1. Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal for Energy Conservation Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia 1 Low Carbon Dinner – March 1 st 2011 West Suffolk College Pathways to an Energy Secure and Low Carbon Future

2. Background Awareness Raising Effective Management Innovative Technical Solutions Low Carbon Energy Production Nuclear electricity Renewable Energy Generation – Heat, Electricity and Transport Carbon Capture and Sequestration 2 Good Record Keeping and Objective Analysis of data > leading to energy reduction through good management Building design Use of Efficient appliances/Technologies

3. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure. We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!

4. Import Gap Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK On 7 th /8 th December 2011: UK Production was only 39%: 12% from storage and 49% from imports UK becomes net importer of gas Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway Oil reaches $140 a barrel Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas. Gas Production and Demand in UK Wholesale Electricity Price surge in January and December 2010 when Gas imports are high.

5. kWh% costRank% Renewables 2008 Norwich3,53579%6 0.0% Ipswich4,34997%159 0.0% Waveney4,41799%181 1.9% Broadland4,618103%231 3.0% Great Yarmouth4,699105%252 30.0% St Edmundsbury4,869109%280 1.0% Breckland5,028112%312 31.8% Forest Heath5,174116%336 0.0% Babergh5,252117%343 0.1% South Norfolk5,347119%358 5.0% Suffolk Coastal5,371120%360 1.0% North Norfolk5,641126%385 1.3% Mid Suffolk5,723128%390 18.3% King's Lynn and West Norfolk5,731128%393 2.5% UK Average4478 % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO 2 from electricity consumption in Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO 2 (based on UK emission factors) Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk

6. Installations under the Feed In Tariff Scheme (18/02/2011) 6 Technology Domestic Installations Other Installations*Total Number Installed Capacity (MW) Number Installed Capacity (MW) Number Installed Capacity (MW) Suffolk Hydro0010.4910 Micro CHP000000 Photovoltaic4661.13450.0234711.157 Wind190.12500190.125 Total4851.2660.5134911.773 Norfolk Hydro20.021002 Micro CHP10.001001 Photovoltaic4761.118100.0814861.199 Wind200.14250.034250.176 Total4991.281150.1155141.396 * Commercial, Industrial and Community Schemes. Note: Chris Huhne announced a potential curtailment of large FIT schemes (>50kW) in early February 2011.

7. 7 Mostly Eye and Thetford Scroby Renewable Energy Generation in Suffolk and Norfolk 2009 - 10 Generation in GWh stationsGWh Capacity (kW) Load Factor Biomass33266181660.2% Landfill Gas 181272671954.3% Off-shore Wind 11706000032.3% On-shore Wind 5582450027.0% Sewage Gas 210483623.6% Total 29 691177871 Total Demand in Norfolk and Suffolk 7803.2 GWh % Renewables 8.9% National Average 7.8% Target 10.4%

8. Electricity Supply in Norfolk and Suffolk (GWh) 8 2009 Data for Renewables and Sizewe ll Other Data based on typical load factors Existing Renewables Sizewell B Great Yarmouth Total generation in Norfolk and Suffolk (allowing for losses) ~ 11000 GWh Total demand in Norfolk and Suffolk = 7803 GWh Net export to remainder of UK ~ 3200 GWh Embedded Renewable Electricity such as ON-SHORE wind will be used near demand incurring limited transmission losses. Large Scale Generation incurs 8.5% trnamission/distribution loss Export of Electricity to rest of UK

9. Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. 9 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. FuelApproximate emission factor Comments Coal900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas400 – 430gAssuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth Nuclear5 – 10gDepending on reactor type Renewables~ 0For wind, PV, hydro Overall UK~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix Suffolk & Norfolk (2009) ~83gSizewell B, Yarmouth and existing renewables In 2009 Norfolk and Suffolk was a very low carbon zone in UK But current accounting procedures do not allow regions to promote this. A firm in Norfolk / Suffolk would have only 16% of carbon emissions from electricity consumption

10. 10 Variation in UK Electricity and Demand and Wind Generation. A single wind farm may have moderate variation in output Output smoothed if whole UK is considered. Demand also has significant diurnal variation Data for 23-25 th February 2011 from www.bmreports.comwww.bmreports.com Output from nuclear plant is nearly constant difference in variation in nuclear output compared to demand is comparable with difference in demand and wind generation

