1. Introduction Wed, Aug 31, 2005

2. Introduction Syllabus Syllabus Syllabus Lectures Lectures Lectures Assignments Assignments Assignments Page xi – Interactive Exercises Page xi – Interactive Exercises Page xvi – Graphing Calculator Page xvi – Graphing Calculator

3. The Scientific Method Formulate a theory. Formulate a theory. Collect some data. Collect some data. Summarize the results. Summarize the results. Make a decision. Make a decision.

4. The Scientific Method Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Collect some data. Collect some data. Summarize the results. Summarize the results. Make a decision. Make a decision.

5. The Scientific Method Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Summarize the results. Summarize the results. Make a decision. Make a decision.

6. The Scientific Method Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. Make a decision. Make a decision.

7. The Scientific Method Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. Make a decision – Chapters 6 – 14. Make a decision – Chapters 6 – 14.

8. The Scientific Method Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. Make a decision – Chapters 6 – 14. Make a decision – Chapters 6 – 14. Theoretical underpinnings – Chapters 6 – 8. Theoretical underpinnings – Chapters 6 – 8. Making decisions in a variety of situations – Chapters 9 – 14. Making decisions in a variety of situations – Chapters 9 – 14.

9. Formulate a Theory This example is taken from Chapter 14, p. 941. This example is taken from Chapter 14, p. 941. Based on reports from patients, researchers formulate the theory that the following allergy- relief medications cause insomnia in some patients. Based on reports from patients, researchers formulate the theory that the following allergy- relief medications cause insomnia in some patients. Claritin-D Claritin-D Loratadine Loratadine Pseudoephedrine Pseudoephedrine

10. Formulate a Theory This theory will be tested by posing it as a question with two competing answers. This theory will be tested by posing it as a question with two competing answers. Question: Do these medications cause insomnia? Question: Do these medications cause insomnia?

11. Formulate a Theory The possible answers are stated more precisely as two competing hypotheses: The possible answers are stated more precisely as two competing hypotheses: “Null:” There is no difference in the insomnia rates among users of these medications nor between them and non-users. “Null:” There is no difference in the insomnia rates among users of these medications nor between them and non-users. “Research:” There are differences in the insomnia rates. “Research:” There are differences in the insomnia rates.

12. Collect Some Data 3036 subjects, some users and some non-users, were studied. 3036 subjects, some users and some non-users, were studied. Treatment Group Clar.-DLora.Pseud.Placebo Insomnia ? Yes1642210428 No859521444894

13. Summarize the Results We use some fancy formulas, or use the TI-83, and compute a special quantity: We use some fancy formulas, or use the TI-83, and compute a special quantity:  2 = 154.22.

14. Summarize the Results We use some fancy formulas, or use the TI-83, and compute a special quantity: We use some fancy formulas, or use the TI-83, and compute a special quantity:  2 = 154.22. (If there really is no difference in the insomnia rates, then we “expect” this calculation to yield the value 3, plus or minus a bit.) (If there really is no difference in the insomnia rates, then we “expect” this calculation to yield the value 3, plus or minus a bit.)

15. Make a Decision We compare this to a value that we look up in a table, or use the TI-83: We compare this to a value that we look up in a table, or use the TI-83: Critical value = 7.815. Since  2 is larger than the critical value, we conclude that the “research” hypothesis is correct: There is a difference in the insomnia rates. Since  2 is larger than the critical value, we conclude that the “research” hypothesis is correct: There is a difference in the insomnia rates.

16. Some Questions Does this procedure prove that the medications caused the insomnia? Does this procedure prove that the medications caused the insomnia? Does it show that the insomnia rates were higher for the groups that took the medications? Does it show that the insomnia rates were higher for the groups that took the medications?