1. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Jenny Neuburger GeNet meeting, 26 September 2008 Trends in the Relative Pay of Women and Men Across Three British Birth Cohorts

2. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Research questions How has womens average pay changed relative to mens since 1970? How does womens average pay change with age, relative to mens? What difference does it make adjusting for changes in women's employment participation?

3. Censuses (1951, 1961, 1966) Labour Force Survey, 1971-2007 Increases in womens paid employment

4. New Earnings Survey 1970-1997, ASHE 1998-2007 Improvement in (employed) womens relative pay

5. British Birth Cohort Studies National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) - All babies born in England, Scotland and Wales in one week of March 1946. - Follow-up survey 5,362 in 1948. Stratified sample. - Surveyed 22 times, most recently in 2006 (age 60). National Child Development Study (NCDS) - All (17,634) babies born across Britain in a week of March 1958. - Seven follow-up studies. Added Non British-born children at ages seven and eleven. - 11,419 interviewed in 2000 (age 42). British Cohort Study (BCS) - All (17,287) babies born across Britain in a week of April 1970. - Seven follow-up studies. Non British-born added at ages five, ten and sixteen. - Non-response problems. 9,665 interviewed in 2004 (age 34).

6. % of women in paid employment, by age & cohort

7. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Ratio of womens to mens mean hourly pay, by cohort & age

8. Truncated distribution of wage offers In paid work Not in paid work Wage offer Mean wage Mean wage offer

9. Imputation characteristics Childhood Fathers occupation at two ages Mothers age when cohort member born Parents education Scores in maths and reading tests at age 10 or 11 Number of siblings Number of older siblings Adulthood Highest qualifications Occupational status of first job Years in full-time and part-time employment Any children, children under five, more than one child Lives in London or the South East

10. Results I: Who is in employment? Women with higher education and ability more likely to be in paid work (and to work full-time) Differences reduce with age. Non-employees more heterogeneous group at older ages.

11. Results II: What do imputed wage distributions look like? Imputed mean wage is lower than mean wage for women in six out of the seven surveys (between two and eight per cent lower) Full-time mean is much lower for women (up to 15 per cent) when part-timers and non-employees assigned full-time wage Mean is lower for men at two ages; 33 (1991) and 42 (2000) for NCDS

12. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Imputed and actual log wage distributions, NSHD NSHD women age 26NSHD women age 31

13. Results III: Trends in actual and potential pay ratios

14. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Conclusions Womens average actual and potential pay has increased relative to mens across cohorts, but decreases with age We underestimate cross-cohort improvements in young womens potential pay if we ignore selection into employment Gender pay gaps for full-time workers understate gender inequality in full-time pay opportunities

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16. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Sample sizes NSHD 26 (1972) NSHD 31 (1977) NCDS 23 (1981) NCDS 33 (1991) NCDS 42 (2000) BCS 30 (2000) BCS 34 (2004) Employed83577439213599413539903426 Observed wage73963036553188371336553006 Wage missing96144266411422335420 Missing covariates(255)(267)(1640)(1573)(1764)(1364)(1106) Not employed101787523342185164117811582 Imputed681586111911878571061992 Not imputed115395550 Missing covariates(322)(284)(1074)(993)(776)(713)(586) Total in survey1852164962555784577657715008 2547 8959 7877

17. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk % of women with children, by qual, age and cohort

18. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk % of women with children, by qual, age and cohort

19. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk % mums employed when child < 5 yrs, by qual & cohort

20. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Nearest-neighbour matching based on propensity score Prob(work) = 1 Prob(work) = 0 Not in paid work In paid work Propensity score

21. following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Imputed potential and actual mean wages NSHD 26 (1972) NSHD 31 (1977) NCDS 23 (1981) NCDS 33 (1991) NCDS 42 (2000) BCS 30 (2000) BCS 34 (2004) Women Imputed mean 1.28 (0.02) 1.40 (0.01) 1.49 (0.01) 1.77 (0.01) 1.90 (0.01) 1.92 (0.01) 2.09 (0.01) Mean wage 1.40 (0.01) 1.43 (0.01) 1.52 (0.01) 1.83 (0.01) 1.91 (0.01) 1.96 (0.01) 2.13 (0.01) Employees 80972437923413394938743271 Imputed sample 1490131049114600480649354263 Men Imputed mean 1.78 (0.01) 1.87 (0.01) 1.68 (0.01) 2.19 (0.01) 2.35 (0.01) 2.15 (0.01) 2.36 (0.01) Mean wage 1.78 (0.01) 1.87 (0.01) 1.68 (0.01) 2.20 (0.01) 2.36 (0.01) 2.16 (0.01) 2.37 (0.01) Employees 1568130545863961395241583488 Imputed sample 1735148452184676476348294124