11. 11 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. Electricity exported from Norfolk/Suffolk in 2009 to rest of UK ~ 3200 GWh representing a net CO 2 saving of ~ 1.43 Mtonnes At £12.50 per tonne (current EU-ETS price), this represents a benefit of £18 million to rest of UK in carbon saved. However – in 2010, Sizewell B was off line from over 6 months, so is this low carbon electricity sustainable? Is such a reliance on a single source a secure or sustainable? From BBC Website – 27 th May 2008 Hundreds of thousands of homes suffered power cuts after a fault caused an unplanned shutdown at the Sizewell B nuclear power plant in Suffolk. Homes and businesses in London, and East Anglia were affected….. Local generation avoids most transmission and distribution losses and small scale schemes avoid such major power blackouts. However – over decentralisation may lead to distribution grid problems if there is no reinforcement.

12. 12 The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007 For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 12

13. 13 Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements 800 350 Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57% CO 2 emissions reduced by 17.5 tonnes per annum. 13 Performance of ZICER Building

14. Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005. Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault Additional CO 2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes. Low Energy Lighting Installed 14

15. Low Carbon Strategies: making efficient use of technology 15 Solar Thermal solutions can provide hot water However, performance can be significantly affected by way normal central heating boiler is used for backup. A factor of two in output has been measured for otherwise identical installations

16. Low Carbon Strategies: making efficient use of technology 3 units each generating 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat 16 e.g. UEAs Combined Heat and Power Improved insulation, improved appliance efficiency, (power packs, lighting etc, etc). Energy conserving technologies e.g. heat pumps, CHP etc.

17. 17 1997/98 electricitygas oilTotal MWh198953514833 Emission factorkg/kWh0.460.1860.277 Carbon dioxideTonnes91526538915699 ElectricityHeat 1999/ 2000 Total site CHP generation exportimportboilersCHPoiltotal MWh204371563097757831451028263923 Emission factor kg/kWh -0.460.460.186 0.277 CO 2 Tonnes -44926602699525725610422 Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide 17 Significant Savings in CO2 emissions are possible with CHP

18. A 1 MW Adsorption chiller Uses Waste Heat from CHP Provides chilling requirements in summer Reduces electricity demand in summer Increases electricity generated locally Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually. 18 Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively. More electricity could be generated in summer A Paradox: Largest amount of electricity was imported when demand was least! For optimum results: Care in matching demand is needed

19. Peak output is 34 kW All electricity must be converted from DC to AC by use of inverters. Inverters are only 91% efficient 19 Building Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation Typical Solar Array: ZICER Building, UEA Most use of electricity is for computers DC power packs are typically ~70% efficient Only 2/3rds of costly electricity is used effectively. An integrated system in a new building would have both a DC and AC network. Reduced heat gain in building leading to less air-conditioning requirements.

20. 20 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected. Cells active Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow 20 For optimum results: Care is needed in design

21. 21 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: A summary 4.Using Renewable Energy UEA Advanced Gasifier CHP 5.Offset Carbon Emissions 3.Using Efficient Equipment 1.Raising Awareness 2.Good Management 21

22. 22 Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions Some costs for providing a low carbon future Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff ~ £700+ per tonne CO 2 saved On-shore wind under Renewable obligation ~ £90+ per tonne CO 2 saved Cavity Insulation ~£20 - £30 per tonne CO 2 saved Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms of CO 2 saved. An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions.

23. 23 Conclusions Energy Security and a Low Carbon Strategies are important for a sustainable and prosperous future. Strategies should not focus just on energy generation but also on energy reduction Better management can lead to significant and often cheaper solutions for a low carbon future Integrate effectively the use of newer technologies with actual demand e.g. local generation avoiding unnecessary losses – also avoid unnecessary conversion form DC to AC etc. East Anglia provides and exports low carbon electricity with emissions less than 20% of national average. East Anglia has Academic Institutions which are taking a lead in developing the low carbon future e.g. Worlds First MBA in Strategic Carbon Management run by the Norwich Business School at UEA. Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist Philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." And Finally!