1. Climate Change Mitigation Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences

2. The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Good Practice Examples from UEA –Nelson Court/Constable Terrace –Elizabeth Fry –ZICER –CHP –Adsorption Chilling Building Regulations - how they affect performance The future Climate Change Mitigation

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Reasons for Concern I II III IV V Range of predicted temperatures Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for most Regions Negative for some Regions Some positive/ some negative Most people adversely affected Net Negative for all markets most Very Low Risk Higher Risk Current temperature Historic Average Average 1950 - 1970 oCoC IIRisks from Extreme Climatic Events IIIDistribution of Impacts IVAggregate Impacts VRisks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities

5. Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO 2 emissions. Gas Scenario Nuclear Scenario Coal Scenario Variable Scenario: 40% Gas; 20% Nuclear 60% reduction 20% reduction 20 year growth in demand 1.8-2% per annum 2.2% in 2003

6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

9. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS which will have to be imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use which could affect both industry and our ability to heat an light our homes in the future. Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

10. Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security [it is rare for the wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny days when solar energy output is at a peak] A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption BUT: Arent Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply

11. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? The Government Response Legislative Barriers

12. Government Response Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid. - Energy White Paper: February 2003

13. UK Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010 in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3% Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh Revision of Building Regulations brought forward EU Biofuels Directive for Transport 2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 Carbon Emission Trading - National Allocation Plans to be in place by 31st March 2004.

14. Legislative Barriers to Sustainability Carbon Emission Trading - UK National Allocation Plan Several Serious Flaws Does not reward Early Action Based purely on Historical Emissions Should be based (at least in part) on Technology employed Fails to address issue of improved Load Factors of CHP where these are subsequently associated with adsorption chilling Does not reward efforts towards energy conservation in past. Restrictions on Grants (Heat Recovery Heat Pumps) up to 80% of heat energy can be needed for ventilation excluded from grants unless incorporated in a ground loop recovery system.

15. Government Response Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid. - Energy White Paper: February 2003

17. The CRed ambition To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025 Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference? Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else? Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf? exemplar for the world

18. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 4 million each year for Norfolk On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year.

19. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO 2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

