1. International CLIVAR update (Prospects for 2009-2013) Jim Hurrell Howard Cattle, Tim Palmer, Martin Visbeck and Valery Detemmerman jhurrell@ucar.edu International CLIVAR Co-Chair National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO USA US CLIVAR Summit 15-17 July 2008 Irvine, CA

2. Outline Overview of CLIVAR Overview of CLIVAR Activities, Achievements and Plans Activities, Achievements and Plans – Contributions to WCRP cross-cuts – See CLIVAR Report to JSC-29 Discussion Discussion – 2 nd CLIVAR Science Conference – Future evolution of CLIVAR (and WCRP)

3. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Mission Mission To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live.

5. Activities and Achievements Prominent display of CLIVAR science Leadership role as CLAs, LAs, and CAs Nobel Peace Prize WGCM: CMIP3 multi-model dataset – coordination of integrations, data collection, and analysis for IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., BAMS, 2007) 16 modeling groups, 23 models, 35+ Tb data Access: 1,000+ scientists / 300+ papers ACC – IPCC AR4 GSOP: Carbon data synthesis GO-SHIP Basins panels Impact of climate change on natural modes Abrupt climate change (AIP)

6. Decadal Prediction WGCM-WGSIP/IGBP (AIMES): Development of Decadal Prediction Experiments Aspen Global Change Institute Workshop Climate Prediction to 2030: Is it possible, what are the scientific issues, and how would those predictions be used? June 23-28, 2008 June 23-28, 2008 Gerald Meehl, Ron Stouffer, Lisa Goddard, and James Murphy Activities and Achievements

7. Decadal Prediction AIP: Coordinated Monitoring/Predictability of AMOC Cunningham et al. 2007 Hurrell et al. 2008: Courtesy Tom Delworth

8. Decadal Prediction Temp  Salinity  GSOP: Assessment of quality of ocean syntheses 2 nd Synthesis Evaluation Workshop (MIT, 9/07) Mid-Lat Upper Ocean Atlantic Anomalies (Upper 300 m) Activities and Achievements

9. Seasonal Prediction What factors are limiting our ability to improve seasonal predictions for societal benefit? What factors are limiting our ability to use seasonal predictions for societal benefit? 180 Attendees from across WCRP, 30 Countries WGSIP: WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction Barcelona, Spain June 2007 Maximum Predictability Has Not Been Achieved Interactions within climate system components (cf GEWEX, SPARC, CliC) WCRP position paper on Seasonal Prediction Activities and Achievements

10. Objectives Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models and data for initialization Provide framework for assessing current and planned observing systems Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model improvements Provide experimental framework for focused research on how various components of the climate system interact and affect one another Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project Certain elements of the CHFP are already part of various WCRP activities e.g., GLACE-2, SPARC & CliC activities, JSC Decadal Prediction, etc. Goal is to leverage, coordinate and synthesize these ongoing activities into a focused seasonal prediction experiment that incorporates all elements of the climate system. First necessary steps in developing seamless weekly-to-decadal prediction

11. Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System –Role for each of core WCRP projects –Key: No future information after initialization Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Interactive Predictions of the Climate System Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Interactive Predictions of the Climate System –Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979-Present –Some Groups Extend to Decadal (JSC crosscut) –Intermediate complexity/Uncoupled experiments not excluded Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …) Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …) International Multi-Institution Participation International Multi-Institution Participation Diagnostic sub-projects being developed Diagnostic sub-projects being developed –will also include extensive interactions among WCRP project panels Climate system Historical Forecast Project

12. Seasonal Prediction PIP: Cracking barriers of ENSO prediction Simple ENSO prediction model: Nino 3.4 SST (DJF) = a WWV(FMA) + b MJO wpac (AMJ) + R ENSO prediction forecast web site to: provide probabilistic forecasts assess skill of different techniques White paper on ENSO metrics Hindcast experiments on role of MJO in onset of El Niño (with AAMP) Western tropical Pacific workshop and panel meeting (China, 2007) SPICE science and implementation plans and coordination with VOCALS McPhaden et al. 2006) Activities and Achievements

13. Seasonal Prediction US CLIVAR: MJO WG Development of diagnostics for assessing MJO simulation fidelity and forecast skill in suite of coupled and uncoupled model simulations Development and operational implementation of MJO forecast metric Develop and coordinate model simulation and prediction experiments, in conjunction with model-data comparisons Promote utility of subseasonal and MJO forecasts in the context of seamless suite of predictions Workshop (Irvine, CA, Nov 2007)

14. Activities and Achievements Seasonal Prediction AIP: TAV and TACE Progress on TACE (2006-2010): Enhanced observations (http://tace.ifm-geomar.de/index.html ) Biases in climate models and strategies to reduce them (http://www.clivar.org/organization/atlantic/TACE/tace.php)http://www.clivar.org/organization/atlantic/TACE/tace.php AMMA-Ocean/TACE/PIRATA workshop: Karlsruhe, Germany 11/07

