1. 1 1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal PriceWaterhouseCoopers London: September 3 rd 2010 The Challenges facing the UK as it moves towards a Low Carbon Future. Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv School of Environmental Sciences/ Norwich Business School: University of East Anglia

2. 2 The Challenges facing the UK as it moves towards a Low Carbon Future. Introduction A Summary of Electricity Supply in the UK Renewable Energy Technologies and Initiatives in the UK UK Electricity Security Issues Low Carbon Energy Supply and use in Buildings: A Case Study

3. 3 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 3

4. 4 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1940 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 4

5. 5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 5

6. 6 Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in UK precipitation 1961-2001 6

7. 7 The Challenges facing the UK as it moves towards a Low Carbon Future. Introduction A Summary of Electricity Supply in the UK Renewable Energy Technologies and Initiatives in the UK UK Electricity Security Issues Low Carbon Energy Supply and use in Buildings: A Case Study

8. 8 There is a looming Gas Shortage in the UK Import Gap On 13 th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports

9. 9 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does the UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? Norway

10. 10 Carbon Factors for different modes of electricity generation In UK, Coal ~ 900 gms/kWh, oil ~ 800+ gms/kWh CCGT ~ 400 gms/kWh Nuclear ~ 10 gms/kWh: Overall ~ 520 – 530 gms/kWh

11. 11 Carbon Emissions and Electricity

12. 12 r Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

13. 13 Electricity Generation Carbon Emission Factors Coal ~ 1.0 kg / kWh Oil ~ 0.9 kg/kWh Gas (CCGT) ~ 0.4 kg/kWh Nuclear 0.01 ~ 0.03 kg/kWh November December January February Current UK mix ~ 0.54 kg/kWh

14. 14 SHETL 2750 1565 Upper North 5787 11092 SPT 5708 4380 Midlands 7804 9374 North 11274 11258 Central 14332 25720 South West 2927 1153 1988 France 1165 2513 5900 7834 7264 17745305 Estuary 2792 6704 SHETL 4027 1759 Upper North 6005 11191 SPT 6205 4561 North 11709 9223 Central 16537 28267 South West 3197 1999 1988 France 2268 3912 6818 6612 6100 11885186 Estuary 3241 6751 1320 Netherlands Midlands 8480 8992 2012 - 2013 2006 - 2007

15. 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 40%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

16. 16 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 40+%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

17. 17 The Challenges facing the UK as it moves towards a Low Carbon Future. Introduction A Summary of Electricity Supply in the UK Renewable Energy Technologies and Initiatives in the UK UK Electricity Security Issues Low Carbon Energy Supply and use in Buildings: A Case Study

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Onshore Wind 10 first generation turbines at Blood Hill have a total capacity of 2250 kW The single neighbouring turbine at Somerton – 1500 kW but generates much more electricity than the 10 combined. Swaffham 1 provides ON AVERAGE sufficient power for 900 homes. Latest generation are 3000 kW each

19. 19 Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Offshore Wind

20. 20 Wind Development in UK

21. 21 Electricity generated from Wind: Total UK demand ~ 380 TWh Assumes Load Factor of 24.65% on shore And 28.76% offshore as measured : 2009 - 2010 UK Wind generating Capacity Development of Wind Energy in UK

22. 22 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Hydro

23. 23 Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty

24. 24 Biofuels/Biomass But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

25. 25 Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation There are numerous designs, but expertise in wave power is spread very thinly Pelamis

26. 26 Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation Oyster Oyster under test at Bilia Croo

27. 27 Tidal Stream Options for Electricity Generation

28. 28 Tidal Power – Barrage de la Rance, St Malo Vortices created during generation at La Rance The Sluice Gates One of 24 turbines

29. 29 Cardiff Newport Bristol Weston Minehead Beachley Barrage Shoots Barrage Cardiff – Weston Barrage Cardiff - Hinkley Barrage Minehead – Aberthaw Barrage Tidal Power – Some Proposed Schemes for the Severn