20. How to use your to beat global warming University aims to shame ministers into tougher action Ian Sample, science correspondent - Wednesday August 27, 2003 A group of scientists in East Anglia has launched an ambitious campaign to tackle the threat of global warming in an effort to shame ministers into stronger action on climate change. The task they have set themselves is formidable: to slash the region's emissions of carbon dioxide in half the time the government believes is possible. At first glance, the project, known as Cred, for carbon reduction, might easily be dismissed as well-meaning nonsense. But the team behind it, Keith Tovey and his colleagues at the University of East Anglia, belong to the most prestigious environmental science department in the country. "If anyone is going to do this, they will," said Dennis Thouless whose Norwich-based company, Global Commodities, collects used cooking oil from local businesses and turns it into fuel. The Cred project was set up in response to the government's white paper on energy, published in February. "The government pledged that they would be pushing to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by the year 2050," Dr Tovey said. "It looked impressive and sounded good, but didn't give any clues on how to do it. To put it bluntly, there were too many agendas being thrown around." The result was a statement of high intention that lacked any practical guidance. Growing frustration at the government's dithering has spurred Dr Tovey's team into action. They have taken the government's stated target of 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, which according to the royal commission on environmental pollution is vital to avoid the adverse effects of climate change, and pledged that East Anglia would meet it in half the time. "If we can show that the people here can achieve this target by 2025, we can turn around and say to everybody else, 'What's your excuse?'" Dr Tovey said. Enthusiasm for the project has snowballed. Local businesses have submitted themselves to scrutiny, to see how much electricity they are wasting. School children have had crash courses in saving energy. Night classes have been set up to teach people the fine art of making solar cells that, strapped to their roofs, will give hot water. Others have gone one step further and installed silicon-based panels on their roofs that convert sunlight into electricity. Dr Tovey is talking to the Diocese of Norwich to try to get the Anglican church on board. "East Anglia has more than 600 churches," he said. "Because churches are all built running east to west, it means they've got a huge area of roof that's facing south, so they're perfect for catching the sun." "It would be very hard not to agree with the aims of the Cred project," said the Rev Jan MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's chaplain. "And if there's a possibility of generating some income, why not?" But Dr Tovey knows that slashing carbon dioxide in East Anglia will have little impact on global climate change. The people of East Anglia produce 6.5m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, against the 500m tonnes produced by the UK as a whole. "To make a real difference, the US will have to be doing this, but that will happen when they realise there is money to be made doing this." Word of the project is spreading beyond East Anglia. The Bishop of Hereford has expressed an interest. A delegation from Japan which visited the Cred team may set up a similar project. The biggest threat to success now, the scientists believe, is that people's enthusiasm dries up as the novelty wears off. Dr Tovey said: "There's always a chance we will fail. But if we fail, it can't be said we haven't tried." Cred Enthusiasm for the project has snowballed. Local businesses have submitted themselves to scrutiny, to see how much electricity they are wasting. School children have had crash courses in saving energy. Night classes have been set up to teach people the fine art of making solar cells that, strapped to their roofs, will give hot water. Others have gone one step further and installed silicon- based panels on their roofs that convert sunlight into electricity. Dr Tovey is talking to the Diocese of Norwich to try to get the Anglican church on board. "East Anglia has more than 600 churches," he said. "Because churches are all built running east to west, it means they've got a huge area of roof that's facing south, so they're perfect for catching the sun." "It would be very hard not to agree with the aims of the Cred project," said the Rev Jan MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's chaplain. "And if there's a possibility of generating some income, why not?"

21. Ida-Anglia näitab maailmale eeskuju süsihappegaasierituse piiramisel 27/08/03 07:49:56 Arni Alandi Rühm Suurbritannia Ida-Anglia teadlasi algatas suurejoonelise kampaania tulemaks toime üleilmse kliimasoojenemise ohuga ning häbistamaks ministreid, kes kliimamuutuse ärahoidmiseks liiga vähe ette on võtnud. Teadlased on endale püstitanud aukartustäratava ülesande: vähendada piirkonna süsihappegaasi õhkupaiskamist poole lühema aja jooksul valitsuse määratud graafikust. Esmapilgul võib Credi nime kandev projekt tunduda mittemidagiütleva mõttetusena. Ühendkuningriigi teadlased usuvad, et nii see siiski pole, sest projekti taga seisavad väga väärikad ja tunnustatud teadlased. Ida-Anglia ülikooli keskkonnateaduste õppetooli peetakse parimaks omataoliseks kogu Suurbritannias. Kateedrit juhivad Keith Tovey ja tema kolleegid. Kui keegi nii julge lubaduse täitmisega hakkama saab, siis just Tovey rühm on Dennis Thouless, firma Global Commodities juht, kindel. Thoulessi firma kogub kohalikelt ettevõtteilt kasutatud toiduõli, et seda autokütuseks töödelda. Cred loodi vastusena valitsuse veebruaris välja antud valgele energeetikapaberile. Dokumendis tõotab valitsus vähendada süsihappegaasieritust 2050. aastaks 60 protsendi võrra. Tovey sõnul on valitsuse valgele paberile kirja pandud üsna kenad mõtted ja kogu dokument kõlab hästi. Paraku pole kodanikele antud ühtki juhist, kuidas kirjapandud kauneid mõtteid ellu viia. Et segadust veelgi suurendada, on valge paberi sihtide saavutamiseks üheaegselt käibel mitmeid tegevuskavu. Tagajärjeks on väga suur tähelepanu kasvuhoonegaasiemissioonide vähendamisele samaaegselt igasuguste praktiliste juhiste puudumisega.

