1. Andrew Coulson, University of Birmingham, England a.c.coulson@bham.ac.uk To be published in: Looking Back, Looking ahead: Land, Agriculture and Society in East Africa – A Festschrift for the work of Kjell Havnevik Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, September 2015

2.  Part of a bigger project – trying to make sense of what is happening to agriculture in Tanzania  I became involved again – after a 30 year gap – in 2009, at a time when agricultural production was reported as growing at about 4% p.a. This was much higher than in the years after Liberalisation – which had led to a series of very negative commentaries on Tanzanian agriculture (Bryceson, Skarstein, Ponte, etc)  In 2010 I heard Hans Binswanger make the case that the best opportunities for agriculture in Tanzania lay in growing surpluses of foods (esp. maize and rice) Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

3. 2001/22002/32003/42004/52005/62006/72007/82008/92009/102010/1 2011/2 * Food crops: Maize2,7052,3223,1573,2193,3733,3023,5943,5564,7334,1235,240 Rice6407136887597848728978751,7231,4391,128 Wheat77746710211083869262113103 Export crops: Cotton49.963.446.9114.6125.643.867.3123.689.554.875.7 Cashewnuts67.395.079.072.077.492.699.179.175.4121.1158.4 Coffee37.552.432.554.034.354.843.168.534.656.833.5 Tea24.727.630.130.730.331.332.731.632.135.035.8 Tobacco28.0 34.047.052.050.750.855.460.794.2126.6 Source: Bank of Tanzania Quarterly Economic Bulletin June 2012, Table 1.11

4. Danish Institute for International Studies 2015 As in Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, June 2015, Chart 4.2

5. Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

6.  Disappointment and feelings of failure  There are a series of myths – which suit certain vested interests. Many go back to colonial times.  Words are used as weapons – “peasant”, “modern”, “commercial”, etc  There are many claims that Tanzania has almost unlimited areas of land available for agriculture, and great potential for irrigation, and that “peasants” are lazy, backward, unproductive, etc etc  Yet in Tanzanian history, large-scale has consistently proved less sustainable than small-scale Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

7.  Effective marketing arrangements  Good and reliable prices – paid as promised  Storage  Feeder roads  Research – especially to combat plant diseases – with plant breeding the real key (improved varieties, or “green revolutions”)  Note: these days extension is less important, especially with information widely available on line Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

8.  More plant and animal diseases and pests than anywhere else  Poor soils – except volcanic and river valleys - low organic content – risks of soil erosion  In most places insufficient water– even for domestic use. Some role for irrigation  RISKS – failing rains, pests, uncertain prices, post-harvest losses, family illness, etc etc  BUT: plants and trees grow quickly Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

9.  Use the labour of the whole family – esp. women  Respond to prices (provided there are goods in the shops)  Are very careful about risks  Use mixed farming and small-scale irrigation when they can  Systems like this can innovate  But not if the pressure is too much  They can also “subsist” – find other income sources  Note: all Tanzanian farmers are in the market – no more peasants! Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

10.  Fallow periods  Ridges  Multiple cropping  Many small plots  Seed selection – for taste and drought  Uses of trees, and famine crops  Risk avoidance – esp. with innovations  Tractors increase risk, leave the soil vulnerable, and need roots to be removed  The hoe, and ox-plough, have advantages – “minimal tillage” Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

11. 1. If one crop grows quickly and covers the surface of the soil, then soil erosion is reduced. 2. So is evaporation of water. 3. Pests and diseases spread more slowly. One crop may act as a barrier slowing down the rate of movement of the diseases. 4. The two crops may use nutrients at different levels in the soil. This means that both crops may get good yields. 5. Less weeding if one of the crop replaces weeds. 6. One of the crops, e.g. beans, may “fix” nitrogen from the atmosphere and so fertilize another crop, e.g. maize. 7. If one crop fails, the other may not only survive, but have more space in which to grow. 8. One crop may provide shade for the other. Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

12.  How do they survive? Not easily!  They choose the best soils/locations, and/or grow drought-resistant crops e.g. sisal, or insist on (usually subsidised) irrigation  Look after their soils with care  Purchase the best available seeds  Efficient marketing and/or processing – which in some cases small farmers cannot match  BUT they have high fixed costs, inflexibilities  NB agribusiness in Africa is not new  “Outgrowers” or contract farming is an attempt to get the best of both worlds Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

13.  Gradual realisation that markets will not solve [all !] Tanzania’s problems  Learning from E Asia – China, Vietnam, Malaysia  Several theses and reports compare Tanzania with Vietnam  “Big Results Now” draws directly on Malaysian experience – huge ambition, encouraged by promises of oil and gas wealth – it planned to spend $10b in 3 years. Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

14.  1999 Tanzania Development Vision (to make Tanzania a middle income country by 2025) requires a 6% per annum growth in agriculture  2001Agriculture Sector Development Strategy and 2006 Agricultural Sector Development Programme committed big resources to irrigation  2009 Kilimo Kwanza [Agriculture First] included explicit policies to assist agri-business  2009 “Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania”, attempted to put this into practice  2012 Big Results Now …. Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

15. Big Results Now Targets Source: BRN, Presentation to Annual Review Meeting 2013: slide 11

16.  If the conditions are right, small farms can produce more food surpluses, to feed the cities  Large farms can do some things that small farms cannot – but do not need to be too big!  Small farm improvement is the only way that will also reduce poverty  So Tanzania needs some large farms but mostly small  How? Appropriate research – farmer-based  Focus on marketing and farm prices  Extension to support market forces  Listen carefully to what small farmers say Danish Institute for International Studies 2015

17.  Technical limitations, e.g soil degradation  A commercial bourgeoisie is emerging  Solutions from overseas may not be appropriate  The myths identified at the start of this paper are very powerful. It will take something close to a revolution to dislodge them and create a new paradigm. Danish Institute for International Studies 2015