2. Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

3. Industry Individual companies conducting similar business  Agriculture  Mining  Construction  Manufacturing

4. Industry Individual companies conducting similar business  Tourism  Hi-Tech

5. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)  Eventually all Labor Market Information publications will use the NAICS.  Developed in cooperation with Canada and Mexico, NAICS lets analysis cross borders. NAICS Based on: work performed by an industry. SIC Based on: What is produced by an industry.

6. Occupation Work in which people engage to earn a living  Accountant  Secretary  Flight Attendant  Surgeon  Software Engineer  Network Analyst

7. Occupation Work in which people engage to earn a living  Customer Service Representative  Administrative Assistant

8. Colorado Employment and Recessions 1939 - 2003 "A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months."

9. Average Industry Salary

10. ES-202  Quarterly report  Measures industry employment and average wages  All counties and statewide  Derived from quarterly Unemployment Insurance reports  Accounts for about 98% of Colorado employers.

11. Current Employment Statistics  Monthly survey of businesses  Estimates levels of employment by industry  Statewide, Denver-Boulder, and Colorado Springs.  Current non-farm employment, hours and earnings by industry group.  Benchmarking

12. Occupational Employment Statistics  Wage Survey of 22,000 employers  Employers  Job Seekers  Occupational Projections  Release in November and May each year

13. Occupational Employment Outlook  Estimates outlook for 700 occupations –Fastest Growing –Rapidly Declining  Published every two years  Projects 10 year span  Just released through 2012

14. Employment Outlook: 2002-12 Projections Process  Labor force –Economic growth –Industry employment –Occupational employment

15. Number of live births, 1920-2002 Baby boomers Millions

16. Population 2000 Millions Men Women 12 10 86 8644220 0 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age Source: Bureau of the Census

17. Population, projected 2010 Millions Men Women 12 10 86 8644220 0 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age Source: Bureau of the Census

18. Colorado’s Population 2000 Men Women 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age 100 8060 40 200120140160180200 100 120140 160 180200806040200 Source: Colorado State Demographer’s Office

19. Colorado’s Population 2010 100 8060 40 200120140160180200 100 120140 160 180200806040200 Men Women 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age Source: Colorado State Demographer’s Office

20. Population growth rates Annual rates of change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics projected

21. The civilian labor force, ages 16 and older, will grow by 1.1 percent annually between 2002 and 2012. Annual rates of change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22. The size of the civilian labor force ages 55-64 will increase significantly Projected numerical change, 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 65 and over 55 to 64 45 to 54 35 to 44 25 to 34 16 to 24

23. Labor force participation rate by sex Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent, 1952-2002 and projected 2002-2012 Total Men Women projected

24. Women’s labor force growth outpaces men’s Percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics projected

25. Women’s share of the labor force continues to edge up WomenMen Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force projected

26. Labor force growth rates of minorities outpaces whites Percent change, 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Whites remain the largest group of workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force

28. Colorado

30. Employment Outlook: 2002-12 Projections Process –Labor force  Economic growth –Industry employment –Occupational employment

31. A healthy economy is projected through 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Selected economic variables GDP (annual growth rate, projected 2002-12) Unemployment rate, 2012 (assumed) Productivity (annual growth rate, projected 2002-12)

32. The 2002-12 projections assume a 3.0 percent real GDP growth rate Average annual rate of change projected

33. Average annual rate of change Annual rate of growth of output per hour, nonfarm business, comparison of selected business cycle expansionary periods projected

34. Annualized growth rates of labor productivity during recessions Average annual rate of change

35. Percent The 2002-12 projections assume a 5.2 percent unemployment rate

36. Employment Outlook: 2002-12 Projections Process –Labor force –Economic growth  Industry output and employment –Occupational employment

37. Nationally, total employment is projected to increase by 4.8 percent or 21.3 million. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 21.6 million Millions of jobs projected Total employment Nonfarm wage and salary employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

38. Total employment is projected to increase by 23 percent or 551,600. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 272,000 Millions of jobs Colorado

39. Service-providing industries continue to lead employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Goods-producingService-providing projected Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

40. Manufacturing, financial activities and professional and business services accounted for nearly half of total output in 2002 Billions of dollars Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

