1. Data Management and Analysis Ethnic group statistics from the last two Censuses: New Opportunities, New Pitfall 8 December 2003 Ms. Baljit Bains Senior Research and Statistical Analyst, Ethnic Demography

2. Data Management and Analysis Contents The Ethnic Question in the Census How 1991 ethnic categories relate to the 2001 categories Main issues to overcome Illustrated case study What data do we have available and what do we need? Any possible solutions at this stage GLA Ethnic Group Population Projections: Future Plans

3. Data Management and Analysis

4. The Ethnic Question in the Census 1991 10 distinct categories with write-in answers for Black Other and Other 2001 5 broad categories with sub-sections within each category 16 separate categories in total in 2001 What influences the way the ethnic question is answered? Individual Structure of question Both are susceptible to change over time Both are inter-related Ultimately the census results reflect the way in which a QUESTION was ANSWERED!

5. Data Management and Analysis

9. What data we need and what data we have Ideally, Individual level information on respondents and their answers for both 1991 and 2001 In reality what do we have: Coding frames from 1991 and 2001 Census Commissioned tables SARs Longitudinal Survey

10. Data Management and Analysis What end product would we like? Moving from 1991 to 2001 - possibly backwards too Matrix of 2001 categories and how they are apportioned to 1991 Formulae Grossing factors Usability and ease

11. Data Management and Analysis GLA Population Projections by Ethnic Group

12. Data Management and Analysis Main Issues to overcome How many groups shall we project for? 10/16 Detail – SYA/Sex/LBs Geographies Comparability with 1991 census data Still reliant on country of birth data – getting weaker with time Special groups – recent migrants

13. Data Management and Analysis

16. Incorporate new data where we can Coding frames from 1991 and 2001 Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) for fertility Census Commissioned tables help link births across ethnic groups - work in progress

17. Data Management and Analysis Additional Work Outside the model Special cases: recent migrants, ASVS, groups not projected Developing ethnic data with other experts in the field Ethnic Data Users Group Guidance/collaboration with ONS

18. Data Management and Analysis Contact details: Ms. Baljit Bains Data Management and Analysis Group Greater London Authority City Hall 5th East, Post Point 14 The Queens Walk London SE1 2AA Tel: 020 7983 4613 Email: Baljit.Bains@london.gov.ukBaljit.Bains@london.gov.uk