1. Park Lane Methodist Church Sunday 14 th May 2006 Climate Change and the Environment Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project Our Insatiable Appetite for Energy POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 14

2. This series is looking at the Environment, Climate Change and Global Warming. Last week we saw that Climate Change is partly natural, but most effects in last 50 years have been from mans activities – burning of fossil fuels for energy Todays talk will review what resources and their potential for the next 50 years. Next Week we will go on to consider the hard choices facing us Then: what can we do about it? what should we as Christians do about it? Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: School of Environmental Sciences Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery CRed Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

3. Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 2003 1979 CRed Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW 50 billion kW. consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW i.e. 10 times current demand Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW). CountryEnergy Requirement PopulationPer Capita World12.0 TW6000 M2.0 kW USA 3.0 TW 300 M10.0 kW Europe 2.0 TW 350 M5.7 kW UK 0.3 TW 60 M5.0 kW

5. To discuss now Is 10 billion a realistic assumption for population? Or will Bird Flu solve our problems and halve that figure? Does 4 kW per person seem reasonable - 80% of our current level, 70% of European Level, 40% or US level What exactly do we mean by renewable energy resources? Are any of the following resources renewable? –Geothermal, Peat, Hydro?? –Gas, Oil, Coal?? To discuss later Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable with Solar, Wind, Biomass? What is needed to bring our use of resources into harmony with nature on Gods planet? To discuss now Is 10 billion a realistic assumption for population? Or will Bird Flu solve our problems and halve that figure? Does 4 kW per person seem reasonable - 80% of our current level, 70% of European Level, 40% or US level What exactly do we mean by renewable energy resources? Are any of the following resources renewable? –Geothermal, Peat, Hydro?? –Gas, Oil, Coal??

6. PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES 1 trillion = 1 million millions decades:- centuries: millennia: projected average consumption of 40 TW annual consumption will be:- 350 trillion units (kWh) at present it is 90 trillion units Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:- Oil Reserves:- 1500 trillion units Gas Reserves:- 1500 trillion units Uranium:- 1000 trillion units Coal Reserves:- 7000 trillion units Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 25000 trillion units Fusion (Deuterium):- 275 billion trillion units D – D fusion Coal,Geothermal, D – T fusion, 232 Th 235 U, Tar sands, 238 U, Oil Shales Oil, Gas,

7. "RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES" Orders of magnitude only Practically Achievable:- 10 - 50 million kW – Tidal 100 – 500 million kW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes 1 – 5 billion kW - Hydro; Wind; Waves 10 – 50 billion kW – Solar Projected demand is 40 billion kW We will need all the renewables we can get

8. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TheoreticalPracticalRealised to date TWGW NON- SOLAR Tidal3501France, Russia, China 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

9. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical France, Russia, China 1503Tidal NON- SOLAR Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand 1060+30Geothermal 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

10. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical France, Russia, China 1503Tidal NON- SOLAR Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand 1060+30Geothermal USA, Israel: third world 10*30000 (on land) SOLAR Direct Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump

11. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

12. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TheoreticalPracticalRealised to date TWGW SOLAR Indirect Wind30100050 and rising rapidly USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 1500 MW in UK 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

13. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

14. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 800 MW in UK 20 and rising rapidly 100030Wind SOLAR Indirect

15. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES GW TW Realised to date PracticalTheoretical USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 800 MW in UK 20 and rising rapidly 100030Wind SOLAR Indirect UK, Norway, Japan 0.01303Waves USA0.00130030OTEC Pelamis: 750 kW device installed August 2004: Orkney Operated for 10 days – was in dock for 9 months at Lyness 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

16. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TheoreticalPracticalRealised to date TWGW Hydro30+2000400USA, Brazil, Canada, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Malaysia etc. Biomass/ Wastes 300100010-100?Various Brazil - Bioethanol SOLAR Indirect Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Hydrogen????

17. The Star of the East A vision of the future for Norwich A vision for Dongtan Shanghai

18. 3 country park Approx 1km International Airport

19. 2 energy station floating farmers market river walk & quay (proposed residential development) turbine viewing & display gallery

20. 4 R & D, factories of the future

21. 5 (country park) interactive learning centre working environmental organisations

22. 6 market low carbon residential ring

23. Star of the East Alsop Architects

24. View from Thorpe Station The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

25. To discuss Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable with Solar, Wind, Biomass? What is needed to bring our use of resources into harmony with nature on Gods planet?

26. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at the above site: follow the links to Academic Resources We need to think carefully about our options Next week the Hard Choices facing us ROCs, TOCs, HOCs, LATs, ETS and all that Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge to combat Climate Change? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." CRed