41. Education and health services and professional and business services accounted for nearly 40 percent of employment in 2002 Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

42. 244,085 In Colorado, Retail Trade, Accommodation & Food Services and Health Care & Social Services accounted for nearly a third of total employment in 2002 Service Providing Goods Producing

43. Education and health services and professional and business services account for nearly half of projected total employment growth Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, 2002-12 Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

44. 295,046 Service Providing Goods Producing Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs In Colorado, Retail Trade, Accommodation & Food Services, Health Care & Social Services and Educational Services will account for more than a third of projected total 2012 employment

45. Three industries are projected to have declines in employment Thousands of non-farm wage and salary jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

46. In Colorado, only the Utilities industry is projected to decline

47. Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed industries over 2002-12 are computer related, two are health related. Software publishers Management, scientific and technical consulting services Community care facilities for the elderly Computer systems design and related services Employment services Vocational rehabilitation services Ambulatory health care services Water, sewage and other systems Internet services and data processing services Child day care services Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent change

48. Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing detailed industries 2002-12 two are health related, two are transportation related and two are manufacturing related.

49. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected 2002-12

51. Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth  Detailed industries with: – employment growth greater than 14.8% – and average annual output growth rates greater than the overall average of 3.3%.  These industries accounted for: – 21.3% of employment in 2002 – and are projected to account for 45% of employment growth from 2002-2012 National

52. Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth  If you include industries with: –faster than average employment growth –and average annual output growth of at least 2% per year:  These industries accounted for: – 38% of employment in 2002 – and are projected to account for 65% of employment growth from 2002-2012 National

53. Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Manufacturing –Plastics product manufacturing (128,000)* –Animal slaughtering and processing (80,000) –Architectural and structural metals mfg (77,000) –Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (68,000) –Other wood product mfg (67,000) –Other general purpose machinery mfg (51,000) –Cement and concrete product mfg (48,000) –Metalworking machinery mfg (34,000) –Veneer, plywood mfg (21,000) –Forging and stamping (18,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12 National

54. Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Utilities and waste management –Water, sewage and other systems (23,000)*  Transportation and warehousing –Truck transportation, couriers and messengers (507,000) –Scenic and sightseeing transportation (100,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12 National

55. Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Information –Internet services, data processing (244,000)* –Software publishers (174,000) –Motion picture and sound recording industries (116,000)  Financial activities –Non-depository credit intermediation (196,000) –Consumer goods and general rental centers (131,000) –Securities, commodity contracts (124,000) –Commercial and industrial machinery rental (41,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12 National

56. Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Education and health services –Offices of health practitioners (1,229,000)* –Ambulatory health care services (670,000) –Hospitals (632,000) –Individual, family, community and voc rehab services (597,000) –Nursing care and residential mental health facilities (559,000) –Child day care services (382,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12 National

57. Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Leisure and hospitality –Food services and drinking places (1,337,000)* –Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries (410,000) –Traveler accommodation (293,000) –Performing art companies, promoters, agents, managers, and independent artists (37,000) –Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions (24,000) –RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming and boarding houses (8,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12 National

58. Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Other services –Religious, grant making and giving services, and social advocacy organizations (428,000) * –Automotive repair and maintenance (149,000) –Personal care services (144,000) –Other personal services (51,000) –Commercial and industrial equipment (except automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance (29,000)  State and local government –State and local electric utilities (14,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12 National

59. Colorado Employment Growth 2002-2012 78,480

60. Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year Colorado  Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (61,023) – Computer Systems Design and Related Services (24,139) – Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services (7,658) – Specialized Design Services (977) – Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services (14,369) – Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,866) – Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services (3,456) – Scientific Research and Development Services (2,518)

61. Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year  Health Care & Social Assistance (78,480) –Community Care Facilities for the Elderly (7,758) –Other Ambulatory Health Care Services (1,811) –Home Health Care Services (4,898) –Outpatient Care Centers (5,082) –Individual and Family Services (5,670) –General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (22,540) –Offices of Physicians (11,275) –Offices of Other Health Practitioners (3,225) –Child Day Care Services (4,329) –Offices of Dentists (4,039) –Vocational Rehabilitation Services (1,033) –Nursing Care Facilities (4,775)