15. Major Activities and Achievements Monsoons AAMP: Role in AMY, IMS With GEWEX, active role in planning AMY: Wang serving as co-chair SSC AAMP helping draft science plan organizing conferences Contributions to WCRP/THORPEX YOTC planning Work with US CLIVAR MJO WG; development of monsoon metrics for evaluation of simulations Evaluated DEMETER hindcast experiments to determine current skill in monsoon prediction Promoting coordinated A-AM seasonal prediction studies; links to IOP, PIP, GEWEX/MAHASRI – importance of initial land state

16. Major Activities and Achievements Monsoons IOP: Intraseasonal Variability Continued coordination and development of IndOOS Identified understanding the heat budget of the upper ocean at intraseasonal time scales as a critical area of research Contribute to A-AM predictability experiments AAMP: Role in AMY, IMS Contributions to WCRP/THORPEX YOTC planning Work with US CLIVAR MJO WG; development of monsoon metrics for evaluation of simulations Evaluated DEMETER hindcast experiments to determine current skill in monsoon prediction Promoting coordinated A-AM seasonal prediction studies; links to IOP, PIP, GEWEX/MAHASRI – importance of initial land state

17. Activities and Achievements Monsoons VAMOS: Annual Cycle of Convection over Americas IASC LIP Organization of Modeling Group for VAMOS (MGV) Strategy integrates across all 4 science programs. Obj: Integrate NAME-MESA-VOCALS modeling activities Integrate field programs to improve research models, data assimilation, analysis and operational forecasting Develop collaborations between VAMOS research community and operational centers VOCALS: Multi-Scale Regional Climate Study Planning for field campaign and associated modeling activities well advanced

18. Activities and Achievements Monsoons VAMOS: Annual Cycle of Convection over Americas IASC LIP Organization of Modeling Group for VAMOS (MGV) Strategy integrates across all 4 science programs. Foci: Field programs  improve research modeling, data assimilation, analysis and operational forecasting Monsoon Maturation, Onset and Demise Prediction of Droughts and Floods Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and Clouds VOCALS: Multi-Scale Regional Climate Study Planning for field campaign and associated modeling activities well advanced

19. Activities and Achievements Extremes Expanding the coverage of 27 core indices via regional workshops Contributes to capacity development in developing nations Detection work done with indices (influential in AR4 assessment) Indices also used by modeling groups to study projected changes in extremes (also entered into AR4 assessment) Planning of more regional workshops Indices and software are being distributed (via web) ETCCDI

20. Activities and Achievements Extremes Aims: Identify and characterize physical and dynamical mechanisms leading to drought and the mechanisms through which drought may change as climate changes. Follow-on to CMEP: diagnose simulation of drought in current models. 17 projects funded (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOE) US CLIVAR: Drought in Coupled Models Project (DRICOMP) Drought WG: http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html List of relevant model simulations List of relevant observational data sets List of proposed new runs, strategy, modeling groups, contacts, data

21. Major Activities and Achievements (07/08) Sydney Report GSOP: Sea Level Rise Domingues et al. (2008) Importance of Ocean Observing System AIP: Abrupt Change Impact of improved ocean physics Danabasoglu (personal communication) GLOBAL AMOC New New - Control

22. Major Activities and Achievements (07/08) ICPO CLIVAR Exchanges Issues on: N Atlantic Oceanography (Jan 07) w/ ICES AMMA (Apr 07) Ocean Model Development (Jul 07) Seasonal prediction (Oct 07) Furthering the science of ocean climate modeling (Jan 08) NAME (Apr 08) ACC - impact on climate variability (Jul 08) General issue (Oct 08) Size ≈ 32 pages; Distribution ~ 1700 copies per issue (hardcopy & pdf)

23. Goals and Plans WGCM (+ WGSIP, SPARC, GEWEX, AIMES, … ): Development of next generation climate change experiments Climate prediction to 2030 (AGCI, June 2008) Long-term adaptation/mitigation experiments to 2300 Post-IPCC Working I Climate Science: Planning for AR5 (IPRC, Dec 08) WGSIP: Climate system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) Objectives Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models and data for initialization Provide framework for assessing current and planned observing systems Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model improvements Provide experimental framework for focused research on how various components of the climate system interact and affect one another Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction

24. Experiment Proposal Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System –Role for each of core WCRP projects –Key: No future information after initialization Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Interactive Predictions of the Climate System Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Interactive Predictions of the Climate System –Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979-Present –Some Groups Extend to Decadal (JSC crosscut) –Intermediate complexity/Uncoupled experiments not excluded Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …) Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …) International Multi-Institution Participation International Multi-Institution Participation Diagnostic sub-projects being developed Diagnostic sub-projects being developed –will also include extensive interactions among WCRP project panels

