies sources of stress

6. Why are Improvements Needed? The current “Five-S” system does not consistently: u Specify assumptions regarding chains of factors affecting targets u Identify the ultimate threats driving the system u Present a simple yet comprehensive picture of the situation at the project site that can be shared with partners

7. Situation Analysis a.Identify threats and other factors affecting targets. b.Link targets, threats, and other factors in a chain of causation and/or conceptual model. c.Prioritize the threats you will address.

8. What is a Conceptual Model? A diagram of a set of relationships between certain factors and the targets. A good conceptual model: 1. Presents a picture of the situation at the project site 2. Shows assumed linkages between factors 3. Shows both direct and indirect threats 4. Presents only relevant factors 5. Is based on sound information 6. Results from a team effort

9. 1. Presents a Picture of the Situation at the Project Site

10. Initial Conceptual Model: Initial Conceptual Model: Situation at Site Prior to the Project

12. Project Conceptual Model: Project Conceptual Model: How Project Will Change Situation

13. 2. Shows Assumed Linkages Between Factors A Conceptual Model shows how you assume factors relate to one another. For example:

14. 3. Shows Major Direct and Indirect Threats Direct Threats = Factors that immediately impact the target condition. - Anchor damage - Sedimentation Indirect Threats = Factors that underlie or lead to the direct threats. - Need for cash - Economic crises

15. 4. Presents Only Relevant Factors (Modeling is both a Science and an Art)

18. 5. Is Based on Sound Information Existing Info = Data that have already been collected for some other purpose than designing and monitoring your project Primary Info = Data that you specifically collect while designing and monitoring your project

19. 6. Results from a Team Effort

20. An Example of a Conceptual Model

32. The Model in “Five-S” Terminology

33. Initial Conceptual Model: Initial Conceptual Model: Situation at Site Prior to the Project

34. Project Conceptual Model: Project Conceptual Model: How Project Will Change Situation

35. The Enhanced Five-S Framework for Measuring Conservation Impact Stresses & Sources Critical Threats Situation Analysis Strategies Goal & Objectives Strategic Actions & Tasks Success Indicators & Monitoring Summary Measures Analyze & Communicate Implement & Monitor Adapt and Learn Systems Focal Targets Rigorous Viability

36. Initial Conceptual Model Initial Conceptual Model

37. Conceptual Model Break-Out Session For your project site: u Identify major factors affecting targets u Build an “initial conceptual model”