62. Colorado  Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ( 13,679 ) – Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers (381) – Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events (440) – Gambling Industries (1,775) – Other Amusement and Recreation Industries (9,275) – Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (552) – Amusement Parks and Arcades (537) – Spectator Sports (480) Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

63. Colorado  Transportation & Warehousing (21,078) –Support Activities for Road Transportation (784) –Nonscheduled Air Transportation (595) –Local Messengers and Local Delivery (586) –Freight Transportation Arrangement (847) –Warehousing and Storage (4,146) –Scheduled Air Transportation (5,145) –Urban Transit Systems (225) –Specialized Freight Trucking (2,605) –Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation (137) Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

64.  Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services 35,738 –Services to Buildings and Dwellings 15,877 –Investigation and Security Services 4,089 –Business Support Services 5,625 –Waste Collection 866 –Other Support Services 1,735  Educational Services 55,912 Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

65. Employment Outlook: 2002-12 Projections Process –Labor force –Economic growth –Industry employment  Occupational employment

66. There are 22 major occupation groups  Of these, 14 are projected to grow faster than average. Together, they: –Accounted for 45% of employment in 2002 –And are projected to account for 65% of employment change 2002-12 National

67. Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%) Percent change, projected 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

68. Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%) Percent change, projected 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

69. Major occupational groups projected to grow slower than average (14.8%) Percent change, projected 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

70. 11 major occupations are projected to have a net employment increase of more than 1 million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected 2002-12 Percent change projected to be greater than average (14.8%) Percent change projected to be less than average

71. Colorado Top 15 Growth Occupations 2002-2012

72. Job openings from replacement needs exceed those from employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Millions of jobs, projected 2002-12 13.0 11.8 7.5 6.9 5.3 3.5 2.5 3.4.3 2.1

73. Six of the ten fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, three are computer related Percent change, projected 2002-12 Medical assistants Network systems and data communications analysts Social and human service assistants Home health aides Medical records and health information technicians Physical therapist aides Computer software engineers, applications Computer software engineers, systems software Physical therapist assistants 59 Physicians assistants Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

74. 26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster than average (14.8%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected 2002-12 Registered nurses General and operations managers Waiters and waitresses Postsecondary teachers Retail salespersons Customer service representatives Combined food preparation and serving Cashiers, except gaming Janitors and cleaners Nursing aides, orderlies, attendants

75. 26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster than average (14.8%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected 2002-12 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer Home health aides Personal and home care aides Receptionists and information clerks Security guards Office clerks, general Teacher assistants All other business operations specialists Sales, whole/ mfg, except tech & science Truck drivers, light or delivery

76. 26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster than average (14.8%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected 2002-12 Landscaping and groundskeeping workers All other teachers, primary, secondary, adult Elementary school teachers, except special education Medical assistants Maintenance and repair workers, general Accountants and auditors

77. Top ten occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Physicians and surgeons Chief executives Podiatrists Lawyers Optometrists Computer/information system mgrs Marketing managers Health diagnosing and treating Sales managers Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

78. Top ten occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Radiation therapists All other computer specialists Nuclear medicine technologists Registered nurses Diagnostic medical sonographers Forensic science technicians Computer support specialists Respiratory therapists Paralegal and legal assistants Dental hygienists Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

79. Top ten occupations generally requiring long- term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Elevator installers and repairers Flight attendants Transit and railroad police Electricians Fine artists (painters, sculptors, illustrators) Police and sheriff patrol officers All other media and communication workers Actors Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters Musicians and singers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

80. Top ten occupations generally requiring moderate- term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Sales reps, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific Sales reps, wholesale and mfg, non technical and scientific Tapers All other communication equipment workers Sheet metal workers All other mechanics, installers and repairers Drywall and ceiling tile installers Painters, transportation equipment Hazardous materials removal workers All other sales and related $63,4600

81. Colorado computer and mathematical occupations will continue to grow at the highest rate

82. Colorado most job losses 2002-2012

83. In Colorado expect a slight increase in the proportion of jobs requiring Bachelor's degrees or higher 896 thousand jobs 683 thousand jobs 1,937 thousand jobs 1,614 thousand jobs

84. In Colorado, about 30% of job growth will be from positions requiring a post-secondary education

85. Most job openings: Bachelor’s degree or higher 2002-2012

86. Education Pays for Coloradans