1. TOWARDS EVIDENCE FOR POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WORLD HERITAGE Professor May Cassar Centre for Sustainable Heritage University College London CENTRE FOR SUSTAINABLE HERITAGE 7 th European Commission Conference ‘Sauveur’ Safeguarded Cultural Heritage Understanding and Viability for the Enlarged Europe, Prague, 31 st May-3 rd June 2006

2. How should policy on climate change and cultural heritage be developed while scientific research is still in progress? Could policy development use evidence from alternative sources? What alternative sources of evidence are there?

3. Venice and its Lagoon inscribed on the World Heritage List in 1987 “The number of people affected by floods globally has risen from 7 million in the 1960's to 150 million now.." Michael Meacher, The Guardian, 14 February 2003 “15 out of 19 major World Cities are on the coast and threatened by rising sea levels.” Sir David King, UK Government Chief Scientist

4. “The continuing and accelerating rate of global climate change and its potentially severe impacts on nature and human society call for policy responses. These responses should mitigate climate change and its impacts as far as possible and help adaptation to the partly inevitable consequences.” European Environment Agency, 2004

5. Climate change has therefore three types of impact on cultural heritage, particularly World Heritage: Physical Impact Social Impact Cultural Impact

6. “Human settlements are cultural homes, that nurture the traditional knowledge and wisdom within our larger ecological home….Global warming, climate change and the rising sea level all pose significant threats to Indigenous and local communities from every region of the world.” Indigenous Peoples’ Caucus Statement on the Overall Review Session, 12th United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, 21 April 2004, United Nations, New York

7. Indicators of Environmental Value System Integrity Health Carrying Capacity Resilience

8. Process Response to Climate Change

9. Policy Development for Climate Change and World Heritage Dealing with uncertainty Scientific uncertainty: combination of climate/ anthropogenic effects Uncertainties about impacts and their implications: Sourcing information of common interest to regional World Heritage Creating thematic groups of sites likely to face similar threats Uncertainties about what to do: risk framework, toolkits, vulnerability maps Uncertainties among key actors and key audiences: Links between the IPCC, UNESCO, European Commission to advance knowledge from European scientific research to other world regions

10. Europe: Future Condition and Present Response Future Condition (IPCC Technical Summary: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) : –Southern Europe and the European Arctic are more vulnerable than other parts of Europe –Marginal and poorer areas will be less able to adapt, leading to important implications of equity –Adaptive potential of Europe relatively high because of well-developed political, institutional and technological support systems Present Response European Commission 6 th FP Research Project: Global Climate Change Impact on Built Heritage and Cultural Landscapes (NOAH’S ARK) Contract number 501387, 2004-2007