30. 30 Churchill Barrier each could provide Output 78 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Tidal Barrage Options for Electricity Generation

31. 31 Transmission Network in the UK Transmission throughout England, Wales and Scotland became unified on April 1 st 2005 400 kV 275 kV 132 kV Historically transmission networks have been different in England and Wales compared to Scotland Scotland England and Wales Англия и Уэльс Beauly Denny Line is a constraint – upgrade has raised over 18000 objections

32. 32 2020 Offshore DC Network TornessDounreay East Claydon Lewis Grain Germany Netherlands Norway Offshore Marine Node Onshore Node 300 MW 700 MW 1000 MW Peterhead Shetland Orkney Docking Offshore Walpole Sundon Killingholme

33. 33 1 A > £20 per kW 3 2 4 B £15 to £20 per kW 8 5 6 7 C £10 to £15 per kW 10 11 12 D £5 to £10 per kW 9 13 14 E £0 to £5 per kW 15 17 18 19 F - £5 to £0 per kW 20 16 G - £10 to -£5 per kW Generator Connection Charges under BETTA Плата за подключение к генератору энергоснабжения по BETTA Charges from 1 st April 2010

34. 34 Northern Scotland Southern Scotland Northern Yorkshire Eastern London East Midlands South East South Western Southern North West N Wales & Mersey Midlands South Wales Scotland Шотландия England & Wales Англия и Уэльс Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) Demand Charges (2010 – 2011) ZoneTRIAD Demand (£/kW) Energy Consumed (p/kWh) N. Scotland5.8659320.790954 S. Scotland 11.2186871.547861 Northern 14.5231261.993796 North West 18.4263262.552189 Yorkshire 18.3447452.520788 N Wales & Mersey 18.891869 2.625780 East Midlands 20.9341252.886193 Midlands 22.6926353.184194 Eastern 21.8350993.026211 South Wales 22.5249893.028765 South East 24.6338103.377343 London 26.7569423.602492 Southern 25.4944503.537180 South Western 26.0578323.553243

35. 35 Renewable Obligation Certificates The Regulator OFGEM SUPPLIERS Trader and Brokers Renewable Generator Notifies Regulator how much generated. Sells ROCs to Trader Sells Electricity with or without ROCs Notifies OFGEM of compliance -i.e. ROCs or pays FINE Supplier Buys ROCs from Trader ROCs issued FINES recycled in holders of ROCs in proportion to number held Because of recycling, ROCs have value greater than their nominal face value

36. 36 Renewables Obligation % Obligation Buy Out Price (£ / MWh) 2002-2003330 2003-20044.330.51 2004-20054.931.39 2005-20065.532.33 2006-20076.733.24 2007-20087.934.30 2008-20099.135.76 2009-20109.737.19 2010-201110.436.99 2011-201211.4 2012-201312.4 2013-201413.4 2014-201514.4 2015-201615.4 The percentage obligation was initially set as far as 2010 – 2011, but later extended to 2015 – 2016. The scheme has now been extended to 2037, but with a Buy Out Price is increased annually by OFGEM and is approximately equal to RPI. Total market has a value of around £300M+

37. 37 £15 - 18 per MWh Recycled fines - Potential Value of Renewable Generation ~£1.50 per MWh Embedded benefits - less losses £4.85 per MWh Climatic Change Levy Exemption £36.99 per MWh Face value of ROC (2010 – 2011) £39.96 per MWh Wholesale Electricity Price (average daily price 01/08/2010 – 24/08/2010) Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ £2 - £5 per MWh Value of Renewable Generation ~£95- £100 per MWh Current Net Value of Renewable Generation ~£95 per MWh