22. Effet de serre : East Anglia montre lexemple lundi 15 septembre 2003, par collecte CND R.E.collecte CND R.E. Un groupe de scientifiques de luniversité dEast Anglia, à lEst de lAngleterre, a lancé une campagne pour accélérer la réduction des émissions de dioxyde de carbone de la région. Baptisée CRed (pour Carbon Reduction Project), cette initiative ambitionne daller deux fois plus vite que les prévisions gouvernementales. Le projet a été lancé en réaction au livre blanc sur lénergie publié en février dans lequel le gouvernement sétait fixé comme objectif une diminution de 60% des émissions de ce polluant dici 2050. Les responsables de CRed veulent y parvenir dès 2025. Pour cela, Keith Tovey et ses collègues ont réussi à mobiliser entreprises locales et particuliers pour faire des économies dénergie et installer des panneaux photovoltaïques sur les toits. La prochaine étape consiste à rallier lEglise anglicane à leur cause. Exposées plein sud, les églises ont en effet de larges toitures qui peuvent capter lénergie du soleil. Or, la région dEast Anglia compte plus de 600 chapelles. Si les scientifiques sont conscients du peu dimpact sur le changement climatique de leur action, ils comptent cependant provoquer dautres initiatives. Une délégation japonaise est déjà intéressée par le projet. En France, la commune de Chalon-sur-Saône a déjà mis en place une action similaire pour réaliser en trois ans lengagement de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre pris par lEurope sur dix ans. Pour lire notre article sur linitiative de Chalon-sur-Saône.

23. ecologia e ambiente SULLEFFETTO SERRA LEAST ANGLIA DA LESEMPIO dalla redazione di Bruxelles Bruxelles, 15 settembre - Un gruppo di scienziati delluniversità di East Anglia (Inghilterra) ha lanciato una campagna per accelerare la riduzione delle emissioni di anidride carbonica della regione. Battezzato CRed (Carbon Reduction Project), liniziativa ha lambizione di andare due volte più veloce delle previsioni governative. Il progetto (http://www.cred-uk.org/index.aspx) è stato lanciato il reazione al Libro Bianco sullenergia pubblicato in febbraio nel quale il governo britannico aveva fissato come obiettivo una diminuzione del 60% delle emissioni di CO2 entro il 2025.http://www.cred-uk.org/index.aspx Per riuscire nellimpresa, Keith Tovey e i suoi colleghi sono riusciti a mobilitare le aziende locali e i cittadini per avviare programmi di efficienza e risparmio energetico e installare pannelli fotovoltaici. La prossima tappa consiste nel convincere la Chiesa anglicana a dar loro il suo sostegno. Esposte in pieno sud, le chiese hanno infatti grandi tetti che sono ideali per installare impianti che captano energia solare, e nella regione di East Anglia ci sono più di 600 tra chiese e cappelle. Benché gli scienziati siano coscienti dello scarso impatto della loro iniziativa sul cambiamento climatico, contano tuttavia di promuovere altre iniziative. Una delegazione giapponese si è già interessata al progetto. Indice ecologia e ambienteecologia e ambiente

25. Main Energy Conservation Projects at UEA Constable Terrace/ Nelson Court Student Residences Elizabeth Fry Building Combined Heat and Power School of Medicine ZICER Building The Future Absorption Chilling

26. The Elizabeth Fry Building

27. Termodeck Construction Air is circulated through whole fabric of building Heated using a normal domestic heating boiler (24 kW) No heat supply needed at temperatures as cool as 9 o C Triple glazing with Low Emissivity Glass ~ quadruple glazing 180 mm insulated cavity 300 mm roof insulation 100 mm floor insulation Air – Pressure Test at 50 Pa – not to exceed 1.0 ach Actual performance 0.97 ach Has deteriorated slightly since 1996 Uses regenerative Heat Exchangers 85% with heat recovery

28. Fresh Air Stale Air Fresh Air Operation of Regenerative Heat Exchangers

29. The performance of the building has improved with time Energy Consumption in Elizabeth Fry Heating provided by domestic sized boilers. Energy requirement 20% of good practice for Academic Buildings.

