1. CITRIS i4E Dedication UC Berkeley Jan. 29. 2010 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former Commissioner California Energy Commission Home Phone: 510 527 1060 ArtRosenfeld@gmail.com

2. 2 Does Anyone See A Problem With This Picture?

3. 3

4. 4

5. [2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report] Impact of Efficiency Regulations and Utility Programs 5

7. 202 0 203 0 204 0 205 0 i 4 Energy Center Value Proposition The “(Rosenfeld effect) 2 ”

8. 8 Source: David Goldstein ~ 1 Ton CO2/year~ 100 gallons Gasoline/year

9. 9 = 80 power plants of 500 MW each In the United States

10. 10 In the United States

11. The residential energy consumption due to televisions rapidly increased from 3-4% in 1990s to 8-10% in 2008. Television energy will grow up to 18% by 2023 without regulations. The projected growth does not include the residential energy use by cable boxes, DVD players, internet boxes, Blue Ray, game consoles etc. Televisions Represent Significant Energy Use 11

12. Technically Feasible Standards Each point may represent several TV models *Consumers can expect to save between $ 50 - $ 250 over the life of their TV *A 50 inch plasma can consume as little as 307 kWh/yr and as much as 903 kWh/yr 12

13. General Purpose Lighting – Proposed Regulations (cont.) Rated Lumens RangeMaximum rated Wattage Minimum Rated Life Time Proposed California Effective Date 1490-2600 Lumens72 Watts1,000 hoursJan, 1, 2011 1050-1489Lumens53 Watts1,000 hoursJan 1, 2012 750-1049 Lumens43 Watts1,000 hoursJan 1, 2013 310-749 Lumens29 Watts1,000 hoursJan 1, 2013 Proposed Table K-8: Standards for State-regulated General Services Incandescent Lamps -Tier I Lumens RangeMaximum Lamp Efficacy Minimum Rated Life Time Proposed California Effective Date All45 lumens per watt1,000 hoursJan, 1, 2018 Proposed Table K-9: Standards for State-regulated General Services Lamps -Tier II

14. Abatement cost <$50/ton U.S. mid-range abatement curve – 2030 Source:McKinsey analysis * * * * * * * * * * * Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2 e *************** -23* Residentia l electronic s Commercial electronics Residenti al buildings – Lighting Commercial buildings – LED lighting Fuel economy packages – Cars Commercial buildings – CFL lighting Cellulosic biofuels Industry – Combine d heat and power Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvemen ts Conservation tillage Fuel economy packages – Light trucks Commercial buildings – Combined heat and power Coal mining – Methane mgmt Commercial buildings – Control systems Distribut ed solar PV Residenti al buildings – Shell retrofits Nuclea r new- build Natural gas and petroleum systems manageme nt Active forest management Afforestation of pastureland Reforestatio n Winter cover crops Onshore wind – Medium penetration Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR Biomass power – Cofiring Onshore wind – High penetration Industry – CCS new builds on carbon- intensive processe s Coal power plants – CCS new builds Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds Coal-to-gas shift – dispatch of existing plants Car hybridi- zation Commerci al buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Solar CSP Residentia l buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Industri al process improve -ments Residentia l water heaters Manufacturin g – HFCs mgmt Residential buildings – New shell improvemen ts Coal power plants– CCS rebuilds with EOR Potential Gigatons/yea r Commercial buildings – New shell improveme nts Afforestati on of cropland Onshore wind – Low penetration 14

15. PIER-Funded Research Centers PIER = Public Interest Energy Research, ~$100M/year, operated by CEC, funded by CA IOU’s. (IOU=Investor-owned utility) 1. Existing before 2000, on UCB Campus, now receiving PIER support – 4 centers CBE (Architecture’s Center for the Built Environment) recently awarded CREC = Center for Resource Efficient Communities CIEE (Energy Efficiency). CITRIS (PIER sponsored DRETD = Demand Response Enabling Technologies Development), which was recently formalized as i4E. CSEM (Electricity Markets) recently re-named Haas EnergyCenter 15

16. Since 2000 PIER has started 8 centers At UCDavis, 3 Centers CLTC (Lighting Technology) WCC (Western Cooling Center) EECenter (Energy Efficiency) At LBNL: DRRC (Demand Response) At UCSD: Climate Center At UCI: Plug Loads (Active Mode) At UC Merced: Solar At Cal State Sacramento: Smart Grid 16

17. Demand Response 17

18. 18 California is a Summer Peaking Area

19. 19 Three Necessary Components for Demand Response and Utility Modernization Advanced Metering Infrastructure – Digital meters with communication Dynamic Tariffs – Enable customers to be able to respond to hourly prices – The structure of these tariffs is critically important as customers are hoping to reduce total energy costs Automated Response Technology at customer locations – Enable residential and small commercial customers to respond to price automatically – Larger customers with energy management systems linked to pricing signals over the internet or through other communication channels And, when coupled with energy efficiency programs and policies the result can be reduction in total consumption as well as peak period consumption

21. 21 Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) with additional curtailment option 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Price (cents/kWh) Standard TOU Critical Peak Price Standard Rate Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Extraordinary Curtailment Signal, < once per year CPP Price Signal 10x per year ? Potential Annual Customer Savings: 10 afternoons x 4 hours x 1kw = 40 kWh at 70 cents/kWh = ~$30/year

22. 22 Average Residential Response to Critical Peak Pricing kW 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Noon2:307:30Midnigh t CPP Event CPP with Controllable Thermostat Control Group Fixed Incentive with Controllable Thermostat 69% 65% 73% 61% 69 % 22% 30% 20% 26% 17% 0%20%40%60%80%100% Total TOU CPP-F CPP-V Info Only 1 1 91% 93% 87% 86% Should dynamic rates be offered to all customers? Definitely Probably 95% Key Results from Residential Pilot 12% average load reduction for CPP rate alone Up to 40% with rate + enabling tech Most participants preferred the pilot rates

23. 23 Automated Demand Response Commercial Customers * Source: Demand Response Research Center, Global Energy Partners

24. PCT With U-SNAP Interface (front)

25. PCT With U-SNAP Interface (rear)

26. Source for following two Slides: – Lester Lave and Maxine Savitz. Relative Costs for 95 new production homes at Premier Gardens in Sacramento. Report of Panel on Energy Efficiency in the United States. National Academies Press. (November 2009) WWW.NAS.EDU WWW.NAS.EDU 26

27. 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 Premier Gardens Wheat Ridge Armory Park del Sol Smith Passivhaus Hathaway House Livermore Lakeland $/kWh eq saved $/kWh eq of efficiency investment $/kWh of PV $/kWh eq including both efficiency and PV

28. -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000 Incremental Cost of Efficiency Measures and PVs in $ Annual kWh(eq) including heating load with natural gas converted at 10,000 Btu/kWh Premier Gardens Wheat Ridge Armory Park del Sol Smith Passivhaus Lakeland Indifference

29. Published in Climatic Change 2009. Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2 July 28, 2008 29 Hashem Akbari and Surabi Menon Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA H_Akbari@lbl.gov Tel: 510-486-4287 Arthur Rosenfeld California Energy Commission, USA Arosenfe@energy.state.ca.us Tel: 916-654 4930 A First Step In Geo-Engineering Which Saves Money and Has Known Positive Environmental Impacts

30. 1000 ft 2 of a white roof, replacing a dark roof, offset the emission of 10 tonnes of CO 2 30

31. 31 CO2 Equivalency of Cool Roofs White Roofs alone offset 24 GT CO2 Worth > €600 Billion To Convert 24 GT CO2 one time into a rate Assume 20 Year Period Results in 1.2 GT CO2/year Average World Car Emits 4 tCO2/year So rate is 300 Million Cars Off the Road for 20 years.

32. Solar Reflective Surfaces Also Cool the Globe Source: IPCC 32

33. 33 White is ‘cool’ in Bermuda

34. 34 and in Santorini, Greece

35. Cool Roof Technologies 35 flat, white pitched, white pitched, cool & colored Old New

36. 36 Simulated Meteorology and Air-quality Impacts in LA

37. 37 Potential Savings in LA Savings for Los Angeles – Direct, $100M/year – Indirect, $70M/year – Smog, $360M/year Estimate of national savings: $5B/year

38. 38 California peak electricity demand is growing  In 2000, 72% population lived along coast.  By 2040, nearly 40% of population will live inland.  Need for more peaking plants or demand response measures to meet the higher summer peaks.

39. Federal Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) Legislation American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) – Included some measures specifically intended to promote PACE programs American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) – Authorized federal government to provide guarantees or other indirect financial support to PACE program bonds, potentially reducing the costs of capital to the program dramatically H.R.3525 – Introduced by Rep. Mike Thompson in July 2009 (in House Committee on Ways and Means) – Allows issuance of federally tax-exempt bonds for PACE programs to finance the following: Renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy, incremental hydropower, biomass and landfill gas) Energy conservation/efficiency (energy efficient retrofits of existing buildings and/or efficient storage, distribution, or transmission, including smart grid technologies) Water conservation/efficiency (reduce demand, improve efficiency of use, reduce losses, improve land management practices that conserve water); does not include water storage Zero emission vehicles (no tailpipe emissions, evaporative emissions, or onboard emission-control systems that can deteriorate over time) A facility or project used for the manufacture of the above resources

40. Federal PACE Legislation (cont.) H.R.3836 – Introduced by Rep. Steve Israel in October 2009 (in House Committee on Energy and Commerce) – Purpose is to promote access to affordable financing and provide credit support for accelerated and widespread deployment of: (1) clean energy technologies; (2) advanced or enabling energy infrastructure technologies; and (3) energy efficiency technologies in residential, commercial, and industrial applications, including end-use efficiency in buildings. – Clean energy technology: Technology related to the production, use, transmission, storage, control, or conservation of energy that will contribute to a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations thorough reduction, avoidance, or sequestration of energy-related emissions and for which, as determined by the Administrator, insufficient commercial lending is available at affordable rates to allow for widespread deployment. – “Credit support” is defined as: (A) direct loans, letters of credit, loan guarantees, and insurance products; and (B) the purchase or commitment to purchase, or the sale or commitment to sell, debt instruments (including subordinated securities).

41. States with PACE Legislation California Colorado Florida Hawaii Illinois Louisiana Maryland Nevada New Mexico New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Wisconsin AB 811 (2008), AB 474 (2009) HB 08-1350 (2008) Pre-existing authority to form PACE districts SB 583 (2009) SB 224 (2009) HB 1567(2009) SB 358 (2009) SB 647 (2009) S66004a (2009) [same as A40004A] HB 1 (2009) SB 668 (2009) HB 2626 (2009) HB 1937 (2009) Pre-existing authority to form PACE districts H 446 (2009) SB 1212 (2009) AB 255 (2009)

42. The End For More Information: http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld_docs/index.html or just Google “ Art Rosenfeld ” 42