38. 38 Renewables Obligation Proportion generated by different technologies. Some were very small amounts – see table biomass7.8% advanced biomass0.10% Co-firing with fossil fuel 11.1% hydro < 20MW14.2% hydro < 20kW0.014% micro hydro0.4% landfill28.3% sewage2.2% waste0.014% offshore wind6.0% onshore wind30.0% small wind0.0031% photovoltaics > 50kW0.0013% photovoltaics < 50kW0.0019% wave0.0001% Proportion generated by each technology 2007 - 2008 Link to ROC_Register

39. 39 Data based on 334 Wind Farms PV Data based on 71 installations Performance of Renewable Energy Technologies in UK Tidal 10.42% based on one device Wave 0.71% based on one device

40. 40 Energy SourceScale Generation Tariff Duration (p/kWh) (years) Anaerobic digestion500kW11.520 Anaerobic digestion>500kW920 Hydro15 kW19.920 Hydro>15 - 100kW17.820 Hydro>100kW - 2MW1120 Hydro>2kW - 5MW4.520 Micro-CHP<2 kW10 Solar PV4 kW new36.125 Solar PV4 kW retrofit41.325 Solar PV>4-10kW36.125 Solar PV>10 - 100kW31.425 Solar PV>100kW - 5MW29.325 Solar PVStandalone29.325 Wind1.5kW34.520 Wind>1.5 - 15kW26.720 Wind>15 - 100kW24.120 Wind>100 - 500kW18.820 Wind>500kW - 1.5MW9.420 Wind>1.5MW - 5MW4.520 Existing generators transferred from RO9 to 2027 Feed in Tariffs – Support for small scale Renewable Electricity Generation

41. 41 The Challenges facing the UK as it moves towards a Low Carbon Future. A Summary of Electricity Supply in the UK Renewable Energy Initiatives UK Electricity Security Issues Low Carbon Energy Supply and use in Buildings: A Case Study

42. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure. We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!

43. 43 Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at resent.

44. 44 44 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from Norway and countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

45. 45 The Challenges facing the UK as it moves towards a Low Carbon Future. Introduction A Summary of Electricity Supply in the UK Renewable Energy Technologies and Initiatives in the UK UK Electricity Security Issues Low Carbon Energy Supply and use in Buildings: A Case Study

46. 46 Original buildings Teaching wall Library Student residences

47. 47 Nelson Court Constable Terrace

48. 48 Low Energy Educational Buildings Elizabeth Fry Building ZICER Nursing and Midwifery School Medical School 48 Medical School Phase 2 Thomas Paine Study Centre

49. 49 The Elizabeth Fry Building 1994 Cost ~6% more but has heating requirement ~25% of average building at time. Building Regulations have been updated: 1994, 2002, 2006, but building outperforms all of these. Runs on a single domestic sized central heating boiler.

50. 50 Conservation: management improvements – Careful Monitoring and Analysis can reduce energy consumption. thermal comfort +28% User Satisfaction noise +26% lighting +25% air quality +36% A Low Energy Building is also a better place to work in

51. 51 The ZICER Building - Description Four storeys high and a basement Total floor area of 2860 sq.m Two construction types Main part of the building High in thermal mass Air tight High insulation standards Triple glazing with low emissivity Structural Engineers: Whitby Bird

52. 52 The ground floor open plan office The first floor open plan office The first floor cellular offices

53. Operation of Main Building Mechanically ventilated that utilizes hollow core ceiling slabs as supply air ducts to the space Regenerative heat exchanger Incoming air into the AHU 53

54. Air enters the internal occupied space Operation of Main Building Air passes through hollow cores in the ceiling slabs Filter Heater 54

55. Operation of Main Building Recovers 87% of Ventilation Heat Requirement. Space for future chilling Out of the building Return stale air is extracted from each floor The return air passes through the heat exchanger 55

56. 56 Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room Slabs store heat from appliances and body heat. Winter Day Air Temperature is same as building fabric leading to a more pleasant working environment Warm air

57. 57 Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room Slabs also radiate heat back into room Winter Night In late afternoon heating is turned off. Cold air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures

58. 58 Draws out the heat accumulated during the day Cools the slabs to act as a cool store the following day Summer night night ventilation/ free cooling Cool air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures

59. 59 Slabs pre-cool the air before entering the occupied space concrete absorbs and stores heat less/no need for air-conditioning / Summer day Warm air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures

60. Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements 800 350 Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57%

61. 61 Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6.7 kW in 3 arrays ZICER Building Photo shows only part of top Floor 61

62. 62 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected. Cells active Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow

63. 63 Use of PV generated energy Sometimes electricity is exported Inverters are only 91% efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient Need an integrated approach Peak output is 34 kW

64. 64 Engine Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat GAS Engine heat Exchanger Exhaust Heat Exchanger 11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses 86% efficient Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale CHP 61% Flue Losses 36% efficient

65. UEAs Combined Heat and Power 3 units each generating up to 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat

66. 66 Conversion efficiency improvements 1997/98 electricitygas oilTotal MWh198953514833 Emission factorkg/kWh0.460.1860.277 Carbon dioxideTonnes91526538915699 ElectricityHeat 1999/ 2000 Total site CHP generation exportimportboilersCHPoiltotal MWh204371563097757831451028263923 Emission factor kg/kWh -0.460.460.186 0.277 CO 2 Tonnes -44926602699525725610422 Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

67. 67 Conversion efficiency improvements Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer

68. 68 Conversion Efficiency Improvements Condenser Evaporator Throttle Valve Heat rejected Heat extracted for cooling Normal Chilling Compressor High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure

69. 69 Condenser Evaporator Throttle Valve Heat rejected Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Heat from external source Absorber Desorber Heat Exchanger W ~ 0 Adsorption Chilling Conversion Efficiency Improvements

70. 70 A 1 MW Adsorption chiller Adsorption Heat pump uses Waste Heat from CHP Provides most of chilling requirements in summer Reduces electricity demand in summer Increases electricity generated locally Saves 500 – 700 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually

71. The Future: Biomass Advanced Gasifier/ Combined Heat and Power Addresses increasing demand for energy as University expands Will provide an extra 1.4MW of electrical energy and 2MWth heat Will have under 7 year payback Will use sustainable local wood fuel mostly from waste from saw mills Will reduce Carbon Emissions of UEA by ~ 25% despite increasing student numbers by 250% 71

72. 72 Photo-Voltaics Advanced Biomass CHP using Gasification Efficient CHP Absorption Chilling The Future: late 2010

73. 73 19902006Change since 1990 2010Change since 1990 Students557014047+152%16000+187% Floor Area (m 2 )138000207000+50%220000+159% CO 2 (tonnes)1942021652+11%14000-28% CO 2 kg/m 2 140.7104.6-25.7%63.6-54.8% CO 2 kg/student34901541-55.8%875-74.9% Efficient CHP Absorption Chilling Trailblazing to a Low Carbon Future

74. 74 Target Day Results of the Big Switch-Off With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possible How can these be translated into long term savings?

75. 75 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? UK emissions is equivalent to 5 hot air balloons per person per year. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person On average each person causes emission of CO 2 from energy used. UK ~9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. France ~6.5 tonnes Germany ~ 10 tonnes USA ~ 20 tonnes "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

76. 76 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour in Northern Japan or UK? 2.6 km At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

77. 77 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future for business 4.Renewable Energy 5.Offsetting Green Tariffs 3.Technical Measures 1.Awareness 2.Management

78. 78 1.33 billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase in 3 years Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

79. 79 Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading. And Finally There are many exciting options for a sustainable low carbon energy system The UK need to address both the short term and long term objectives The UK is facing an energy security issue in the next decade There needs to be a much more integrated approach to energy supply Long term decision making is needed – longer than the life time of a Parliament We need to take Energy out of short term Party Politics Conclusions