30. 44 96 ECON 19 Good Practice Type 3 Office Elizabeth Fry 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 kg/m 2 /annum gas electricity carbon dioxide emissions thermal comfort +28% air quality +36% lighting +25% noise +26% Elizabeth Fry User Satisfaction An energy efficient building reduces carbon dioxide AND is a better building to work in. Elizabeth Fry: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and User Satisfaction

32. The ZICER Building Follows the tradition of the Elizabeth Fry Building Uses Termodeck construction Draws heat from University Heating Main Has a 34 kW array of Photo Voltaic cells on top floor and roof Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental Research

33. ZICER Construction

35. Ducts in floor slab

36. Installation of Solar Panels

37. Elizabeth Fry performance has improved over years. ZICER will be better and less than 70% of emissions of mid 90s best practice building Photovoltaic cells will generate ~ 30 kW and save 20 tonnes CO 2 per annum. Projected Performance of ZICER

38. UEA Combined Heat and Power Scheme

39. UEA CHP Scheme Until 1999 most heat for space heating was supplied by large boilers Primary main temperature ~ 110 – 120 o C All electricity imported Energy bill was in excess of £1 million per year Three 1 MWe generators are now installed Provide the majority of the electricity for the campus Export electricity at periods of low demand Waste heat is used a primary heat source Supplemented by existing boilers CHP has reduced that figure by £400 000 per year

40. CHP Review 839015101.79.26537.68555.0tonnes 0.2770.1860.43kg/kWh 331503514815819895328kWh1997/98 balloons totaloilgaselectricity 571010278.0255.55256.92698.90.02486.7-420.1 tonnes 0.2770.186 0.43-0.43 kg/ kWh 922563282630771451007815630431578310097700020436531kWh1999/00 balloons totaloilCHPboilers Gener- ationimportexportelectricity Saving in CO 2 emissions as a result of CHP - 4824 tonnes CO 2 or 31.9% Equivalent to 2680 hot air balloons. [Note: UEA expanded during time and consumption increased so CO 2 savings are really higher than this].

41. Condenser Evaporator Throttle Valve Heat rejected Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Absorber Desorber Heat Exchanger Heat from external source W ~ 0 Absorption Heat Pump

42. The facts about Global Warming Good Practice Examples from UEA –Nelson Court/Constable Terrace –Elizabeth Fry –ZICER –CHP –Adsorption Chilling Building Regulations - how they affect performance The future Climate Change Mitigation

43. Performance of Elizabeth Fry and ZICER and Building Regulations

44. The Future Just a few possibilities Heat Pumps Solar Energy Wind Energy

45. Duke Street Renovation Norwich led the way in 1940s First ever Heat Pump Opportunity now exists to reinstate a heat pump in the same building that John Sumner did his pioneering work.

46. The Norwich Heat Pump

47. Duke Street Refurbishment - Heat Losses Tackling heat recovery from ventilation is important

48. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Average daily Solar Gain to March 21st ~ 1.6 kWh Solar Collectors installed 26th January 2004

49. Solar Thermal Performance - detached house in Norwich From 27th Jan - 15th Sept 2004 average gain 3.16 kWh per day Will save about 0.25 tonnes per year

50. House in Cringleford Will save about 0.5 tonnes per year Solar PhotoVoltaic

51. Wind energy 67m 66m Palutikof EcoTech Turbine generates ~ 3.5 - 4 GWh per annum ~ 950 houses saves ~ 3000 tonnes of CO 2 Same saving 12,500 motorists to drive 500 miles less per year

52. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy Building Regulation have not always been conducive to promoting energy efficiency Option Energy Packages? Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old persons room

53. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm