1. Climate change II: impacts Bio 415/615

2. Questions 1. What are 2 ways plants and animals have been influenced by climate change over the last 50 years? 2. What is phenology, and how does it indicate global warming? 3. How are corals influenced by global warming? 4. Do plant communities respond to more CO2 in the atmosphere? How are such experiments conducted?

3. Review The world has warmed about 1 C in the past 100 years (compared to 5-7 C in the past 20,000 yrs at mid latitudes) The world will continue to warm rapidly, perhaps by 5 C over the next 100 years What will happen to plant and animal populations over the next few human generations? How to plan for the possibilities in the management of species and communities?

4. Has recent climate change influenced biodiversity?

5. Hickling et al. 2005 (UK) Has warming influenced species distributions?

6. Will warming influence species distributions?

7. Iverson & Prasad (USFS) Forest composition change in the Eastern US by 2100 (current is upper left). NY will resemble current Tennessee, Missouri (oak hickory forests).

8. Sugar maple: gone?!

9. Black cherry: ‘sparse’?!

10. Beech: contraction?

11. Sweetgum: can it move?

12. Longleaf pine: can it move?

13. Phenology (IPCC 2007)

15. Coral bleaching is a stress response in reef-forming corals, related to a loss of their photosynthetic (algal) symbiont. Between 1876-1979, only 3 bleaching events were recorded in the world. Since 1979, there have been dozens of reports. Donner et al. (2007) report that “anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of significant thermal stress events for corals [in the Caribbean] by an order of magnitude.”

16. Mountain meadow warming Harte and Shaw 1995 Shrubs increase with warming

17. Arctic warming Walker et al. 2006 Shrubs increase with warming

18. Buxton Climate Change Study Est. 1993 Buxton, England; 370 m a.s.l., 53 20’ N Lat

19. + Temp/water interactions 3x3 m plots, 5 replicates Long-term climate manipulations Summer watering (June-Sept) Winter heating (3 °C ) Summer drought (July-Aug)

20. No progressive change in composition after 13 years in 3x3 m plots Grime, Fridley et al. 2008 PNAS Major life form groups unchanged Species composition relatively stable

21. Fine-scale (100 cm 2 ) vegetation and soil surveys x x xx x x x x x 10 cm 20 cm 240 quadrats (8 per 3x3m plot) 3 m 80% microsite variance within plots

22. 13 out of 25 species exhibited microsite responses in controls ( GLM P<0.05 ) Plantago lanceolata Potentilla erecta Deep site specialists Abundance (cover class) Sanguisorba minor Thymus polytrichus Briza media Shallow site specialists Generalized Additive Models (GAM) Fridley et al. 2011 Global Change Biology Abundance (cover class)

23. FACE (Free Air CO 2 Enrichment)

24. What do FACE experiments reveal about enhanced CO2 effects on forests? DeLucia et al. 1999 Young forest: enhanced growth

25. Mature forest: CO2 effects? Koerner et al. 2005 Mature forest: no consistent difference

26. Will warming facilitate biological invasions? Walther et al. 2002

27. How do we manage ecosystems if the climate is changing? Corridors? Assisted migration? Manage for local adaptation? Genetic diversity? Keep out invaders? For how long? What about plants and animals that will have no suitable new climates? Focus on processes rather than species?