25. WGCM (+ WGSIP, SPARC, GEWEX, AIMES, … ): Development of next generation climate change experiments Climate prediction to 2030 (AGCI, June 2008) Long-term adaptation/mitigation experiments to 2300 Post-IPCC Working I Climate Science: Planning for AR5 (IPRC, Dec 08) WGSIP: Climate system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP): Objectives WGOMD: Development of CORE-II protocol Interannually-varying forcing based on analysis products Web-based repository for evaluating ocean simulations Goals and Plans

26. AAMP: Contribute to CHFP and decadal climate prediction experiments for AMY With MAIRS, “International Workshop on Anthropogenic Change of A-AM” Helping organize WMO 4 th International Monsoon Symposium (Beijing, 10/08) VAMOS: VOCALS Regional Experiment field campaign (Oct-Nov 2008) Continued development of MGV strategy and IASCLIP planning Planning for field experiment (ANDEX, 09-10) to link MESA and VOCALS PAGES/CLIVAR: “Reducing and representing uncertainties in high resolution proxy data” (Trieste, Italy, June 2008) GSOP: Pilot project to incorporate carbon data into ocean synthesis products Encourage special IPY ocean synthesis (assimilation of ice data with CliC) Planning for OceanObs’09, with OOPC and others; 3 rd synthesis wkshp (10/08)

27. Goals and Plans AIP: TACE – enhanced observational coverage, process studies, modeling IGBP/SCOR IMBER – Workshop on Climate Driving of Ecosystems (April 2008) directed at graduate students in marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems. Decadal predictability – main focus. Develop and promote coordinated activities (e.g., RAPID/MOCHA, CLIMODE, EU Framwork 7 proposals, etc.) and several workshops/meetings. CLIVAR/IOC IOP: Continued coordination and development of Indian Ocean observing system Contribute to A-AM predictability experiments (with AAMP – CHFP & AMY) SOP: Lead for IPY CASO umbrella project Contribute to SCAR’s development of SOOS PIP: ENSO workshop and summer school Coordinating role between SPICE, VOCALS and NPOCE

28. CLIVAR to seek major presence – – M. Visbeck on organizing committee and chair of program committee Theme – – Climate Prediction and Information for Decision Making Subthemes – – Advancing climate prediction and information service – – Climate risk management strategies and information needs – – Climate impacts and adaptive strategies – – Mainstreaming climate predictions and information services Discussion World Climate Conference (2009)

29. 1 st Conference a success 1 st Conference a success Discussions have begun on desire to hold a 2 nd CLIVAR Discussions have begun on desire to hold a 2 nd CLIVAR Science Conference Science Conference Venue and time not yet determined (Europe in 3-4 Venue and time not yet determined (Europe in 3-4 years?) years?) Important to engage the (CLIVAR) community in Important to engage the (CLIVAR) community in providing assessments of achievements and providing assessments of achievements and identification of major outstanding questions identification of major outstanding questions “Transition” meeting? “Transition” meeting? 2 nd CLIVAR Science Conference Discussion

30. Future Evolution Urgent need for vision of how WCRP will evolve Affecting how core projects should focus and evolve Guiding strategy is “Evolution not Revolution” Transition requires more coordination across projects/programs Dialogue between US and International CLIVAR key Opportunity for US CLIVAR (and agencies) to provide input Projects should play a major role Need to keep the community “on board”: identify key science questions Preserve what is working: no need to “re-invent” core activities still needed 5 years from now Science needs to remain the goal: deliverables are the output U.S. CLIVAR organizational structure: strawman? Discussion

31. Thank you! www.clivar.org

32. CLIVAR Telecon: As per the request from Tony following on from our discussions in Arcachon this afternoon, could you please send to Tony and Ghassem, an estimate of how long it will take your project to produce a legacy document that articulates what are functions that need to be retained and what are key science questions you envisage post 2013. Please, no acryonyms. “Transition phase”: inviting projects at grassroots what that transition should look like post 2015. No clear sunset date. Avoid that work. What are we transition to? Transition will require more coordination across the projects, including US and Intl CLIVAR Ghassem: no abrupt end: evolution not revolution Agency folks are key: what will sell in Washington? Where are the national priorities? Palmer: headline catching legacy, and more baseline important legacy e.g., TOGA: the array. But unclear on whether or not TOGA data sets have improved ENSO prediction skill. It has taken most of the CLIVAR period to improve models, assimilate Data sets, etc. to begin to demonstrate the utility of the array. This is one aspect of CLIVAR’s legacy. We are very much in that phase with PIRATA, ARGO, etc. Headline grabbing: Decadal Prediction (seasonal forecasting was explored in TOGA): we are now beginning to explore decadal prediction. During CLIVAR: we have described decadal variability – a major accomplishment Communication between US and Intl: needs to be more aggressive: my role, role of US members on international panels; has benefits, has disadvantages Examples of where coordination has been good: monsoons, mjo and salinity working groups, Drought: Valery: we can fix that. Not aware of these experiments. Legler: Who might be interested in working on drought. Instead … looking at international Ocean forcing of drought on land …